Great write up on this weekends snow storm for some.... Owner and Chief Met is a PSU grad
𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗦𝗘 𝗼𝗳 𝗜-𝟵𝟱 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝘀𝘁... 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲'𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝘆:
Using the NAM to illustrate here, but we could really use anything. As labeled above, we have:
#1: The northern stream energy that dives south toward the lower Tennessee Valley or Deep South and forms a formidable upper level low
#2: The southern stream energy that combines with the upper level low and eventually phases, and forms this storm... this energy is now in the North Pacific
#3: A separate energy piece moving ahead of both that acts to lower heights on the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the system, forcing a farther south close off and phase, and not allowing it to gain latitude at least initially
#4: This is mostly off the map on this Friday morning image, but this is the "kicker" energy that once the system tries to gain latitude Sunday will act to kick the entire system farther east and further offshore.
#3 and #4 play into this as prominently as the main energy pieces. #3 closes the ULL off too far south as the initial ejection/starting point, so it is starting off pretty far south. By the time it does gain latitude, the kicker arrives (#4) and shunts the then-neutral tilted trough farther east....allowing for a scrape of the coast and that's it.
Washington/Baltimore/Philly are virtually unscathed, as well as areas to the NW. You can hope for a miracle if you want, but expect minor shifts only from this point forward. A wise man once said, you can wish in one hand, crap in the other, and see which one fills up first. It's quite alright though... there will be other opportunities in February. Interior areas could use a break quite frankly.
WE STILL COVER Southern NJ, Delaware, and parts of Maryland. So there WILL be maps/discussions/alerts later this week if still warranted. But outside of those areas, a very low chance to see effects.
