Substitutions on a run?

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
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I have been saying over and over all year. Especially in wins. I am very worried how much will be in the tank at the end of the year.

Matt painter and Tom Izzo would have done EXACTLY what Pike did. They put an artificial cap in minutes. You must use the media timeouts to aid with rest. Players have junk strapped to their body optimizing this stuff.

Was Caleb substituted in the middle of all this? Was that a mistake? Only certain substitutions are OK?

McConnell was subbed for Palmquist... but that wasn't to get Palmquist rest.

Honestly, though, it wasn't too terrible in a vacuum. We went down 7-0 during a short stretch, but Mulcahy/Omoruyi came back in and we pushed the lead back up to 19-12. The bigger hit was when Omoruyi got elbowed by Dickinson and sent to the bench for a second time in the half just a few minutes later, which allowed Michigan to once again close that gap.
 

Shelby65

All-Conference
Apr 1, 2008
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But at least don’t sub prematurely. Let the run go as long as it can. I’d rather make substitutions up 20 v up 10
Please lend Pike your crystal ball then. Would it have gotten to 30-3 if he didn’t sub there? And what if they simply needed rest ? They were obviously playing very good D up to that point.
 

bethlehemfan

Heisman
Sep 6, 2003
14,897
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McConnell was subbed for Palmquist... but that wasn't to get Palmquist rest.

Honestly, though, it wasn't too terrible in a vacuum. We went down 7-0 during a short stretch, but Mulcahy/Omoruyi came back in and we pushed the lead back up to 19-12. The bigger hit was when Omoruyi got elbowed by Dickinson and sent to the bench for a second time in the half just a few minutes later, which allowed Michigan to once again close that gap.
Correct. We likely would have been in excellent shape if we made free throws and cliff doesn’t go out then.
 

Captain Hogleg

All-Conference
Jan 26, 2006
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Please lend Pike your crystal ball then. Would it have gotten to 30-3 if he didn’t sub there? And what if they simply needed rest ? They were obviously playing very good D up to that point.
You ride the momentum. As I stated; you don’t know how long the run lasts but you leave in the catalysts to that run until it dries up. What is so hard to understand? These are young men in peak condition and it was the first 5 minutes of the game. Clearly what happened last night was evidence that you don’t remove the key players when they are hot; you just caused the change of events on the court that the opposing coach could only wish would happen. It was a self inflicted wound. Bad coaching by Pike in that moment
 
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Captain Hogleg

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Jan 26, 2006
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The fact that momentum is mostly (MOSTLY, NOT ENTIRELY) an illusion.
Its not an illusion; its an emotion. And emotion is very real. Same principal applies in the stock market. RIde the emotion of the market -its not always rational, but its real.
 

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
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Its not an illusion; its an emotion. And emotion is very real. Same principal applies in the stock market. RIde the emotion of the market -its not always rational, but its real.
The emotion is real but the performance effect is mostly an illusion. Especially for like small intra-game runs. Longer slumps/streaks will have more of an effect but still way less than most people think.

LOL at you being able to predict the stock market. Kind of proving my point.
 
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dconifer0

All-Conference
Oct 4, 2004
4,236
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I feel like college basketball subbing is going the way baseball pitching went in the eighties; somebody decided that it was best to take a Cy Young award winner out of the game in the fifth inning at the first hiccup, and replace him with stream of mediocre bullpen guys. And everybody went along with it.

College basketball players don't need a rest after playing for five minutes, in my opinion. Look at old box scores -- there was a time when starters played 36-40 minutes a game. I think they could at least do 30 nowadays.

Maybe my analogy to pitching is assinine; I realize that I am just a stupid message board guy...
 

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
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I feel like college basketball subbing is going the way baseball pitching went in the eighties: somebody decided that it was best to take a Cy Young award winner out of the game in the fifth inning at the first hiccup, and replace him with stream of mediocre bullpen guys. And everybody went along with it.

College basketball players don't need a rest after playing for five minutes, in my opinion. Look at old box scores -- there was a time not that long ago when starters played 36-40 minutes a game. I think they could at least do 30 nowadays.

Maybe my analogy to pitching is assinine; I realize that I am just a stupid message board guy...
But pitching has gone even more that way, hasn't it? And virtually everything.. people used to way underestimate fatigue effects.
 

dconifer0

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Oct 4, 2004
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But pitching has gone even more that way, hasn't it? And virtually everything.. people used to way underestimate fatigue effects.
My understanding, all anecdotal, was that it was swinging back towards the old model in pitching. Maybe I'm wrong.

