Zero issue? We’re 37 trillion dollars in debt, the middle class is dying, 100000 people a year are dying of overdose.
The wealth of the middle class had shifted to the elite and foreign nations. Sounds peachy
Stock Market and tariffs
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The wealth of the middle class had shifted to the elite and foreign nations. Sounds peachy
Two days ago Navarro told us this was our long term plan. This was not to get people to the table but to rather reverse the trade deficits we are suffering. We would generate trillions in wealth and transform our economy with reshoring.
Yesterday, after being insulted by Navarro, Elon called him a moron and Peter Retarrdo. A report indicated that Elon met with Trump yesterday as well. Bessent met with Trump on Sunday in an attempt to cool the markets.
So which is it? Navarro was lying, an elaborate plan to push the stock market to the verge of recession concerns to "start" negotiations or the plan all along (that everyone listed has denied)?
By the way, does anyone want to bet who made the most money today? Hint : some folks in this thread would love to give them a huge tax break.
And you see the last week as clever negotiating strategy? By putting tariffs on uninhabited islands? And dropping all but one like a hot potato? Wow, I thought you were smarter than that.
Can you admit that Trump maybe blew this one? And is wanting a do over, which is okay if he would just admit it every now and then.
Navarro isn’t the President.
The same people that made the most today are the same ones that lost the most in the prior days.
He didn’t drop all but one, he paused them on nations that were willing to negotiate.
If only we'd seen this coming.
Hes the China hawk hand picked by Jared who shares Trumps love of tariffs. He went to jail for Trump, his opinion matters. Unfortunately for him, I think the opinions of Bessent, Lutnick and Elon outweighed his preference to keep the tariffs in place.
Allow me to ask it this way, do we have more or less leverage today than we did a week ago?
All of which has zero to do with a trade deficit. There's nothing inherently wrong with trade deficits. This has been repeated again and again and again. You simply cannot avoid having trade deficits with certain countries.
Bringing manufacturing back to the US to close certain trade deficits won't magically make the debt go away. But chipping away at other country's faith in the security of buying US debt, which is actually happening, is surely a good way to make the debt problem a lot worse a lot quicker.
Some folks must be conflating budget deficits with trade deficits.
In fairness, Trump did say in 2017 that trade deficits were the cause of our 20T (at the time) debt, so maybe that's where the confusion is coming from.
Trade deficits can contribute to the national debt but the majority is from budget deficits.
In fairness, Trump did say in 2017 that trade deficits were the cause of our 20T (at the time) debt, so maybe that's where the confusion is coming from.
Trade deficits can contribute to the national debt but the majority is from budget deficits.
Wrong, it’s all tied together.
So, unless the us blue collar worker takes it up the ***, other nations won’t have in the us?
You do realize how absurd you sound right?
I’m under no illusion that all manufacturing is coming back, but there is a middle ground where some can and will.
No, it’s all tied together. The more jobs that are lost equals more dependency on the govt to help those people.
The more govt gets involved, the higher prices become, because well, the govt is involved.
It’s all tied together.
Who cares who he is, he isn’t the President nor one of his cabinet members.
What leverage did we lose by going into good faith negotiations. They’ve got 90 days to hammer it out.
But jobs aren't being lost on a whole. You're acting like unemployment numbers are 10% or something because of all the manufacturing jobs that have been lost over the decades. But those lost jobs have been replaced by other types of jobs. And replacing a fraction of those lost manufacturing jobs with new factories that are largely automated won't really change the calculus in any meaningful way if your concern is people being on government assistance.
Certainty goes a long way. US businesses are getting whiplash trying to figure out their path forward based on these on-again off-again tariff threats. It’s reckless, and costly, if’n you ask me.
Sure, but we aren't losing the types of manufacturing jobs that they are talking about bringing back since 2008. The economy is different now and, as many have pointed out, most folks aren't going to want to do that work over the service sector jobs we've replaced manufacturing with.
Plus, as has also been noted, those jobs will be brought back to be automated. Not exactly a need to have 5 million workers for.
