RPI: 62
Overall Record: 19-8
Conference Record: 7-5
Conference Standing: T-1st West, T-5th Overall
Effective Conference Standing: 5th
Strength of Schedule: 116
vs. RPI Top 25: 0-2 (Tennessee remaining)
vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3 (Tennessee remaining)
vs. RPI Top 100: 5-4 (South Carolina, Tennessee remaining)
Good Wins (Top 50): 41 Old Dominion
Bad Losses (Sub-100): 153 Rider, 151 Western Kentucky, 104 Alabama, 127 Arkansas.
Dream Scenario:
4-0 to win season
Alabama to go 2-2 to end season (ending up in top 100)
Ole Miss to go 4-0 to end season (ending up in top 50)
This scenario would result in a RPI of approximately 47, give MSU a 4-3 record against top 50 teams, and eliminate a sub-100 loss.
Florida to end season 2-2, 4th place in SEC East. Quarterfinal game could be elimination game between UF and MSU. OR
MSU to win quarterfinal against Florida or Tennessee and semifinal against Vanderbilt.
The Pecking Order
Locks for NCAA Tournament
2 Kentucky (probable No 1 seed)
12 Vanderbilt (could play up to a solid 3 seed)
18 Tennessee (likely 4 seed)
On the Bubble - In
54 Florida (in an 11-12 type seed point, has a good chance to play up with UK, VU, UT remaining - need one to solidify bid)
On the Bubble- Out
62 Mississippi State (needs a 3-1 finish, but cannot afford another sub-100 loss to Alabama or Auburn. Needs quality win vs. Tennessee and road win against top 100 USC as well, so in effect, needs a 4-0 finish.)
On the Bubble - Miracle Finish Needed
63 Ole Miss (has schedule to finish 4-0, would likely need two SECT wins (Georgia, Vanderbilt) to get back into the hunt)
10 on the Bubble (four of these teams will make the tournament)
<span style="font-weight: bold;">38 San Diego State </span>(18-7, 9-4 in MWC, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, at BYU, CSU, at AFA remaining)
Pros: High RPI, good overall record
Cons: Weak conference
Note: win on the road at top 25 BYU would be huge, lose that one and at-large chances are probably slim
Right Now: OUT
<span style="font-weight: bold;">45 Connecticut</span> (16-11, 6-8 in Big East, 3-6 vs. Top 50, WVU, LOU, at ND, at USF remaining)
Pros: Good RPI, plays in the best conference, big name program, three solid wins
Cons: 11 losses, losing conference record
Note: Chance to better themselves with home game against WVU this week
Right Now: IN
<span style="font-weight: bold;">46 St. Mary's</span> (21-5, 9-3 in WCC, 2-3 vs. Top 50, PEP, LMU remaining)
Pros: Great overall record, two top 50 wins
Cons: Weak conference, RPI will fall just by remaining schedule
Note: Obviously in the talk for an at-large bid, but best chance is to beat Gonzaga in WCC tourney
Right Now: OUT
<span style="font-weight: bold;">51 Wichita State</span> (21-7, 11-5 in MWC, 2-3 vs. Top 50, at BRAD, SIU remaining)
Pros: Good overall record, two top 50 wins
Cons: MVC is weak this year, five conference losses
Note: Despite having the fourth best RPI among bubble teams, at-large spot is a long shot
Right Now: OUT
<br style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">53 Cincinnati </span>(15-10, 6-7 in Big East, 4-6 vs. Top 50, DEP, at WVU, NOVA, at GTOWN remaining)
Pros: Four top 50 wins
Cons: 10 losses, losing conference record
Note: Three of remaining four games are top 10 RPI teams. 2-1 against these three would put Bearcats in.
Right Now: OUT
<span style="font-weight: bold;">54 Florida </span>(19-8, win over MSU, 8-4 in SEC, 2-6 vs. Top 50, UT, at UGA, VU, at UK remaining)
Pros: Good overall record, good conference mark
Cons: Only two top 50 wins
Note: Three of remaining four games are top 20 RPI teams. 2-1 would make Gators solid 10 seed.
Right Now: IN
<span style="font-weight: bold;">56 Charlotte</span> (18-8, 8-4 in A-10, 3-7 vs. Top 50, SJU, at GWU, at URI, RICH remaining)
Pros: Good overall and conference mark, three quality wins
Cons: Weaker schedule
Note: Home game against Richmond to end season is must win
Right Now: OUT
<span style="font-weight: bold;">62 Mississippi State</span> (19-8 overall, 7-5 in SEC, 1-3 vs. Top 50, UA at USC, at AUB, UT remaining)
Pros: Good overall record
Cons: Lack of quality wins, three bad losses, only one more chance at quality win in regular season
Note: 3-1/4-0 is a must, probably need to make semifinals of SEC Tournament
Right Now: OUT
<span style="font-weight: bold;">64 South Florida </span>(16-10 overall, 6-8 in Big East, 2-3 vs, Top 50, at NOVA, PROV, at DePaul, UCONN remaining)
Pros: Solid record in toughest conference
Cons: 10 losses, losing conference record
Note: A win at Villanova would be huge for USF, other wise will have to win out to keep bid.
Right Now: IN
<span style="font-weight: bold;">71 Marquette</span> (16-9 overall, 7-6 in Big East, 3-7 vs. Top 50, at SJ, at SHU, LOU, ND remaining)
Pros: Solid record in Big East, three quality wins
Cons: Low RPI
Note: Doesn't have the firepower left in remaining schedule, but could finish would 10 Big East wins.