And definitely, we are learning more and more about health and the human body. Some of the thing my coaches told me as a kid were ridiculous ("eat a candy bar before the game for energy." "Only wimps need water during practice."). Even back then I was skeptical. But maybe that is also a pendulum that has swung too far.

When I look back at my wrestling career, it was as if I spent all week doing everything I could to make sure I wasn't at my best at competition time. We all did. So I definitely agree with you that we are learning more about how to get the most out of our bodies athletically. I just wonder if sometimes the remedies are ill-timed and/or too extreme.
 

anon1753890747

All-Conference
Sep 29, 2006
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Caleb did not play well, he was a net negative last night, may have to do with his injury
I can’t remember a fifth year senior play as poorly relative to his 3rd and 4th seasons
 

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
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Woolfolk is also a major liability and not ready yet. He had a foul within 5 seconds of stepping on the court.

A foul caused by Dickinson initiating contact, and the ref blew the whistle on Wolf's reaction. I didn't mind that foul, because he was standing his ground.
 

Captain Hogleg

All-Conference
Jan 26, 2006
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The emotion is real but the performance effect is mostly an illusion. Especially for like small intra-game runs. Longer slumps/streaks will have more of an effect but still way less than most people think.

LOL at you being able to predict the stock market. Kind of proving my point.
Where do you think I am predicting? You're creating a self validating argument that has not even been offered to you by anyone but yourself.
 

Rokodesh

Heisman
Aug 30, 2007
15,488
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So what happens if starters are left in game and Michigan claws back to 15-11 then what do all the Monday Morning QBs do?

There is NEVER a good time with this team to use the bench, but it HAS to be done.
Michigan has to rest its starters too. Why would you take ours out early while their guys have plenty left in the tank?. The onus is on them to catch up, not on us to make it fair for them. Sit Cliff when Hunter sits. Pike screwed up big time.
 
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fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
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Where do you think I am predicting? You're creating a self validating argument that has not even been offered to you by anyone but yourself.
Your advice is to "ride the emotion of the market". This implies you think you have a strategy (riding the emotion) that beats the market. Otherwise, pretty dumb advice?
 

Captain Hogleg

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Woolfolk is also a major liability and not ready yet. He had a foul within 5 seconds of stepping on the court.
That foul was OK. It was exactly what he needed to do to Dickinson to try and wear him down. Woolf is expendable; so use his fouls. Reiber was getting destroyed and offering zero resistance. I wish Woolf used all 5 fouls on Dickinson.
 
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Captain Hogleg

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Your advice is to "ride the emotion of the market". This implies you think you have a strategy (riding the emotion) that beats the market. Otherwise, pretty dumb advice?
Did I say that? No one always beats the market. You do capitalize on moments however. You seem like you have an inability to think beyond an algorithmic approach.
 
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S_Janowski

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May 24, 2009
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That foul was OK. It was exactly what he needed to do to Dickinson to try and wear him down. Woolf is expendable; so use his fouls. Reiber was getting destroyed and offering zero resistance. I wish Woolf used all 5 fouls on Dickinson.

While it wasn’t a terrible foul..it also wasn’t needed. If you’re gonna foul within 5 seconds of stepping on the court it should be a hard/tough foul.

Reiber is a liability for sure but Woolfolk hasn’t really shown me anything in conference play for me to say he should always be out there ahead of Dean.
 
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Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
14,963
10,525
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That foul was OK. It was exactly what he needed to do to Dickinson to try and wear him down. Woolf is expendable; so use his fouls. Reiber was getting destroyed and offering zero resistance. I wish Woolf used all 5 fouls on Dickinson.
And it got us a turnover after the next inbounds. It was exactly what was needed getting Hunter out of the comfort zone he was in.
 

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
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McConnell was subbed for Palmquist... but that wasn't to get Palmquist rest.

Honestly, though, it wasn't too terrible in a vacuum. We went down 7-0 during a short stretch, but Mulcahy/Omoruyi came back in and we pushed the lead back up to 19-12. The bigger hit was when Omoruyi got elbowed by Dickinson and sent to the bench for a second time in the half just a few minutes later, which allowed Michigan to once again close that gap.

Yes - it was. There was no issue at all with the McConnell subbing for Oskar. He came in and hit a 3. Caleb had 2 bad passes in the game and did not look 100% but the Shelby crew would be foolish to open their traps about Caleb playing. Even limited by injury he was clearly one of our best 5 options to be on the court.


