Why? There’s a difference between legal immigration and illegal immigration. Legal immigration isn’t the problem, legal immigrants also don’t fall off a 60 foot bridge and refuse medical treatment.
Stock Market and tariffs
- Thread starter BankerCat12
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I’m off work today, the issue is our politicians have sold out the working class.
That’s the entire point of the tariffs.
Yes, we get paid more, what we did was drop any barriers to companies moving. No tariff on cheaper made product, workers are paid less, less environmental standard, less worker rights standard,. Ship product back here for free, sell at a high price.
The unemployment ignores anyone that has used up their unemployment benefits, it counts absurd hourly numbers as being employed. Much like inflation numbers have been altered to show less inflation over the years.
I dont think you have a grasp on manufacturing and how many people are required to operate a plant. Even automated plants. Of course it won’t be the number of the 50’s and 60’s, but it still takes an army of people.
It ignores if you've used up unemployment and stopped looking for work. That's the point I've been making for awhile about manufacturing and farming in this country. How are we supposed to measure the unemployed if you aren't seeking employment? Hourly employees who have lost their job and are collecting unemployment benefits are included and then may be excluded later depending on other factors but are typically considered employed if actively working. I'm not sure that that has changed much since we started measuring unemployment.
You may be right, especially as it pertains to automation. I'm expressing a purely anecdotal viewpoint which may not be indicative of the experiences of others. I get that. I suppose we will see when it starts happening.
Listen, if you think there would be a problem finding workers for manufacturing in this country I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
Only 2 types of people wouldn’t be interested as I said earlier. Those that have a better job and those that would rather get high.
Hopefully we’ll find out
NAM (National Association of Manufacturers) estimates a labor shortage of up to 3.8 million workers by 2030. Maybe we are all lazy and happy in our cushy jobs.
To me it seems like the perfect alternative to the narrative that you need to spend $40-100k on an education directly out of high school, but that mantra may be hard to break.
You should tell that to the National Association of Manufacturers, because according to them there already is an issue filling the available manufacturing jobs in this country.
Apple discussed bringing some of their manufacturing here when Obama was in office. They concluded the country didn’t have enough industrial engineers for them to build and open factories here. Apple alone would need every single industrial engineer in this country and then some. We simply don’t have the people.
There is a lot of reasons coal will not come back, but most notably many utilities have converted coal-fired steam plants over to gas turbine because gas is cheaper, burns much cleaner so they don't have buy and maintain all the pollution control equipment, or manage fly ash. No utility in their right mind would build a new coal plant, or for that matter spend much money extending the life of existing plants. Besides nat gas, the new small modular reactors (SMR) are coming and will be online in the next few years, and renewables continue to extend their market share, again, cleaner, much less maintenance. Investing in coal right now would be synonymous to investing in the horse and buggy industry in 1920.
Here is but one of many articles discussing the issue of manufacturing and its workforce. It discusses many points that have been talked about in this thread. It is a complex issue.
I’ve accumulated shares of TLN, GEV and VST, did have CEG until they went for the slower large nuclear facility plan. Trump is OK with Solar, not with wind.
However, I haven’t closed my mind to the persons currently in power pushing Coal, oil and nat gas until it plays out. Lots of things have to play out before I invest my money, not interested yet in Autonomous or all electric vehicles, love my hybrid Prius, though.
Well, if they say so…
I agree, there’s no need for a college degree to work in manufacturing.
The manufacturers don’t want to bring jobs back, they’re perfectly happy the way things are now.
Just so we’re straight, you’re arguing against bringing manufacturing back to US, and against any attempt to do so?
Because you have no faith in Americans filling those jobs?
Life expectancy has started decreasing, debt exploded, citizens for the first time in history believe their kids lives won’t be better than their own, health insurance rates have gone out the roof and on and on.
All this occurred since NAFTA, and none of you think it’s related?
We shot ourselves in the foot, it’s time to do something different. Y’all have a nice night.
We've seen the coal argument from Trump before. Find me 10 Gen Zers willing to dig for coal in 2025 and beyond. Find me any millennials willing. Gen Xers certainly won't be lining up. There's an American fantasy continually pushed by older folks, particularly online, that millions are just dying to work in dank *** warehouses and factories for their entire lives or work with coal in rural areas. These jobs, namely anything to do with coal, can't just be forced on individuals. IMO most believe they can do better and if that's a possibly in their lives, that's the direction they'll go in.
