The economy

[TigerGrowls]

Thank you President Trump!!!



U.S. real GDP for Q3 2025 was just revised up to +4.4% annualized, beating the initial 4.3% estimate.

That’s the strongest quarterly growth in two years, driven by solid consumer spending, exports, and investment.

The momentum is carrying into Q4, with the Atlanta Fed now tracking growth around ~5.4%.

The U.S. economy continues to show real resilience.

 

[TigerGrowls]

Chew on dem apples idgets.

 

[dpic73]

More destabilizing revenge bvllshit for this narcissistic sociopath

Trump sues Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase over debanking the suit calls 'political'

Chase Bank closed Trump's accounts on the heels of the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riot and the president exiting the White House later that same month.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Dadar]

Japanese bond situation is going to be very interesting.

The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark rate and issued higher inflation forecasts that leave scope for its next hike to come earlier than the expected timing of summer.

 

[kidmike41]

And yet your generation raised millennials (their children) to be whatever they wanted to be, to live the life they deserve to live that the boomers couldn't, that if they believed in themselves enough and worked hard enough they could achieve everything they wanted.

Your generation reveled in and created consumerism and sold it to us. Your generation told your children that everything we could ever want was at our finger tips, and then made it happen. You gave us "Friday night delivery pizza nights" and told us if we went to college we would be able to afford that and more. You told us if we got a degree and worked hard we would never worry about money.

None of those things happened.

Now you're mad that you created all this s h it and we think we should be able to achieve it, but we're too poor to do so. You gave us a vision and now are mad at us for wanting it to become reality, and its out of our grasp.

Millenials have come to grips that we were sold a lie. We know the false bill of goods you sold us. But unfortunately its so ingrained in american culture that now its antithetical to how we were raised/wired to reject those things. So we indulge, because you told us to expect it.

It will take the next few generations to rebound from the lies your generation told us.

I am a millennial and I don’t think we were sold a lie. I think a large portion of our generation did think college = prosperity. What they didn’t understand is ROI on that college degree. Don’t put yourself in a massive debt hole chasing some private school or masters degree. Don’t major in basket weaving and expect to make hundreds of thousands of dollars. We have created a underclass of white collar workers who think that if they show up and punch the clock they will get prosperity. No, that’s not how it works. I graduated from Clemson in 06 so things were good, but they quickly went to **** for the construction and real estate industry. I was making $20k a year at one point, but I survived to live and fight another day. I have meetings with architects who are in student loan debt to their eyeballs and are singing the blues about debt forgiveness. No way I am signing up for that. Architecture is a terrible ROI on degree cost, they should have known better. Where were their parents?

Also I am done with the boomers. Time to move on and sail into the sunset. Let us make the hard decisions that they refused to make. Balance the budget for one.

 

[kidmike41]

Stopping massive corporations from buying up single homes is a 99/1 position. We all agree.

However, every single upper middle class family I'm friends with (in our same town), doesn't live paycheck to paycheck, but also isn't able to have the equity/ability to afford multiple properties, even to rent out.

That's the point.

That’s crazy. They can’t save $15-20k to invest in a rental property? You can use your 401k for the equity.

you live in Spartanburg? I will get you setup. Let’s build some wealth!

 

[fatpiggy]

fatpiggy..the numbers are great, but to large portion of the American population they are meaningless. They only see that the amount of money they have at the beginning of the month doesn't last to the end of the month.

People that want to buy homes are priced out, cost is a new car, cost of car repairs are putting people out of the market.

Trump admin has a lot more work to do

Real wages are up under Trump. It’s a small amount and maybe not noticeable right away, but it’s trending in the right direction. It takes a minute to fix the Biden mess. Did you see Ken Griffin explain how big of an economic mess the last admin was?


So I agree there is more work to do, but the path we are on is at least sustainable, something that could not be said for the democratic run admin.

 

[scotchtiger]

Stopping massive corporations from buying up single homes is a 99/1 position. We all agree.

However, every single upper middle class family I'm friends with (in our same town), doesn't live paycheck to paycheck, but also isn't able to have the equity/ability to afford multiple properties, even to rent out.

That's the point.

