Reply to thread

Message

<blockquote data-quote="Volatility_rivals135605" data-source="post: 131841160" data-attributes="member: 1476288">My personal thoughts under a hypothetical &quot;Ceiling Scenario&quot;From a recruiting perspective:When you step back and look at all the blue chip type of programs that are far better positioned for talent acquisition than WVU, the absolute ceiling would be to maintain in the 16-24 range from year to year.&nbsp; I dont think a 4 year average in the 20-24 range can be obtained before the 8th or 9th year.&nbsp; That would ensure every class has a good talent base, to ensure depth is not a significant decline and to reduce yearly fluctuation in outcome.The 4th &amp; 5th year begin to show results on the field, which help improve recruiting.&nbsp; This is a layered process that gradually builds, so by the 8th+ year a quality staff could be in the 20-24 range(4 yr average).The results on the field will reflect the fluctuation &amp; gradual improvement of talent.DOWN Year = 8-10 Wins(including bowl games)UP Year = &gt;= 11 WinsUnder this optimal ceiling hypo, If we are able to hold onto that staff, we should experience the full peak between then 8thyr -12thyr.&nbsp; Where the first 4-5 years simply cement a foundation, and peak recruiting occur after the 5th year.&nbsp; That talent will offer peak performance around the 9th year.In this scenario, with the right staff, I think WVU could be in the national conversation for Conference Championship &amp; possible CFP every 3 years.&nbsp; Under DH, WVU was a 1 in 8 years program, which was+is not good enough.. There could be a grouping of &quot;optimal years&quot;, where all peak years are 3-4 years in sequence, or it could be spread out with 1-2 &quot;down year&quot; in between.&nbsp; The importance here is that our UP years are in the 10+ Wins, and a Down years are &gt; 7 wins.&nbsp; Perhaps in this scenario we may have a shot, if the stars align and every bounce goes our way every 6 years. If we ever get there it will be with a Senior heavy team with a 4 yr recruiting average in the 20-24 range, I dont think WVU is a program that can make back to back visits to the CFP, but we could get that magical class &amp; QB who do extremely well their Jun &amp; Sen years, but if I had to guess, I would think Conference Champs Jun yr with CFP showing their Sen yr.&nbsp; BY that time tho the CFP may allow 8+ teams, so there may come a time, under the perfect alignment where we could make two CFP showings in back to back years, esp if we remain in the new BIg12.Personally, I just want a staff that can have us in position to seriously compete for Conference Championships every 2-3 years, and raise the floor on our down years to still be a top 25 team.&nbsp; Which I do think is possible with the right staff. Whether Brown is that guy or not, its far to early to tell.&nbsp; Considering the deficit he started with, the way I see it he needed a 3-4 years just to get us back to 0(from a talent perspective).Something like:5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; OR&nbsp; &nbsp; 5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; OR&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 57&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 7&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 75&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 59&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 8&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 910&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 10&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 89&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 11&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1011&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 9&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 911&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1112&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 12&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1210&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 9&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 108&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 10&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 911&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 12&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 1012&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 10&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Volatility_rivals135605, post: 131841160, member: 1476288"] My personal thoughts under a hypothetical "Ceiling Scenario" From a recruiting perspective: When you step back and look at all the blue chip type of programs that are far better positioned for talent acquisition than WVU, the absolute ceiling would be to maintain in the 16-24 range from year to year. I dont think a 4 year average in the 20-24 range can be obtained before the 8th or 9th year. That would ensure every class has a good talent base, to ensure depth is not a significant decline and to reduce yearly fluctuation in outcome. The 4th & 5th year begin to show results on the field, which help improve recruiting. This is a layered process that gradually builds, so by the 8th+ year a quality staff could be in the 20-24 range(4 yr average). The results on the field will reflect the fluctuation & gradual improvement of talent. DOWN Year = 8-10 Wins(including bowl games) UP Year = >= 11 Wins Under this optimal ceiling hypo, If we are able to hold onto that staff, we should experience the full peak between then 8thyr -12thyr. Where the first 4-5 years simply cement a foundation, and peak recruiting occur after the 5th year. That talent will offer peak performance around the 9th year. In this scenario, with the right staff, I think WVU could be in the national conversation for Conference Championship & possible CFP every 3 years. Under DH, WVU was a 1 in 8 years program, which was+is not good enough.. There could be a grouping of "optimal years", where all peak years are 3-4 years in sequence, or it could be spread out with 1-2 "down year" in between. The importance here is that our UP years are in the 10+ Wins, and a Down years are > 7 wins. Perhaps in this scenario we may have a shot, if the stars align and every bounce goes our way every 6 years. If we ever get there it will be with a Senior heavy team with a 4 yr recruiting average in the 20-24 range, I dont think WVU is a program that can make back to back visits to the CFP, but we could get that magical class & QB who do extremely well their Jun & Sen years, but if I had to guess, I would think Conference Champs Jun yr with CFP showing their Sen yr. BY that time tho the CFP may allow 8+ teams, so there may come a time, under the perfect alignment where we could make two CFP showings in back to back years, esp if we remain in the new BIg12. Personally, I just want a staff that can have us in position to seriously compete for Conference Championships every 2-3 years, and raise the floor on our down years to still be a top 25 team. Which I do think is possible with the right staff. Whether Brown is that guy or not, its far to early to tell. Considering the deficit he started with, the way I see it he needed a 3-4 years just to get us back to 0(from a talent perspective). Something like: 5 OR 5 OR 5 7 7 7 5 5 5 9 8 9 10 10 8 9 11 10 11 9 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 10 9 10 8 10 9 11 12 10 12 10 11 [/QUOTE]

Name