The more times Trump flip flops on these tariffs the less other countries view this all as good faith negotiating. The uncertainty with all of this is also horrible for the economy. You can't plan investment or make actual business decisions with all of this going on. One day your supply chain is fine, the next day you have to prepare for large tariffs going into effect within a week, the next day there are rumors of a delay, the next day those rumors are "fake news", the next day there's actually a 90 day delay.
The US is the world economic leader because of our stability. We're quickly throwing that all away.
Good lord…what kind of people do you deal with on a day to day basis that wouldn’t want to work in a good paying manufacturing job that gave them hope for the future?
2 types, one that already has a good job or an addict.
Two things :
1.) You vastly underestimate how Trump utilizes his advisors. He will often act when advised by a person he trusts (I. E. Laura Loomer) . In spite of his actual cabinet members making it clear this isn't the path to take, he opted for at Navarros insistence.
2.) Good faith negotiations are going to a trade partner and discussing the problems you see with trade. If you don't get the results you want, you can consider the threat of tariff as an option. Wide scale (and clearly not real) massive tariffs aren't good faith and I highly doubt our trade partners feel like this is happening in good faith.
Ultimately, I think the bond markets, Republican congress men and women and Scott Bessent walked us off this ledge.
Did you not read what I wrote? People aren't going to be fleeing cushy service jobs for manufacturing jobs unless the pay is unreal. Also, it's not the same type of manufacturing coming back.
If unemployment were much higher, you'd have an excellent point, but it doesn't make much sense in the actual context of our current economy.
Hell, maybe that was the plan all along. Massive unemployent due to recession and pushing everyone into robot repair men.
I’d argue that it’s far more ridiculous to keep kicking the can down the road on this issue so that we can have cheaper crap while the working class slides farther into an abyss.
Let us know how stable it was the last 4 years. Inflation, unemployment, health care costs, millions of illegals weighing down the complete economic table thanks to govn't assistance, etc.....
You’re right, people with cushy jobs won’t, but there’s millions of people without cushy jobs. There’s towns all over the country where manufacturing plants have left that have been left behind, those people would crawl over broken glass for a plant to move in.
Unemployment numbers are a facade now.
They’ve got 90 days to hammer out a deal, that will mean they’ve had 6 months of realizing the US has a problem with what they’ve been doing. Plus Trump ran on it for a year.
History lesson.....manufacturing has changed year to year, decade to decade. Also, despite the robotics, AI, etc.....people will always be needed.....see TMMC as a local example.
Few takeaways:
- This is Trump to a T. He loves chaos, the world talking about him, and doing things very publically.
- Small business owners have likely been shitting bricks the last few days. People don't want to live on constant edge and fear of uncertainty because the POTUS wants life to be his personal show filled with drama. Going about it in this manner wasn't necessary and only caused headaches around the globe.
- Peter Navarro is apparently a retard. Folks are concerned about real life **** and a bored billionaire who craves just as much attention as Trump is calling one of the president's advisors a retard like he's in the fifth grade.
- finally, I know we've got some Trump loyalists here but if Biden had went about this the exact way Trump has, those loyalists would be raging right now. I get it - politics and whatnot but it's true.
Glad things have calmed down for a bit but this whole thing was pretty damn sloppy.
- This is Trump to a T. He loves chaos, the world talking about him, and doing things very publically.
- Small business owners have likely been shitting bricks the last few days. People don't want to live on constant edge and fear of uncertainty because the POTUS wants life to be his personal show filled with drama. Going about it in this manner wasn't necessary and only caused headaches around the globe.
- Peter Navarro is apparently a retard. Folks are concerned about real life **** and a bored billionaire who craves just as much attention as Trump is calling one of the president's advisors a retard like he's in the fifth grade.
- finally, I know we've got some Trump loyalists here but if Biden had went about this the exact way Trump has, those loyalists would be raging right now. I get it - politics and whatnot but it's true.