Weird. I'm having a hard time thinking of someone in our social circle who couldn't afford a rental property if they really wanted one. And I'm not saying this is some exclusively affluent social circle. Most of my rentals were acquired for an average of <$100K per door. Harder to do now for sure, but that doesn't change the point of "mom and pops" owning rentals as many have owned them for quite some time.

Rentals make money btw, in case that isn't clear to you. It's not a luxury item to blow your savings on. Buy smart, small down payment, use leverage (mortgage) to your advantage and collect a check each month. Done right, the ROI is very high. Personally though, I'm tired of dealing with some of the headaches and am peace'ing out this year.

 

[FLaw47]

Weird. I'm having a hard time thinking of someone in our social circle who couldn't afford a rental property if they really wanted one. And I'm not saying this is some exclusively affluent social circle. Most of my rentals were acquired for an average of <$100K per door. Harder to do now for sure, but that doesn't change the point of "mom and pops" owning rentals as many have owned them for quite some time.

Rentals make money btw, in case that isn't clear to you. It's not a luxury item to blow your savings on. Buy smart, small down payment, use leverage (mortgage) to your advantage and collect a check each month. Done right, the ROI is very high. Personally though, I'm tired of dealing with some of the headaches and am peace'ing out this year.

This isn't really a slam on you but I think you'd be extremely well served to consider how representative your social circle is.

The percentage of people who could secure a loan (or would be well advised to) for a rental property, even for <100K, is not 70%.

And I'm being earnest when I talk about the social circle thing. I'm the "dumb" one in our group (my framing, not theirs) because I only have a bachelors. I'm friends with a lot of PhD's and MDs. It's easy to lose sight of what's normal when that's who you hang out with.

 

[kidmike41]

This isn't really a slam on you but I think you'd be extremely well served to consider how representative your social circle is.

The percentage of people who could secure a loan (or would be well advised to) for a rental property, even for <100K, is not 70%.

And I'm being earnest when I talk about the social circle thing. I'm the "dumb" one in our group (my framing, not theirs) because I only have a bachelors. I'm friends with a lot of PhD's and MDs. It's easy to lose sight of what's normal when that's who you hang out with.

You are the smart one in the group. Graduate degrees are not worth it. Maybe the right MD is, but otherwise go get to work!

 

[FLaw47]

You are the smart one in the group. Graduate degrees are not worth it. Maybe the right MD is, but otherwise go get to work!

Well the PhD's are psychologists and they're not able to do that job without one (I appreciate that you're being humorous though).

 

[PawPride]

you might well be right in your numbers. Have you ever watch YouTube videos about college grads talking about student loans or segments on dumbest financial decisions? Talk about depressing. The lack of financial knowledge among a large segment of our population is staggering.

I know this is anecdotal, so don't come after me with daggers out, but some segments about not being able to make ends meet, come with questions about how often do you buy Starbucks - couple of time a day: what mobile phone - upgrade every year: nails and hair done: what year car: how often do you go to a bar??

again anecdotal, but some people really don't understand where their money goes and how much they could save with just some minor (to me) lifestyle changes.

There was one young woman, college graduate, with student loans, co-signed by her grandmother, hasn't made payments, bank went to grandmother, young woman thinks it's unfair that bank would want grandmother to pay for her student loans.....duh

Oh yeah, absolutely agreed with a good bit of this - especially regarding the financial literacy of our common citizen. Our schools have done a horrible job teaching financial responsibility to kids (and don't get me wrong, the first line of defense for this should be your parents, but not everyone's parents are financially savvy.) We (the common citizen) definitely has a spending problem. I remember reading an article that said <50% of younger generations (gen z and below) cook meals at home vs ordering in takeout compared to >60% of older generations (millennials and above) that do their cooking at home. With as expensive as takeout is compared to cooking your own meals, I can understand why a lot of the younger generations are hurting financially.

However, there are many other affordability issues that help explain why younger generations are hurting so much compared to other generations (income to rent/mortgage ratio now vs what it's been historically is probably the #1 issue.)

 

[kidmike41]

Well the PhD's are psychologists and they're not able to do that job without one (I appreciate that you're being humorous though).

I am not really being humorous. I don't place much value on these advanced degrees. They cost way to much money for the ROI. The student loan industrial complex has devalued them. I am not a big fan of psychologists either. It is a pseudoscience at best.