Right Now: IN
Overall Record: 19-8
Conference Record: 7-5
Conference Standing: T-1st West, T-5th Overall
Effective Conference Standing: 5th
Strength of Schedule: 116
vs. RPI Top 25: 0-2 (Tennessee remaining)
vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3 (Tennessee remaining)
vs. RPI Top 100: 5-4 (South Carolina, Tennessee remaining)
Good Wins (Top 50): 41 Old Dominion
Bad Losses (Sub-100): 153 Rider, 151 Western Kentucky, 104 Alabama, 127 Arkansas.
Dream Scenario:
4-0 to win season
Alabama to go 2-2 to end season (ending up in top 100)
Ole Miss to go 4-0 to end season (ending up in top 50)
This scenario would result in a RPI of approximately 47, give MSU a 4-3 record against top 50 teams, and eliminate a sub-100 loss.
Florida to end season 2-2, 4th place in SEC East. Quarterfinal game could be elimination game between UF and MSU. OR
MSU to win quarterfinal against Florida or Tennessee and semifinal against Vanderbilt.
The Pecking Order
Locks for NCAA Tournament
2 Kentucky (probable No 1 seed)
12 Vanderbilt (could play up to a solid 3 seed)
18 Tennessee (likely 4 seed)
On the Bubble - In
54 Florida (in an 11-12 type seed point, has a good chance to play up with UK, VU, UT remaining - need one to solidify bid)
On the Bubble- Out
62 Mississippi State (needs a 3-1 finish, but cannot afford another sub-100 loss to Alabama or Auburn. Needs quality win vs. Tennessee and road win against top 100 USC as well, so in effect, needs a 4-0 finish.)
On the Bubble - Miracle Finish Needed
63 Ole Miss (has schedule to finish 4-0, would likely need two SECT wins (Georgia, Vanderbilt) to get back into the hunt)
10 on the Bubble (four of these teams will make the tournament)
<span style="font-weight: bold;">38 San Diego State </span>(18-7, 9-4 in MWC, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, at BYU, CSU, at AFA remaining)
Pros: High RPI, good overall record
Cons: Weak conference
Note: win on the road at top 25 BYU would be huge, lose that one and at-large chances are probably slim
Right Now: OUT
<span style="font-weight: bold;">45 Connecticut</span> (16-11, 6-8 in Big East, 3-6 vs. Top 50, WVU, LOU, at ND, at USF remaining)
Pros: Good RPI, plays in the best conference, big name program, three solid wins
Cons: 11 losses, losing conference record
Note: Chance to better themselves with home game against WVU this week
Right Now: IN
<span style="font-weight: bold;">46 St. Mary's</span> (21-5, 9-3 in WCC, 2-3 vs. Top 50, PEP, LMU remaining)
Pros: Great overall record, two top 50 wins
Cons: Weak conference, RPI will fall just by remaining schedule
Note: Obviously in the talk for an at-large bid, but best chance is to beat Gonzaga in WCC tourney
Right Now: OUT
<span style="font-weight: bold;">51 Wichita State</span> (21-7, 11-5 in MWC, 2-3 vs. Top 50, at BRAD, SIU remaining)
Pros: Good overall record, two top 50 wins
Cons: MVC is weak this year, five conference losses
Note: Despite having the fourth best RPI among bubble teams, at-large spot is a long shot
Right Now: OUT
<br style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">53 Cincinnati </span>(15-10, 6-7 in Big East, 4-6 vs. Top 50, DEP, at WVU, NOVA, at GTOWN remaining)
Pros: Four top 50 wins
Cons: 10 losses, losing conference record
Note: Three of remaining four games are top 10 RPI teams. 2-1 against these three would put Bearcats in.
Right Now: OUT
<span style="font-weight: bold;">54 Florida </span>(19-8, win over MSU, 8-4 in SEC, 2-6 vs. Top 50, UT, at UGA, VU, at UK remaining)
Pros: Good overall record, good conference mark
Cons: Only two top 50 wins
Note: Three of remaining four games are top 20 RPI teams. 2-1 would make Gators solid 10 seed.
Right Now: IN
<span style="font-weight: bold;">56 Charlotte</span> (18-8, 8-4 in A-10, 3-7 vs. Top 50, SJU, at GWU, at URI, RICH remaining)
Pros: Good overall and conference mark, three quality wins
Cons: Weaker schedule
Note: Home game against Richmond to end season is must win
Right Now: OUT
<span style="font-weight: bold;">62 Mississippi State</span> (19-8 overall, 7-5 in SEC, 1-3 vs. Top 50, UA at USC, at AUB, UT remaining)
Pros: Good overall record
Cons: Lack of quality wins, three bad losses, only one more chance at quality win in regular season
Note: 3-1/4-0 is a must, probably need to make semifinals of SEC Tournament
Right Now: OUT
<span style="font-weight: bold;">64 South Florida </span>(16-10 overall, 6-8 in Big East, 2-3 vs, Top 50, at NOVA, PROV, at DePaul, UCONN remaining)
Pros: Solid record in toughest conference
Cons: 10 losses, losing conference record
Note: A win at Villanova would be huge for USF, other wise will have to win out to keep bid.
Right Now: IN
<span style="font-weight: bold;">71 Marquette</span> (16-9 overall, 7-6 in Big East, 3-7 vs. Top 50, at SJ, at SHU, LOU, ND remaining)
Pros: Solid record in Big East, three quality wins
Cons: Low RPI
Note: Doesn't have the firepower left in remaining schedule, but could finish would 10 Big East wins.
Right Now: IN