Glad things have calmed down for a bit but this whole thing was pretty damn sloppy.
I agree that government deficit spending needs to stop and I agree the national debt as a whole is a problem that is going to take 2 maybe 3 generations to solve. I disagree that government spending alone creates problems. We need infrastructure and a military and schools etc etc. All of that spending within reason I believe is a good thing and something worthy of our tax dollars. But wasteful spending should be cut out and limited as much as possible and government should be run as efficiently as possible.
As for the 23% I just took the difference of GDP from 2008 and 2024 as per FRED, then subtracted out all federal government spending for the respective years. Then calculated the percentage increase.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
I’d like to know how much of the walking back was due to the bond market melting down due to overlevered hedge funds Powell would no doubt bail out.
A new emergency round of QE to clean up hedge fund balance sheets would be devastating to Trump’s message, and Powell doesn’t seem to give a **** what Trump wants.
A new emergency round of QE to clean up hedge fund balance sheets would be devastating to Trump’s message, and Powell doesn’t seem to give a **** what Trump wants.
Here's one that hopes large parts of the world realize from this that they need to count on themselves over us. Just who do we count on besides us?
Biden can't spell DOW much less understand it.....so, no....not true.
Unemployment has hovered around 4% (excluding Covid years) from 2017 to 2025. Inflaion was lower in the US than nearly every other industrialized nation. Global inflation is a real thing and was largely caused (as Bill pointed out earlier in this thread) by all of the COVID stimulus spending and your boy Putin invading Ukraine.
I'd love to see your data on the illegal immigrant government assistance statistics.
So unemployment under Trump is real and unemployment under Biden is fake. You got evidence for that?
And, as you and others have pointed out, we would need to train that work force for the "new" type of manufacturing that would be coming to America. You going to allow unions to come back too to help workers establish themselves in this new manufacturing economy?
I worked for a bio-medical manufacturing company during the summer in college, assisted with the development of a manufacturing plant about a decade ago (ceramics) and have two of my best friends as plant managers for a company called Freudenberg (textiles). You know who predominantly worked in those plants? Immigrants. Mostly Indian and Latin American and even some eastern European (Freudenberg).
US workers, by in large, seemed to want to avoid that type of work even though it paid well. The labor statistics from 2023 show that immigrants were more likely to hold manufacturing jobs than native born persons.
So, yes, I'm sure they would say they'd like a better job, but they sure aren't taking it.
Why argue the actual merits of the point when you can just sling stupid political talking points, right? I haven't argued a single one of those things yet you're bringing them up for no reason.
Wonder why?
Also, are AEI, Thomas Sowell and about 50 other conservative economists who think this was a bad idea suddenly liberals?
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And just today I set a personal record for the most money I've ever made in one day in the stock market. Of course, last Thursday and Friday were the 2 worst days I've ever had. Both records set by doing nothing.
At least it has been certainly entertaining if nothing else.
But I can see the usual suspects are beginning to take over this thread which has going on for 7 or 8 pages and has been a good and informative discussion, so carry on gentlemen.
At least it has been certainly entertaining if nothing else.
But I can see the usual suspects are beginning to take over this thread which has going on for 7 or 8 pages and has been a good and informative discussion, so carry on gentlemen.
I didn’t differentiate between admins, unemployment numbers are a facade now.
What type of “ new” manufacturing do you think occurs? Seriously, you keep repeating this like it’s a mystery that can only be solved by cheap foreign labor.
If workers want a Union then by all means allow them to organize.
You mean illegal aliens were hired over citizens is a surprise to you, no ****, we’ve been telling you this for years. You think several workers that fell from the bridge in Baltimore that collapsed, but refused medical attention didn’t seem odd to you? They were here illegally.
UKO: Canadian border is a threat, Trump colluding with Russia is not real despite Trump imposing no tariffs on them, COVID was a hoax, Imposing arbitrary and capricious tariffs won't hurt our economy/standing in the world/relationship with allies, Trump is mentally competent.
