So where is Debbie going?
- Thread starter CivilEngineerDog
- Start date
Or, at least, his knowledge of that obscure reference.
And I'm guilty of having recognition, thereof.
As for the current Debbie, I hope she heads due north on that one unlikely path, straight over Huntsville, and relieves herself, loses her water in our vicinity.
droughtku
And I'm guilty of having recognition, thereof.
As for the current Debbie, I hope she heads due north on that one unlikely path, straight over Huntsville, and relieves herself, loses her water in our vicinity.
droughtku
Possibly even low end hurricane force, depending on how much it strengthens and how close it comes to the coast. Debby intensified overnight and that was not expected. This storm is supposed to take a hardleft starting tonight or tomorrow, and I believe there are now tropical storm warnings posted for locations on the MS/AL coastal border, as well as all of the Louisiana coast.
Things got a little more interesting here in BR this morning. At this point it could still turn east or west but so far it keeps creeping slowly north. This is what I woke up to:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The NAM wants to just let it swirl nearly stationary for almost the entire week, the GFS for the most part wants it to go to Florida, and I believe the Euro is saying Texas coast. I'm thinking at the moment it will be the upper Texas coast between Houston and the TX/LA border or maybe even a little farther east.
You'd have to live here to understand the difference I guess. I know people in Panama City that won't set foot in Panama City Beach and vice versa. There's this strange thing about driving across a bridge that makes these two distinct towns that really don't like each other.
Here's the latest discussion. Basically "We don't know the 17 where it is going."
Code:
IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING.
DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3
KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST.
DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS
NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD
SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME.
till Saturday.
The wind has been up and the water has been rough. (Calmer now)
Hope Deb fizzles out.
Will update later.
The wind has been up and the water has been rough. (Calmer now)
Hope Deb fizzles out.
Will update later.