We were in great shape until we pulled Paul and Cliff and Dickerson quickly scored 2 easy buckets because we had no post presence. It wasn’t the MOV at this point that was the issue. Michigan couldn’t get their offense going to start the game. Cliff was completely shutting down their inside game. By subbing at that point we gifted them the confidence to get things going with that substitution pattern. Putting Dean in was like letting Dickerson shoot technicals from right under the basket.

Now you could argue that it’s possible Michigan eventually would’ve gotten going anyway and it would be impossible to prove you wrong for sure - but we’ve now blown leads in multiple games without Mag at the exact same point in games with this sub pattern. At least Pike could try subbing only one core guy out at a time to see what happens.
 

Perricone7

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Jan 26, 2015
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I didn’t love the early substitution, but is that the issue or is the fact that we still can’t rely on reiber to give 3 minutes of neutral play the real issue?
 

snowboarder

All-Conference
Aug 3, 2004
991
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I turned to my friend at that point and said the same thing about taking Cliff out.
Also a basketball guy, my friend agreed that Cliff should come out when Dickenson was out.
Is there anyone that would think that Reiber could defend against Dickenson?
My friend was involved with the Seton Hall program under PJ.
He couldn't believe that we ran nothing special for Spenser.
He is the only guy on the team that any of us really want to shoot and we do little to help him get open.
All that being said, it wasn't about coaching last night.
UM simply had more talent.
McDaniel was the best point guard in the game.
Bufkin is very athletic and difficult to guard.
Dickinson was a mismatch for anyone not named Cliff.
As someone said before, Pike went all in a style of play this year and it would have worked.
This team would have been incredibly successful if he hadn't lost what had arguably become its most important guy.
This team could not afford to lose Cliff, Mag, PM or Cam at any point in the year and be even close to the same team.
Pike has been very successful with under the radar types but some times the radar is accurate.
There are a number of guys on the team with the skills and the measurables to succeed but somehow something is missing from their games,
Geo and RHJ were complete offensive players.
They could get to the rim, shoot from distance and create their own shots.
I don't think we even have one of those types at this point
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
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Yes - it was. There was no issue at all with the McConnell subbing for Oskar. He came in and hit a 3. Caleb had 2 bad passes in the game and did not look 100% but the Shelby crew would be foolish to open their traps about Caleb playing. Even limited by injury he was clearly one of our best 5 options to be on the court.


We were in great shape until we pulled Paul and Cliff and Dickerson quickly scored 2 easy buckets because we had no post presence. It wasn’t the MOV at this point that was the issue. Michigan couldn’t get their offense going to start the game. Cliff was completely shutting down their inside game. By subbing at that point we gifted them the confidence to get things going with that substitution pattern. Putting Dean in was like letting Dickerson shoot technicals from right under the basket.

Now you could argue that it’s possible Michigan eventually would’ve gotten going anyway and it would be impossible to prove you wrong for sure - but we’ve now blown leads in multiple games without Mag at the exact same point in games with this sub pattern. At least Pike could try subbing only one core guy out at a time to see what happens.

But you can't play Omoruyi 40 minutes, either. He'd played the first 8 minutes and sat for 2 before coming back in... and had been waiting at the scorer's table for a bit until Pike called a time out to get him back in the game.

To me it was bigger that both Omoruyi AND Mulcahy came out at the same time. Without either of them on the court, our offense just doesn't go. You're not going to hold Michigan to 3 points for an entire game, so they were going to start scoring points - but we needed to be able to answer when they do, and we were hamstrung a bit during that stretch.

Even so, we bounced back and got the lead back to 7.... before Omoruyi got popped in the face and had to leave the floor and be looked at by trainers.
 

rudad02

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Nov 7, 2010
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Pike has got to know better
Players don’t get tired or winded on a 10-run…you’re running on air and pure adrenaline…feeling no pain
There was ZERO reason to substitute while you’ve got all the momentum in a huge game…ride it out.
Absolutely.
 

zappaa

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
73,435
89,611
103
The emotion is real but the performance effect is mostly an illusion. Especially for like small intra-game runs. Longer slumps/streaks will have more of an effect but still way less than most people think.

