The economy
- Thread starter Rastafarian
- Start date
We are witnessing a Carlyle Group that of cannibalization of US assets into the personal pockets and interests of an administration with a fully compliant cabinet. SCOTUS included.
I have already hit what i look at for end of year balance. NQ futures especially requiring more patience than normal. No room for boredom trades.
Luckily got more into resources and energy stocks last year
Time of day during RTH and occasional globex trading through the global rotation has been dependable in avoiding the land mines. Have traded NQ both ways this month, but the short side has been like trading on the knifes edge
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Damn. No ****. How true. I was an only child but a block away was a big catholic family with a shoe full of kids. Picture of the pope , JFK with a black ribbon, and the oldest daughtger who was a nun on the wall. I spent a lot of time with them. i got beat by the older brothers and mom when i deserved it, nobody was shy about it then and I sure as hell wouldn't say **** to my parents for fear of getting another beating for embarrassing my family for doing something to make me deserve what i got. They had 3 paper routes initially and then when the oldest kids left the house it reduced to 2. I was a little more well off so I had a bike so many a day i rode up to my friends house and my bike was used to deliver the far route while us younger kids walked the near routes. I helped because the papers had to be delivered before we could play.
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The US trade deficit widened in November from the lowest level since 2009 as imports rebounded and exports fell, highlighting wide monthly swings in response to the Trump administration’s vacillating tariffs.
I personally understand (or think I do) Trump's obsession with tariffs. I don't think it's been thought all the way through, and the constant up and downs - seemingly on a whim - make him look indecisive and makes the US seem like a poor partner.
People are going to buy, for the most part, what they want to buy in spite of a little higher price caused by tariffs. That can't be good for the affordability issue
All of this is just a shell game imho. Granted, the future always seems to surprise me, especially in hindsight, bur the damage to the US standing as the anchor of global commerce with the US dollar reserve currency status losing trust has short and long term implications
The $38T debt with continual deficit spending by both parties was already a big risk point, but the tariffs and continual threats and daily instability on any threats or changes. It seems logical that any country outside of the US would be looking to adjust their central bank fx reserves, where a lot of the precious metal buying is coming from.
Just my 2 cents
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it will be interesting to see the effect, if any, on purchase/sale of US Treasuries
the sobering news, if that's the right word, is that in our system, nothing is forever. Trump might keep on his path, and do his damage, but he'll be gone in 3 years. The US economy will still be the "king of the world" and the new guy in 2029 can make a mea culpa, new sheriff in town overseas trip to make all right again.
Our allies love the US: Trump, not so much
Fiat currency. There was a really good paper from a presentation in the late 1940s by a Swiss banker on why fiat currencies always fail because the ruling party always weakens the currency for support from the masses through uncontrolled spending. I used to have a copy, but can not find it. It covered a lot of ground about wars and social effects.
Thought it was by Ferdinand Lips
Not the paper, but
Gold: Switzerland's true strategic compass - Mouvement Souveraineté Suisse
By Ludovic Malot - entrepreneur & economist There is a truth that no one in this country dares to tell: Switzerland was not built on its SMEs, but on the most solid currency in the West, backed by physical gold. As long as our franc was backed by a real asset, we were sovereign, respected and...
souverainete-suisse.ch
I think if we get another President who does the same disservice to us on the international stage we're permanently damaged. We won't be able to chalk it up to a one-off lunatic anymore (and it's already an enormous stretch because he was re-elected). I don't know what other choice our allies are supposed to make if we can't be trusted as partners anymore.
well, hard to argue with your point especially because I golf with some folks from Canada, UK and Europe. Small sample I know. But in conversations they seem to know, or at least tell me they know, is that the US is one of their greatest allies and they certainly do not want a "new world order". They know that right now our president is driving this train and they expect that like a ship in the storm, the storm will pass and the ship will sail on. (not my analogy, I got this from my UK friend)
I desperately hope they're right. It's why Trump tearing up the Iran Nuclear deal was so bad. EVEN IF the deal sucked (and I'm not aware that it actually did) it's incredibly damaging to the United State's credibility as a reliable partner on anything that has to extend past one administration.
The challenge is that economic supply chains are being remade without the US. China dna India are striking new trade deals since no one can rely on America any longer. We have also torn down institutions that have created millions of jobs and improved health via research.
The republicans have destroyed guardrails that have protected us from extreme executive power and if we ever overthrow this regime, it will take decades to undo the damage.
Yep, we know the rulers no longer trust us but now the general population doesn't either.
“He's not only yellow on the outside, he's also yellow inside,” said an arts teacher in Tehran.
