It is an absolute **** show. Treating the US fiscal system and treasury like the Carlyle Group canabilizing an acquisition
The economy
- Thread starter Rastafarian
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It is an absolute **** show. Treating the US fiscal system and treasury like the Carlyle Group canabilizing an acquisition
that's why we had kids..made them get up to change channels. Lots of you aren't old enough to remember picking up the rabbit ears, moving them around to pick up the signals....ah, those were the days, gas was $. 29.9, 3 lbs ground beef for $1.00
A relentless rally means that at current prices, global central banks have more investments in the precious metal than in US Treasuries. From China to India to Poland, governments that have been purchasing gold since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are happily sitting on mountains of capital gains.
De-Facto Gold Standard
Gold has overtaken Treasuries in global central banks' FX reserves
A Perpetual Headache
US is relying on short-term borrowings, recession or not
Carlyle Group economics
But the problem with having too much short-term debt is that it makes borrowing costs more variable. This is why historically, the Treasury reduced the share of T-bills during economic expansions — to leave room for big increases during downturns. That flexibility is now gone. As of the end of 2025, bills represented about 22% of all outstanding marketable Treasury debt, well above the levels seen in the 2010s.
I remember our nice console black and white TV with the dials that i constantly got yelled at for turning too fast, and the antenna on the roof that was recently made obsolete by us getting cable.
I can confirm that at least in my case, changing the channels on the tv was in fact, the reason my parents had me. I also remember being told that it was for washing the dishes. And cutting the grass. And raking the leaves and shoveling the driveway in the winter. And i also think it was for bringing the clean laundry from the basement to the 2nd floor
Edit: And how could i forget... initially dragging and then carrying the trash cans without wheels down our long driveway to the street. yeah that too.
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Life was very basic with minimal flux outside of one's daily life. Today we are bombarded with fast ever changing choices.
I had never even heard of fire ants until 1971. Kids could run around bare footed with the biggest problem being stepping in dog poop.
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We were on the cutting edge of news at my house. We got the local morning AND the competing local evening paper. lol. And the opinion page articles had more local and regional stuff than national. Most stuff happening more than a state or two away was not even news. Lots of noise today, you sure have that right. Even worse, i think is the ability to single track and only see stuff / opinons that conforms with what you think exactly.
Hate fire ants.. I learned about them the hard way when i moved to Texas and decided i was going too walk around barefoot in the yard of the rental house that i just moved into. Didn't know what those little bastards were called because how in the hell would I know that? No google searching. Had to go to the hardware store describe them and the damn welts that they left on me and ask for what killed them.
Speaking of insects... where in the hell did all the lightning bugs go?
When I got home from school l rolled about 130 copies of the afternoon local paper, put in basket on front of bike and delivered. Rainy days were not fun. Hated having to collect on Saturdays for a good many customers that did not pre pay monthly Seems kike it was 35 cents for 6 days a week, Monday through Saturday,
Good synopsis of energy markets for 2026 from CME group
I remember the snow storm of about 1957 in Baltimore, snow up to your (my) waist. We would get the Sunday inserts delivered to our house on Saturday....anyway because of the storm, they couln't get the main bodies of the Sunday papers out. So my mother says "people would at least like their inserts" with the funnies and all the home and garden stuff...so off I go, can
hardly move in the snow out delivering the inserts.
People were different back then. These days can't get the papers - on line no less - out before 6am, and even with that can't get yesterday's scores in
Lol, we were like the Post Office then, rain, snow, hail or sleet, schedules had to be met.
everything is great if you're upper middle class or better.
The administration better learn from the Biden one. Presenting a booming economy by touting the macro numbers of GDP, wage increases, are meaningless to the person who has no idea what GDP is, or who hasn't seen any of the $2500 increase in wages, but who is having trouble putting food on the table for his family.
Everything is great for most, if not all of us on this board, but not for a significant segment of the country...
Ned....the price of gas is way down.
Average cost of housing has been going down.
Average income up $2500 dollars.
Inflation flat.
No taxes on OT.
No taxes on tips.
No taxes on SS.
This is all in one year with a republican congress thats not going out of its way to help him. This is in addition to all the other great stuff he is doing.
Now lets just say he is not doing enough to make everyone very happy. Are they stupid enough to think the democrats will do anything but make it much worse?
I understand everything you posted. But remember back to 2020. Biden then Harris, were on the campaign trail telling everyone how great the economy was....voters, not all, but many, didn't feel it and believed they were being lied to.
Trump is falling into the same trap, IMO. Yea, things are better...but not for everybody, and trying to tell everybody that things are great is exactly what Biden/Harris did. Remember, this election in 2026 is for Senate/US House. It only takes a switch of a few seats to flip the house or Senate. And if that happens you can expect a divided government for Trump's final 2 years..