75 countries have contacted us for deals and we’ve secured trillions in domestic production. Now enough deals are in the works that Trump has backed down and actually stated a pause for negotiation. And guess what happened... the market jumped. Please just sit this discussion out.
Piss on coal. May its highly carcinogenic off gassing never come back for the sake of making America healthy again.
Retired and looking for investments, not work. Few jobs are Clean as a driven snow.
Trump got spooked because the bond market was on its way to causing a gigantic problem and he caved. And I'm not exactly sure what your definition of "secured trillions in domestic production" is, but I assure you we've secured jack **** at this point. Remember when Trump secured a giant investment from Foxconn in Wisconsin during his first term? And remember how at the end of the day absolutely nothing came of that? You will just see a repeat of that because onshoring new manufacturing would take longer than Trump's term. Companies are going to just wait it out.
Apple doesn't use China for production because labor cost is low. That shipped sailed like a decade ago. They use China for production because China has better factories, they have a larger number of engineers, and they have all the tooling required that Apple needs. That would take at least a decade to bring the the US. And Apple has said in the past there are literally not enough engineers in the US for them to be able to do so.
You guys can keep believing every word that Trump sends out on Truth Social or wherever he posts now, but there will be no resurgence in American manufacturing.
If you really think companies are truly committing to trillions when tariff policy flip flops with the wind I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. Not a single sane person would do that when there's this much uncertainty about what things will look like even a one quarter from now.
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I’m not arguing against anything. I do not know the answer to what would happen if there were sizable increases in manufacturing plants and capacity in this country. I am just uncertain about whether there is a willing and able domestic workforce available to fill positions needed. Hopefully, the answer is a resounding YES !! That would be GREAT !!
I do know that I went on a road trip to Western Kentucky with retired friends from work and we learned that two (2) separate companies wanted to bring plants in, but abandoned their plans after feasibility surveys indicated they would not be able to staff a workforce. Now, I do not know if this was just this area, or a general problem everywhere, but I remember being surprised when hearing this on our trip. It was several years ago … before 2020 and the Covid disruption.
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I'm not on truth social and I watch the markets on cnbc. If you want to dispute what I've said, prove it. Prove the 75 nations haven't come to the table, and prove the domestic investment isn't happening. The bond markets could have been an influence as well as the idiots whining about the "crash" happening. But that's nothing but liberal speculation.
In fairness to his point though, what is the proof that 75 countries are at the table, because Trump said they want to kiss his *** the other night? In the same speech he said he took "100's of billions of dollars from the Chinese" with his 1st administration tariffs, which still further proves he has no idea how they work (or he thinks his supporters don't). So forgive most of us who think he may be stretching the truth about that number. I think southeast Asian countries and the EU would be happy to talk deals, so there is some truth to it.
It's pretty easy to see that Bessent and Elon convinced him that Navarro was wrong and that he couldn't afford the political capital right now to keep the tariffs in place. You can call it caving or you can call it a negotiating tactic, but the timeline of reporting about Bessent meeting with him on Sunday and the Elon/Navarro war of words on Monday seem to align with that.
Bessent saying "it was always the plan" is kind of a cop out, but I'll be glad to accept that over sticking with the original plan.
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As for the investments coming to the US, check this out.
TSMC - Spending $65 billion to open a new factory this year to create micro chips. That plant opens this year and is largely driven by the CHIPS act. Announced plans with Trump for another $100B for four new factories in the next four years, but again, largely because of the incentives provided by the CHIPS act.
OPENAI/ORACLE/SOFTBANK - $100B announced on January 21st to open, you guessed it, chip manufacturing plants for AI. Sam Altman was in negotiations with the UAE as far back as 2023 and stated he had secured most of the funding back in February of 2024. It's a savvy business move to buddy up with Trump on his inauguration day and give him a win.
Eli Lilly - Announced $27B to continue expansion in the US in February of this year. They've invested $50B between 2020-2024 and stated this was a continuation of their long term strategy.