“After he said the Iranian authorities had told him there won’t be any more killings and executions, everyone was just stunned,” said an Iranian interviewed Friday, after traveling out of the country. “Everyone was enraged; they just kept saying this bastard used us as cannon fodder. Iranians feel that they were played, that he fooled them, deceived them.”
“Trump is worse than Obama,” said a 40-year-old businessman in Tehran, who said he called friends and relatives to give them the good news after Trump’s “help is on its way” post. “He screwed up. He pulled the rug from under our feet.”
Iranian Protesters Say They Were Betrayed By Trump
Protesters were heartened when Trump promised help was ‘on its way.’ Now, they feel betrayed by his lack of action.
time.com
This is basically the Ferdinand Lips paper as I recall
goldbroker.com
Gold Wars: Military Conflicts, Gold and Currency Crises | GoldBroker.com
Gold has played a central and positive role in human history since the dawn of civilization. Speech given by Ferdinand Lips at the University of St. Gallen on 24 June 2004 as part of the International Finance & Security lecture series.
goldbroker.com
won't make much difference shortly as Iran is about to become the 53rd state..after Canada, Greenland
. There are "experts" who truly believe Trump is taking out the regime there. I don't know if these "experts" have inside information - a lot of the retired flag officers, government officials - do.he makes a good case. Makes me want to buy gold to store in the basementThis is basically the Ferdinand Lips paper as I recall
Gold Wars: Military Conflicts, Gold and Currency Crises | GoldBroker.com
Gold has played a central and positive role in human history since the dawn of civilization. Speech given by Ferdinand Lips at the University of St. Gallen on 24 June 2004 as part of the International Finance & Security lecture series.
I don't have any in the basement, but invested equal parts in SGOL and GLDM. Also NEM, GDX miners and GDXJ junior gold miners
SGOL
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF
the abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) is physically backed by gold; it holds allocated physical gold bullion bars in secure vaults in London and Zurich, directly mirroring the spot price of gold, unlike mining ETFs that invest in companies. The fund emphasizes transparency, with regular audits and daily bar lists posted, and uses responsible sourcing for its gold.
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I have a gold ETF...I keep trying to get my wife to buy more gold jewelry, but she tells me she has enough, doesn't want more...what a woman!
I'm old enough to remember gold was about $30/oz or so. I have a gold grown, military dentist had just invested in gold, so he put gold in everybody's mouth. I guess he felt he could make money one gold crown at a time
The Bretton Woods system (1944–1971) established a fixed exchange rate regime where foreign currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, which was directly convertible to gold at a fixed price of $35 per ounce. This system aimed to ensure global monetary stability, with the dollar acting as the primary reserve currency.
I still remember that Nixon address to the nation. All hell broke loose as you might imagine. Isn't it interesting how the "guns vs butter" debates during the Johnson years has evolved and been at least one of the catalysts that have gotten us to where we are today. Were you around then? 1970's?
The essential issue is that it puts the supply directly into the hands of politicians which is why we have this current mess on top of $38T of national debt. We are treating the global buyers of that debt like crap leading to a damn big chain reaction in the global structure. Then add the entire range of geopolitics.
This does not mean the US equity markets will drop as they are directly valued in a fiat currency with infinit supply subject to congress
The timing of things and how they play out in the near future are unknown, but the global base of trade is in chaos
Side note the inverse relationship of the currency to national debt. The falling currency directly lowers the fx value of the debt
This does not mean the US equity markets will drop as they are directly valued in a fiat currency with infinit supply subject to congress
The timing of things and how they play out in the near future are unknown, but the global base of trade is in chaos
Side note the inverse relationship of the currency to national debt. The falling currency directly lowers the fx value of the debt
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tigerland...remember it well I was there in '68
so you're about as old as I am, no wonder you seem so wise.
Mind boggling how many people voted for trump in 2016 because they thought he was a good business man
How are data centers taxed? What are the projections on that revenue? I feel like you are making **** up.
I believe trump looks at the world as a piece of real estate branded after himselfwon't make much difference shortly as Iran is about to become the 53rd state..after Canada, Greenland
US & GB screwed Iran for BP oil in 1953
Iran was considered a, largely, democratic, constitutional monarchy before the 1953 coup. Between 1941 and 1953, the country had a functioning parliament (the Majlis), a vibrant press, and active political parties. Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, elected by the Majlis, was overthrown in a U.S./British-backed coup.
Key Details of Pre-1953 Iran Democracy:
Yea Iran was an ally, someone who flew in one of my units had been an instructor pilot in Iran, before the Shah fell. After that the political direction of the country changed totally
If this current regime falls, I'm not certain that the shah's son is the right person to lead them...but he's certainly lobbying for the job