Forgive us if we dismiss your thoughts on anything and everything as ********.
I'm interested in why you believe unemployment is a facade. Is it due to the labor force population rate? That's down 5% since pre-COVID. Or do you think the equation is fuzzy math now to make the market seem better than it is. Apologies for assuming you meant to differentiate administrations, it's something I've seen before and seems to be a common refrain. Shouldn't have assumed.
The new manufacturing I'm talking about is the automation driven factory that is supposedly going to bring textile manufacturing, parts manufacturing and refinement back to the US. The manufacturing I worked in was a human running a machine but Lutnick and many others are indicating it will be completely different and will revolutionize our economy. I'd welcome that so long as it doesn't mean citizens are cut out in the process. I also don't think of it as some pipe dream, I know it's real, just interested to see how it will pan out.
I only mention unions because the breakup of unions and NAFTA completely obliterated that sector and ran off good paying jobs. I'm glad to hear receptiveness to worker protections.
Most of the people I had worked with came to the US to work in that facility specifically and did so on a work visa. The company I worked with in college (Biomerieux) actually had to recruit abroad to fill positions. The same is happening on many of our farms (specifically apple farms in the PNW) as they struggle to recruit and retain citizens. It's brutal and repetitive work that I think many citizens aren't fond of. I'm not calling them lazy, but it's also tough to understand why someone would rather be unemployed than work a hard job. Some farms became famous for offering higher wages (as much as $25 an hour) to any worker during the run up after COVID and still struggled to fill openings. So I don't think manufacturing and/or farming is just grabbing the cheapest labor possible when hiring immigrants. Construction, on the other hand, has a major issue with this. Specifically hiring one legal immigrant and then paying him enough to pay several illegal immigrants under the table as a contractor.
I picked tobacco as a kid for a family down the road, I get why no one wants to do that work.
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My counterpoint here is then: what's the solution? Beck isn't wrong in that we either 1. don't want to do that work or 2. want to be paid a lot more than others to do the work.
I mean, kind of the irony in this thread.. it's a bunch of us sitting at our desks, in comfy chairs, where most of us probably should be working (or at least being productive) and yet we're arguing back and forth for hours about things like trade and who is going to do factory/manual labor.
I find it a bit telling that the comment you responded to just mentioned "immigrants" and you immediately jumped to them being illegal.
The market was in a very tenuous position last night and this morning with the 10-year yield climbing combined with the expectation that tariffs were going to be inflationary .... that's a really bad combination.
Fortunately, we were given a reprieve today ... albeit for 90 days to theoretically work out trade deals with most countries, likely sans China. Whether today's hyper-spike holds, will depend on what happens during this supposed pause.
The charts are really messed up ... though that engulfing candle today obviously helped. But if a tweet or a post can create this degree of volatility, that's not a good signal for market stability, typical of bear market behavior ... hypothetically it could go the other way with a tweet/post ... let's hope that doesn't occur.
1st Q earnings are going to be very interesting listening to companies trying to give forward guidance with all of the tariff uncertainty. Thus, given I am along in years, I opted for heavy investments at the temporary bottom of recent, in JEPQ. That's less susceptible to earnings reports than an individual equity, and the dividend combined with hopeful growth is attractive for an old dude.
Fortunately, we were given a reprieve today ... albeit for 90 days to theoretically work out trade deals with most countries, likely sans China. Whether today's hyper-spike holds, will depend on what happens during this supposed pause.
The charts are really messed up ... though that engulfing candle today obviously helped. But if a tweet or a post can create this degree of volatility, that's not a good signal for market stability, typical of bear market behavior ... hypothetically it could go the other way with a tweet/post ... let's hope that doesn't occur.
1st Q earnings are going to be very interesting listening to companies trying to give forward guidance with all of the tariff uncertainty. Thus, given I am along in years, I opted for heavy investments at the temporary bottom of recent, in JEPQ. That's less susceptible to earnings reports than an individual equity, and the dividend combined with hopeful growth is attractive for an old dude.
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