Apple is the only other commitment Trump mentioned that appears to be driven by concerns from the tariffs since they are so heavily wrapped up with China (but trying to move to India). But, I'd also argue that they are moving here because of the incentives provided by the CHIPS act as well, which is shown by the fact that nearly all of the companies Trump listed are coming here to build servers or CHIPS for AI.
I'm not saying Trump is lying about companies wanting to invest in the US, but claiming it's because of the tariffs he put in place last week is extremely misleading. I think most of these companies want to avoid tariffs as part of their business strategy but think it's at least equally true that the US is a more lucrative investment option because of the CHIPS act. Either way, it's great for America regardless of who gets the credit.
TSMC - Spending $65 billion to open a new factory this year to create micro chips. That plant opens this year and is largely driven by the CHIPS act. Announced plans with Trump for another $100B for four new factories in the next four years, but again, largely because of the incentives provided by the CHIPS act.
OPENAI/ORACLE/SOFTBANK - $100B announced on January 21st to open, you guessed it, chip manufacturing plants for AI. Sam Altman was in negotiations with the UAE as far back as 2023 and stated he had secured most of the funding back in February of 2024. It's a savvy business move to buddy up with Trump on his inauguration day and give him a win.
Eli Lilly - Announced $27B to continue expansion in the US in February of this year. They've invested $50B between 2020-2024 and stated this was a continuation of their long term strategy.
Apple is the only other commitment Trump mentioned that appears to be driven by concerns from the tariffs since they are so heavily wrapped up with China (but trying to move to India). But, I'd also argue that they are moving here because of the incentives provided by the CHIPS act as well, which is shown by the fact that nearly all of the companies Trump listed are coming here to build servers or CHIPS for AI.
I'm not saying Trump is lying about companies wanting to invest in the US, but claiming it's because of the tariffs he put in place last week is extremely misleading. I think most of these companies want to avoid tariffs as part of their business strategy but think it's at least equally true that the US is a more lucrative investment option because of the CHIPS act. Either way, it's great for America regardless of who gets the credit.
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Foxconn in Wisconsin employees over a 1000 people, while much smaller than the 13000 claimed originally, 1100 employees is not "nothing".
You can disagree with Trumps actions on tariffs, but those companies most definitely were not coming back the way we operated for the past 40 years. People voted to do something different.
The CHIPS act was a 280 billion dollar bill, tariffs are free.
There is a Uranium enrichment plant being built in Western KY right now, I hope they can find people able and willing to do the work....
OT: But speaking of "coal coming back" (I will believe it when I see it), I am 100% in favor of the proposed resort development near Red River Gorge. A few years ago, my wife and I went hiking at RRG on a beautiful Sunday and had a very hard time finding a parking place. Every lot was full and the one lane roads were lined with parked cars.
And here is the thing, at least half, if not more, were from out of state. Yet, there is almost no where to stay, or get a decent restaurant meal with a beer in the area. There is plenty of money to be made from that kind of tourism, and while some of those jobs may not be high paying jobs, it is a lot better than 40% unemployment rate prevailing in some of the area.
And here is the thing, at least half, if not more, were from out of state. Yet, there is almost no where to stay, or get a decent restaurant meal with a beer in the area. There is plenty of money to be made from that kind of tourism, and while some of those jobs may not be high paying jobs, it is a lot better than 40% unemployment rate prevailing in some of the area.
I think you're too hyperfocused on Trump.....and probably attributing too much to the US executive branch in general. My comment was directed at the US world position in general. Sure, Trump's administration is affecting some countries/areas negatively, but it's also affecting many positively. But if you pull back and view from the standpoint of US/global, we are still the world leader. There are other countries who are rising fast......and, yes, we're likely starting a decline........but as of right now we're still the world leader. And if we can negotiate better trade deals globally, while either slowing or reducing our national debt, while boosting our own GDP, while reducing the barriers that promote new avenues of growth.......it only helps our position, not harms it.
But once again, the approach that Trump is taking is very risky. That's why I mention it #1 in my previous long post.
Which changes absolutely nothing about what I stated. Companies that have been investing in the US for the past three years and continuing to do so, now with the added benefit of avoiding tariffs, isn't the same as announcing plans when tariffs are announced to avoid said tariffs.