Now, in my situation....no tax on tips, OT or SS don't apply...inflation is not further down than during the election last year, and, I'm retired, SS has not gone up by $2500.....
And , I know people who can't find jobs, can't afford rent or down payment for a house, parents who can't afford retirement etc...
I certainly don't speak for everyone, heck, I don't even speak for most on this board, But, just my opinion, telling everyone how great they have it...may not be the way to go....
I see what you are saying. I am calling it now that the MAGA army will march on Election day for President Trump. There are still more smart people in this nation imo and they will show up.
well, I'd wager (figuratively) that about 50% of nation will turn out for Republican candidates, and about 50% will turn out for democrats.
How's that for being definitive?
Now if we could only overcome ~3% inflation and a 10%+ devaluation of the dollar. GDP (in nominal dollars) will have to exceed 14% to keep the US from becoming Mexico. TrumPesos don’t buy as much in the world as good old American dollars did.
There is no proof that the dollar is decreasing catastrophically. The dollar is pegged to the price of oil and Trump is bringing that price down. If the dollar drops a lot then inflation will explode. Let's see what happens.
I'd agree. But where the everyday consumer recognizes a difference is in inflation.
Getting inflation back down to 2% is going to do wonders for peoples perception of the economy. When inflation hits 8% like it did under the democrats, people feel like they are drowning, they can't keep up.
Trump is doing an excellent job crushing inflation, in spite of his tariffs. All the experts were wrong on tariffs IF, big IF, judgement day were today.
Fed meeting today where they will announce their decision on interest rates. Despite truflation showing inflation down well below 2%, the Fed is not expected to cut rates today. There is a 97% chance that rates remain where they are at 3.25-3.50 bps.
Market will be watching what the Fed says about rates in the future. Only a 15% chance of a rate cut at the next March meeting.
Personally, I think Powell will have to aknowledge that inflation is coming down and that a rate cut maybe on the table at the next meeting. We will see if the expectation for the March meeting move off of 15%.
Of course maybe rates stay firm until May when a new Chair takes over, one who will be appointed by Trump and will presumably want to get rates lower.
Overall the economy is doing very well right now and that includes he lowest part of the income scale.
Market will be watching what the Fed says about rates in the future. Only a 15% chance of a rate cut at the next March meeting.
Personally, I think Powell will have to aknowledge that inflation is coming down and that a rate cut maybe on the table at the next meeting. We will see if the expectation for the March meeting move off of 15%.
Of course maybe rates stay firm until May when a new Chair takes over, one who will be appointed by Trump and will presumably want to get rates lower.
Overall the economy is doing very well right now and that includes he lowest part of the income scale.
Great for Spartanburg County since it's a bit of a trainwreck, but man Data Centers are horrible for the locals - especially low income locals who can't easily absorb the increased power bill and water bill. The WWTP outside of Montezuma, GA had to shut down (pretty much go on skeleton crew for processing/treating) because a new data center down the street started overloading them with high metals water and it destroyed one of their treatment lagoons.
People are bailing on America. Dollar is tanking. And Trump seems to be ok with it.
the sad reality is the folks who own assets will be fine, but those who live paycheck to paycheck are going to get crushed.
Check the international currency indices. USD is DOWN 10%+ vs every other major currency. Facts are funny things, but not subject to partisanship blinders.
Inflation has leveled out just under 3% not crushed, and if the fed keeps cutting this is the bottom.
If only a couple presidents hadn't dumped money we didn't have on the economy..... If only a certain president didn't oversee the shutdown of the US/world economy creating easily foreseeable disruptions in the supply chain....
If only we weren't still dumping money on stimulus projects to stimulate and save an economy from COVID, 4 years after the event.....
If only politicians didn't pander and then lie....
If only citizens voted for competence rather than binary party labels.
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If the election was based on competence, the people certainly selected the right candidate. Kamala Harris was probably the most unqualified, incompetent candidate in US political history. That's not meant to inflame, that is just a straight up fact.
@baltimorened, this is where you're supposed to jump in and call out clear bias and expressing opinions as facts.
It's not partisan. I would argue that neither were/are competent. Harris based on statements, Trump based on resume. Both were selected based on binary party labels not competence.
Trump is proving his competence. 4%+ growth. Inflation on the decline. Crime down. Illegal immigration stopped. Essentially accomplishing what he campaigned on. Kamala didn't even know what she was campaigning on.
piggy, just to be clear, there have been a lot of unqualified, incompetent candidates for president in our history. Can you back up why Harris was the most incompetent