 

[FLaw47]

Oh yeah, absolutely agreed with a good bit of this - especially regarding the financial literacy of our common citizen. Our schools have done a horrible job teaching financial responsibility to kids (and don't get me wrong, the first line of defense for this should be your parents, but not everyone's parents are financially savvy.) We (the common citizen) definitely has a spending problem. I remember reading an article that said <50% of younger generations (gen z and below) cook meals at home vs ordering in takeout compared to >60% of older generations (millennials and above) that do their cooking at home. With as expensive as takeout is compared to cooking your own meals, I can understand why a lot of the younger generations are hurting financially.

However, there are many other affordability issues that help explain why younger generations are hurting so much compared to other generations (income to rent/mortgage ratio now vs what it's been historically is probably the #1 issue.)

And probably apropos of nothing, it's much more enjoyable to cook (IMO) when you have house than when you're cooking in an apartment. Plus cooking for one has its own complications. I wonder what the cook at home rate for older generations was when they were the same age as Gen Z.

 

[FLaw47]

I am not really being humorous. I don't place much value on these advanced degrees. They cost way to much money for the ROI. The student loan industrial complex has devalued them. I am not a big fan of psychologists either. It is a pseudoscience at best.

Well, you're certainly free to be completely wrong on that. The number of veterans who can sleep again or have learned to live with their chronic pain and no opiates because of my wife's work makes me very proud of her.

 

[baltimorened]

Weird. I'm having a hard time thinking of someone in our social circle who couldn't afford a rental property if they really wanted one. And I'm not saying this is some exclusively affluent social circle. Most of my rentals were acquired for an average of <$100K per door. Harder to do now for sure, but that doesn't change the point of "mom and pops" owning rentals as many have owned them for quite some time.

Rentals make money btw, in case that isn't clear to you. It's not a luxury item to blow your savings on. Buy smart, small down payment, use leverage (mortgage) to your advantage and collect a check each month. Done right, the ROI is very high. Personally though, I'm tired of dealing with some of the headaches and am peace'ing out this year.

I made a lot of money on rentals.. my first was in Hawaii, couple on the gold coast of Chicago, and couple in northern VA. Never dealt with tenants as I was normally physically located away from the units so had management firms do the dirty work, cuts down on returns but immensely increases serenity. Sold out of everything in my 60s and put the money into other income producing vehicles like preferred stocks, municipal bonds and some structured investments.

If I were younger I'd definitely do it again. Anyone looking to increase net worth should really look into it.

 

[kidmike41]

Well, you're certainly free to be completely wrong on that. The number of veterans who can sleep again or have learned to live with their chronic pain and no opiates because of my wife's work makes me very proud of her.

The mind is very powerful no doubt. It sounds like she is doing good work. We also have alot of people heavily medicated in this country because of psychologists that I consider to be a huge issue.

 

[baltimorened]

This isn't really a slam on you but I think you'd be extremely well served to consider how representative your social circle is.

The percentage of people who could secure a loan (or would be well advised to) for a rental property, even for <100K, is not 70%.

And I'm being earnest when I talk about the social circle thing. I'm the "dumb" one in our group (my framing, not theirs) because I only have a bachelors. I'm friends with a lot of PhD's and MDs. It's easy to lose sight of what's normal when that's who you hang out with.

Flaw, don't sell yourself short. There are lots of creative financing techniques to get you into rental owner ship. I know this is somewhat unbelieveable, but I once got into a 3BR, 2bath townhome appraised at $250k , for a grand total of $1350, plus closing costs. Now, being upfront, probably couldn't do that today, but there are ways. And by the way, I did that on an Army LTC pay, not a corporate executives.

Oh yeah, absolutely agreed with a good bit of this - especially regarding the financial literacy of our common citizen. Our schools have done a horrible job teaching financial responsibility to kids (and don't get me wrong, the first line of defense for this should be your parents, but not everyone's parents are financially savvy.) We (the common citizen) definitely has a spending problem. I remember reading an article that said <50% of younger generations (gen z and below) cook meals at home vs ordering in takeout compared to >60% of older generations (millennials and above) that do their cooking at home. With as expensive as takeout is compared to cooking your own meals, I can understand why a lot of the younger generations are hurting financially.