I think Trump's insistence on tariff policy played a role in the decision for some of the companies to continue investing here but it's also a bit weird to consider that way when you think that many of the plants they announce may not be ready until he's about to leave office and the next president may or may not even keep the tariffs in place.
The bulk of the money awarded was given when Biden was headed out the door, after the election. That screams corruption...one way is giving Govt money to people, and the other way doesn't.
From your article linked "However, companies won't receive CHIPS Act funding until they've reached specific project milestones". That seems pretty common sense to me.
For example. In Charlotte NC, our state government gave Chiquita a massive tax exemption to move some of its operations here. Thankfully NC included a clawback provision to keep Chiquita here for at least 10 years. The problem? It was still more of an incentive to move here temporarily, claim the tax breaks/benefits, then move away later.
So, yes, I'm for our government confirming the commitment is actually in place in the form of milestones/construction before awarding all of the promised funds.
Weird that you would consider that fraudulent.
I completely missed your last statement. Just to clarify, you think the government incentivizing businesses to come to the US through tax breaks and grants is a bad thing?
The Dave Ramsey Foundation has done numerous studies and analysis of the middle/lower classes feeling the pinch. Yes, there is absolutely an issue with lack of rising salaries and rising costs of necessities, but the largest issue BY FAR is cultural and decision making.......by a large margin.....
For example,
Often people say things like the following, "In the 1950s a single middle income family could afford a house, etc, etc, etc. But now you can't do that.......Look at the prices of the house, cars, etc.........."
In the 1950s, the average male would graduate HS and immediately start working full time somewhere.....let's say a factory. So, from agea 18-23 they are making good money and getting a head start. Today often, a large portion of people aged 18-23 are not making good money but trying to fumble through college for a gen-ed degree that won't amount to much.
In the 1950s the average debt/bills/costs would be a mortgage, a single car payment, and utilities.....no credit cards and no personal/education debt. People didn't go out to eat much at all. Much of the groceries were canned and boxed goods as opposed to fresh/organic, lots of choices, etc. People drove an average of about 6,000-8,000 miles/year on the 1 family car. Now a days people feel the need to have 2-4 cars per household and drive 15,000-20,000 miles/year. There were no cell phone or internet bills. No costco, amazon, gym memberships. No TV/streaming bills. Houses were tiny.....and most didn't have AC at that time (AC wasn't widespread in houses until the 60's and beyond). Cars didn't have AC, tons of safety equipment, computers, complicated drivetrains, etc. People could do a lot of the maintenance on their houses/cars themselves. No $7 coffee or ice cream runs.
People were more likely to relocate for their jobs so that they could live. They didn't try to live in a high cost urban area on a poor budget. Kids didn't get new clothes every year....and often lived off hand-me-downs. The average number of clothing items in the average mother's closet was <10 items/dresses. Vacations were low budget and often were staycations. The parents of the people in the 1950s went through the Great Depression. As a result, the people of the 1950s were conditioned to save (money and junk) what they could whenever they could. On, and on, and on, and on.
The point being that 95% of all the expenses that I listed above are choices.....not necessities. And there are so many more that I didn't even list. These are all barriers to wealth. The wealth inequalities that we see today would still be there.....as they will always be there.......but it wouldn't nearly as pronounced as they are if better choices were made.
A tax exemption isn't the same as giving Companies govt money. The CHIPS ACT was 280 billion dollars of govt money received from tax payers. A tax exemption costs you and I nothing.
The appearance of corruption comes from the awarding of Billions of dollars when the admin is heading out the door.
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A tax exemption is not the same as giving companies money from a 280 billion dollar bill.
Again, tariffs cost nothing, the incentive is the US market. The CHIPS ACT has an incentive of the Govt paying the manufacturer to come, and they also get the incentive of the US market.
Why are we arguing this, yes, it's "free" to tariff someone, except it isn't because consumers pay for tariffs, so we're paying either way.
Do you agree or disagree that all of the companies Trump listed are coming here because he announced tariffs in the past two months? Because that's what he claimed and I pointed out why that is unlikely true. I admitted that it's probably a cause moving forward, but there were also incentives prior to his tariffs that resulted in an uptick in AI/chip/server manufacturing plants coming to the US.
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