LOL at you being able to predict the stock market. Kind of proving my point.
Relating it to being a player.
Don’t make the opposing team and coaches happy by removing players they’re all happy to see taken out of the game at that point
 
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RUBlackout

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Woolfolk is also a major liability and not ready yet. He had a foul within 5 seconds of stepping on the court.
That was a different type of foul..he was trying to body Dickinson and legit blocked him twice as if he was a Tight End blocking a DL..clearly a foul but at the same time holding his ground trying to send a message
 
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RUBlackout

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Relating it to being a player.
Don’t make the opposing team and coaches happy by removing players they’re all happy to see taken out of the game at that point
Yeah these are kids and can def play longer than usual though it is grueling on the body out there. That said…we give cliff a rest and the man has to come out inadvertently later when he gets hit in the face…sucks
 

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
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But you can't play Omoruyi 40 minutes, either. He'd played the first 8 minutes and sat for 2 before coming back in... and had been waiting at the scorer's table for a bit until Pike called a time out to get him back in the game.

To me it was bigger that both Omoruyi AND Mulcahy came out at the same time. Without either of them on the court, our offense just doesn't go. You're not going to hold Michigan to 3 points for an entire game, so they were going to start scoring points - but we needed to be able to answer when they do, and we were hamstrung a bit during that stretch.

Even so, we bounced back and got the lead back to 7.... before Omoruyi got popped in the face and had to leave the floor and be looked at by trainers.
Yes exactly. We had just folded Caleb into the mix. That was fine. Pike could’ve done one more substitution at that point. Instead he took out everyone all at once except Caleb and Hyatt. Caleb hadn’t practiced in 5 days. Not the time to have him out there running things. It would’ve been fine to only send Simpson in for Paul for a few minutes. Let Cam, Simpson and Caleb navigate the offense with Cliff on the court in the middle. Instead we relied on just Simpson and Caleb with Hyatt and 2 bench forwards. It was really bad timing for that line up in my opinion.
 
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Shelby65

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Apr 1, 2008
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The fact that momentum is mostly (MOSTLY, NOT ENTIRELY) an illusion.b uh

You ride the momentum. As I stated; you don’t know how long the run lasts but you leave in the catalysts to that run until it dries up. What is so hard to understand? These are young men in peak condition and it was the first 5 minutes of the game. Clearly what happened last night was evidence that you don’t remove the key players when they are hot; you just caused the change of events on the court that the opposing coach could only wish would happen. It was a self inflicted wound. Bad coaching by Pike in that moment
hot? was Cliff hot ? or did he miss the 4 consecutive missed FTs before coming out in that stretch ?
 

Shelby65

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I turned to my friend at that point and said the same thing about taking Cliff out.
Also a basketball guy, my friend agreed that Cliff should come out when Dickenson was out.
Is there anyone that would think that Reiber could defend against Dickenson?
My friend was involved with the Seton Hall program under PJ.
He couldn't believe that we ran nothing special for Spenser.
He is the only guy on the team that any of us really want to shoot and we do little to help him get open.
All that being said, it wasn't about coaching last night.
UM simply had more talent.
McDaniel was the best point guard in the game.
Bufkin is very athletic and difficult to guard.
Dickinson was a mismatch for anyone not named Cliff.
As someone said before, Pike went all in a style of play this year and it would have worked.
This team would have been incredibly successful if he hadn't lost what had arguably become its most important guy.
This team could not afford to lose Cliff, Mag, PM or Cam at any point in the year and be even close to the same team.
Pike has been very successful with under the radar types but some times the radar is accurate.
There are a number of guys on the team with the skills and the measurables to succeed but somehow something is missing from their games,
Geo and RHJ were complete offensive players.
They could get to the rim, shoot from distance and create their own shots.
I don't think we even have one of those types at this point
oh so Mag is now the most important guy ? smh
 

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
11,694
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hot? was Cliff hot ? or did he miss the 4 consecutive missed FTs before coming out in that stretch ?
He was rock solid on defense. Michigan had 3 points. It wasn’t like good shots were just rimming out. It all changed when Dean came in for him. 2 quick easy baskets for Dickerson got the Michigan offense going.

I get that we have to sit Cliff at some point but absent foul trouble I’d prefer we do it in the last few minutes of the half. Maybe around the 16 minute mark. Let Paul get his rest in that 11-12 minute mark where Pike likes to bring in subs. The press was a disaster the last time we tried it - but the last 4 minutes of a half where we are not in foul trouble is the time to sit Cliff and try it to close out a half. Slow down the offense and eat clock if we don’t get a transition basket.