and really interesting to read and talk about. I suppose we'll have all the answers in a couple days, but for now we can speculate and hope not to get screwed too badly.
Pot 1:
I agree with your breakdowns generally. The only thing I would add is that South Africa, while the most attractive team on paper, will have tons of home and possible referee support. And while Italy could get it together at any time, they had a disappointing Euro 2008 and have done nothing but age since then. Sure, they were undefeated in qualifying, but they probably had the weakest group outside of the Netherlands. I'm not sure of their firepower anymore either, Luca Toni doesn't even play for FC Bayern anymore. Scored something less than a goal a game in Euro 2008 too, I think. When it comes down to it, I'd rather have South Africa, but I wouldn't be shaking with Italy. Argentina, if they can just play, could be dangerous. Maradona is a nut, but once they get their talent on the field, could be dangerous. At the top of the pot, I'd place Spain, England, and Germany, who have all been playing well. I'd put Brazil (sporadic in qualifying) and Netherlands (trouble on defense, tremendously weak qualifying group) a bit lower. With Brazil seeming to take it back a notch, the Dutch might be the most entertaining to watch in the whole tournament.
Pot 2:
Haven't seen much other than results, don't suppose it matters until we have a potential bracket anyway. Australia was very competitive, and Mexico turned it around after struggling to start. Of all the teams in the World Cup, your middle tier teams won't frighten anyone, and a New Zealand in your group would be positively delightful.
Pot 3:
I'd rearrange your Pot 3 a bit, bumping Cameroon and Nigeria up a tier. Don't watch much South American qualifying so no comments there, other than to say avoid Chile. Cameroon and Nigeria are solid, Cameroon having the better time lately, quick look at the Fifa rankings has them at 11th. Watched the Ivory Coast - Germany match myself, don't know how much you can say about it. First match after Enke's suicide, lots of reserves on both sides, Germany subbed keepers at the half, crazy goal by Neuer/Eboue, no Drogba for the Ivory Coast either (and yet, he looked perfectly healthy against Arsenal on Sunday). All that to say, I think they are a strong team as well. I watch the Algeria - Egypt game as well, they didn't look very impressive at all. Perhaps I'm bashing Ghana too much, but I saw a game or two of theirs and they're pretty weak up front, at least players that play anywhere. Essien in the middle of the field, but up front they have nobody I've heard of. And as it seems our difficulties are in the defensive side of the field, I'd prefer trying to handle them than a Drogba or Eto'o.
Pot 4:
Watch lots of European qualifying and I agree on the rankings except I might switch Serbia and Greece. I'd actually rather play France than Portugal, they seem to be playing better (once Ronaldo was injured!) and France is in a massive decline. Final in 2006 to winless in EM 2008 to playoffs and the Hand of Gaul in qualifying. Denmark topped probably the toughest group, with Portugal, Sweden, and Hungary in there as well. Switzerland disappointed in EM 2008, but has turned it aroud under Hitzfeld and lost in qualifying only to Luxembourg (I'm assumed an anomaly). Greece, while never exciting anyone - including their fans - plays very solid defense and can hit well on the counter. That spells trouble against us - unable to score and defense shipping in easy goals. Perhaps I should give Serbia a bit more respect, but they missed out completely in 2008 and topped a group whose biggest competition was faltering France and - wait for it - Austria. Slovenia's in only on away goals so I might prefer them, though beating Russia is no small feat.
