Depends on if we’re playing to win it or playing for 2nd. Pitch Siary or Ligon and we’ll win. But no way we beat FSU twice. I’d go all in and start Sullivan. Good chance we lose. But if we do win we give ourselves a chance.
So who do we start tomorrow?
- Thread starter patdog
- Start date
I'm not sure it matters. We got 2 more games to play in at most imo. FSU is strong.
Who on our team could start/contribute on their roster? Obviously Reece. Maybe Hines or Sullivan. Then maybe Siary, Pico & Ligon in relief. The next coach is going to have a huge challenge ahead of him in upgrading our talent level.
I'd pitch Ligon tomorrow. But ... as has been said, FSU will be tough to beat once. So don't think it matters.
I agree. I'd start Sully and hope for the best.
I hope we win Sunday and play FSU again.
Hopefully Monday we introduce BOC.
Hopefully Monday we introduce BOC.
I’ve always been of the mindset that in an elimination game, you throw your best guy. Gotta give yourself a chance to advance, otherwise you’re not winning the regional anyway. In other words, can’t beat FSU twice if you don’t get a chance to play them.
Although, when you’re matched up with a lesser opponent, Pat’s approach makes sense.
Although, when you’re matched up with a lesser opponent, Pat’s approach makes sense.
Not saying you’re wrong, but they struggled most of the day yesterday with their #2. We took on their beast today, and our pitching staff walked 13, but struck out 16. So you can pick your battles against FSU. We climbed in a hole, against a top draft pick, but easily was in this game. We just didn’t execute. Wasn’t the game we wanted, but this team can win this Regional … just have to have some cats step up. Ask FSU what happens when you back STATE into a corner in their Regional! We are just gonna need a rain delay lol
I think we can beat NE with someone other than Siary or Ligon. We win 2 games tomorrow, anything goes. If we must pitch one of them at noon, go with Ligon.
Northeastern is the weakest #2 seed I can remember. I get what you’re saying. And I’m sure that’s what we’ll do. But it’s short sighted. We might beat Northwestern with our #5 starter. We absolutely won’t beat Florida State twice unless we start #2 & #3 against them.
NE struggled to beat Bethune today. We should throw Stone Simmons.
Throw Sully. He has done well in mid-week games all season against similar level competition
I don't care but we should be able to win with anybody throwing
Siary. Win this one, worry about the next.
FSU is better than us overall. It doesn’t matter. They are going to win.
We made a regional. Good. Now hire BOC and make sure Parker and GoTro get a job. Move on. It’s time for that.
FSU is better than us overall. It doesn’t matter. They are going to win.
We made a regional. Good. Now hire BOC and make sure Parker and GoTro get a job. Move on. It’s time for that.
Exactly. There’s no reason we shouldn’t be able to score 10 runs vs their #3 starter. And they’ve scored 6 in 2 games.
We can’t beat FSU twice?? We absolutely can! You ran into a GEM as their starter today. We had a shot all game, no matter how bad yall think it got. That lineup wasn’t lethal by any stretch. Their #1 is done. Their #2 Burnt his stuff yesterday …. Have a little faith boys!! Granted you need a Bednar to come the hell out of nowhere. You cats of little faith. BOC was watching
Agree with Sullivan. If we lose with him, who cares.
if you give yourself a 75% chance to win with him then 35% and 35% for each of the next two, you’re still coming in at 9% to win the thing.
if you bump that to 85% with siary, then 35% and 15% against FSU, it drops to 4%.
obviously pulling the win chances out of my ***, but the principle holds. Would imagine much lower chance to beat FSU with our 5 instead of our 3, and we’re better than Northeastern with anyone pitching
if you give yourself a 75% chance to win with him then 35% and 35% for each of the next two, you’re still coming in at 9% to win the thing.
if you bump that to 85% with siary, then 35% and 15% against FSU, it drops to 4%.
obviously pulling the win chances out of my ***, but the principle holds. Would imagine much lower chance to beat FSU with our 5 instead of our 3, and we’re better than Northeastern with anyone pitching
We just don't have any dominant pitching. But I agree about not using our top two guys against NE. You play to win the whole thing. Slim chances of that but that's why you play the game. Anything is possible.
Last edited:
Of course it is. We finish 2nd. And then tell ourselves that 2nd is still a pretty good season. Maybe if this thing with O’Connor falls through we should just take the interim tag off of Parker.
This is exactly how we should be approaching it. I’d put the odds more like 50% * 30% * 40% = 6% chance of advancing if we start a midweek guy (we’d have the advantage Monday of starting a weekend pitcher vs a midweek guy). If we start Siary, it’s more like 90% * 30% * 10% =2.7%
I disagree. You have to do what gives you the best chance to win the tournament even if that lessens the chance you win the next game. To win the tournament you are going to have to throw midweek at some point. it makes more sense to do that against NE than FSU.
The only thing is, those formulas don’t account for human emotion. Momentum, confidence, things like that. Plus the message it sends to the team.
In theory, I do agree though.
You know all you need to know about the matchups. We’re wasting our best pitcher vs an inferior team. We’ll wish we had him available when we play Florida State.
I feel a revenge asskicking coming on today. Then FSU will wax them by double digits.
It’s certainly possible but my gut has us winning big today. I think we will put up runs every game we have left
We aren't going to be playing tomorrow.
Only thing starting for us tomorrow is ace's uhaul taking him to red stick.
Only thing starting for us tomorrow is ace's uhaul taking him to red stick.
Did Florida State use a weekend guy against Bethune-Cookman? I'm assuming they didn't, and they still have their 2nd and 3rd weekend guys left to go.
D1 says 54% NE win today. Who knows their data.
I suspect we’re all overconfident in our percentages.