However, there are many other affordability issues that help explain why younger generations are hurting so much compared to other generations (income to rent/mortgage ratio now vs what it's been historically is probably the #1 issue.)

I'll go out on the limb, ready to deflect spears, but without becoming enablers, parents have to help. The greatness means to build wealth has been homeownership. If you're going to leave money, "loan" it to them when they need it/
If you've never heard of the applicable federal rate, look it up. It's a way to keep the next generation honest without having them pay banks for the money. They can pay it to you, simple interest, lower rates, and if you can afford it gift it back to them...all legal. Mid term rate (up to 10 years) is 4% today. (changes monthly or daily don't know which)

 

[kidmike41]

And probably apropos of nothing, it's much more enjoyable to cook (IMO) when you have house than when you're cooking in an apartment. Plus cooking for one has its own complications. I wonder what the cook at home rate for older generations was when they were the same age as Gen Z.

I would think it was much higher. Restaurants were not as plentiful or as good back in the dark ages.

 

[baltimorened]

And probably apropos of nothing, it's much more enjoyable to cook (IMO) when you have house than when you're cooking in an apartment. Plus cooking for one has its own complications. I wonder what the cook at home rate for older generations was when they were the same age as Gen Z.

my experience 98%

 

[FLaw47]

The mind is very powerful no doubt. It sounds like she is doing good work. We also have alot of people heavily medicated in this country because of psychologists that I consider to be a huge issue.

Psychologists can't prescribe medications except in Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Utah. My wife would be the first to tell you that there are some forms of therapy out there that aren't really designed to solve a problem and are basically just an expensive way to have someone to talk to. But I won't stand by when someone makes a sweeping statement that I know to be wrong.

 

[baltimorened]

I would think it was much higher. Restaurants were not as plentiful or as good back in the dark ages.

it wasn't;t so dark back then..mcdonald's burger was $.15. That's how far back I go.

Oh there were plenty of restaurants back then...

 

[kidmike41]

Psychologists can't prescribe medications except in Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Utah. My wife would be the first to tell you that there are some forms of therapy out there that aren't really designed to solve a problem and are basically just an expensive way to have someone to talk to. But I won't stand by when someone makes a sweeping statement that I know to be wrong.

The sweeping statement that it is a pseudoscience?

 

[kidmike41]

it wasn't;t so dark back then..mcdonald's burger was $.15. That's how far back I go.

Oh there were plenty of restaurants back then...

Like Howard Johnson’s and the orange sherbet! I watched MadMen, I know all about it.

 

[FLaw47]

The sweeping statement that it is a pseudoscience?

Correct. I think there was a time where that was mostly true (as is this case with medicine, honestly) but it's been a minute. There are a lot of people out there who use evidence based treatments.

 

[FLaw47]

Like Howard Johnson’s and the orange sherbet! I watched MadMen, I know all about it.

I watched that episode this week.

 

[baltimorened]

Like Howard Johnson’s and the orange sherbet! I watched MadMen, I know all about it.

well, never heard of the orange sherbet...now I feel I was left out.

I used to take my wife, then my girl friend, to a little Italian restaurant. We could have dinner for about $10, including tax and tips. I've been feeding that woman for about 65 years....

 

[FLaw47]

well, never heard of the orange sherbet...now I feel I was left out.

I used to take my wife, then my girl friend, to a little Italian restaurant. We could have dinner for about $10, including tax and tips. I've been feeding that woman for about 65 years....

Which one have you been feeding for 65 years, the wife or the girlfriend?

 

[baltimorened]

Correct. I think there was a time where that was mostly true (as is this case with medicine, honestly) but it's been a minute. There are a lot of people out there who use evidence based treatments.

you know, the mind is a crazy thing. I'm a Vietnam vet, as is my older brother.
There are lots of Vietnam vets who came back with some severe mental issues and I would imagine that speaking with someone. or even some medications might help.

But, back to minds being crazy, both my brother and I were in combat arms - he in infantry and me as an attack helicopter pilot - an neither of us had any issues. But, I know some who were in non combat positions (about 80% of the vets believe it or not) who did have some problems.

If your wife is working with vets with problems, thank her for me.

