I think K will go with the best 5 most of the time. Which will mean:
1. Tre
2. Ellis / Baker
3. O'Connell / Javin (4 - Moore to 3) / Bolden (5 - Carey moves to 4)
4. Moore
5. Carey
I think Ellis will be one of the better outside shooters and be able to drive and score with his quickness. And, his defensive quickness will be an asset over O'Connell. There may be an occasion when O'Connell or Baker (if he starts to get hot shooting at some point) starts over Ellis if the latter slumps.
Even if Hurt comes to Duke, I don't see him starting much. He would have to be very good from 3. I see him as a 3-4 year player (I just don't think he's soon to be NBA material) and could become really good if he learns to shoot the 3 consistently at the college level.