 

[FLaw47]

you know, the mind is a crazy thing. I'm a Vietnam vet, as is my older brother.
There are lots of Vietnam vets who came back with some severe mental issues and I would imagine that speaking with someone. or even some medications might help.

But, back to minds being crazy, both my brother and I were in combat arms - he in infantry and me as an attack helicopter pilot - an neither of us had any issues. But, I know some who were in non combat positions (about 80% of the vets believe it or not) who did have some problems.

If your wife is working with vets with problems, thank her for me.

I'll do that, thanks!

My best friend's dad flew CH-46s in Vietnam. I think he had some struggles but I don't think anything major.

There are good treatments for PTSD but it's very taxing on both the patient and the therapist. Basically just having to replay the trauma again and again.

 

[scotchtiger]

This isn't really a slam on you but I think you'd be extremely well served to consider how representative your social circle is.

The percentage of people who could secure a loan (or would be well advised to) for a rental property, even for <100K, is not 70%.

And I'm being earnest when I talk about the social circle thing. I'm the "dumb" one in our group (my framing, not theirs) because I only have a bachelors. I'm friends with a lot of PhD's and MDs. It's easy to lose sight of what's normal when that's who you hang out with.

I get that my social group isn't indicative of the broader population. But it's also a very large network of folks, so it isn't some small sample size. And then you add in all of the people that work for me or work with me.

The original post I responded to said Bessent was out of touch with his comments on "mom and pop" real estate investors. I feel like I've thoroughly explained why that isn't the case, which was my point. It's relevant positioning on important - and likely popular - policy.

 

[baltimorened]

Which one have you been feeding for 65 years, the wife or the girlfriend?

with a wife, who can afford a girlfriend?

edit: like all couples, every once is a while we have a fight. After one really bad one, I decided to go for a walk - calm down and de escalate. When I got home, I found her sitting at the coffee table, with a yellow pad, two columns - his/mine. She was already dividing assets....go figure

I'm much more careful is our disagreements

 

[FLaw47]

I get that my social group isn't indicative of the broader population. But it's also a very large network of folks, so it isn't some small sample size. And then you add in all of the people that work for me or work with me.

The original post I responded to said Bessent was out of touch with his comments on "mom and pop" real estate investors. I feel like I've thoroughly explained why that isn't the case, which was my point. It's relevant positioning on important - and likely popular - policy.

I agree it doesn't materially affect your point, I just think it's a worthwhile thing to keep in mind. My friend group is pretty well off and even among that group I only know a couple who'd feel like they could afford to buy rental properties (though some of that is clearly driven by a lack of interest). I personally wouldn't advise anyone without a significant amount of disposable income to use rental properties as an investment (but I also don't want to be a landlord, so I have a bias).

 

[tigres88]

with a wife, who can afford a girlfriend?

edit: like all couples, every once is a while we have a fight. After one really bad one, I decided to go for a walk - calm down and de escalate. When I got home, I found her sitting at the coffee table, with a yellow pad, two columns - his/mine. She was already dividing assets....go figure

I'm much more careful is our disagreements

damn your wife is a bad@ss lol. This is a power move

 

[baltimorened]

damn your wife is a bad@ss lol. This is a power move

military wife...

 

[Dadar]

Buckle up going into Asia markets tonight

Huge drop in USD/JPY currently. It is down at the moment 1.65%

Just to add, Bitcoin is down 3%

 

[Dadar]

The USD is getting hammered. Everything priced in USD is affected. The dollar index, DXY is testing a trend line up from 2008. Easy to see on a monthly chart. It is currslightly under the TL on a 5 min chart from the monthly TL drawn last year.

The Australian dollar is currently leading the main currencies up primarily due to the countries commodity resources

Falling dollar is good for stocks in general unless a fundamental crisis hits.
Just rambling fwiw

Lowering interest rates would increase USD selling. Japan is a big flash point currently

 

[ANEW]

In hindsight, how many here were able to experience the simplicity and calm of the analog world?

Lets not forget the truly awful things in that world, like having to get up and walk over to the TV to change the channel and not having a microwave to reheat leftovers.

 

[Dadar]

Lets not forget the truly awful things in that world, like having to get up and walk over to the TV to change the channel and not having a microwave to reheat leftovers.

Can you relate at all?

 

[tboonpickens]