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The Ukraine war. (Yes, we'll mind our manners)

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vhcat1970

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Gotta love it:

"A Polish court ordered the release of a Ukrainian man wanted by Germany for allegedly taking part in the sabotage of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, the latest twist in a case that has stoked tension over the prosecution of suspects seen as aiding Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

Volodymyr Zhuravlev, 45 years old, was detained last month near Warsaw on a German warrant alleging he was involved in blowing up the pipelines in September 2022. The pipelines, which linked Russia and Germany under the Baltic Sea, were the world’s largest offshore gas conduits at the time.

The judge ruled that the evidence presented by German authorities was insufficient. He said the attack on the pipeline was a legitimate operation considering that it was undertaken in wartime as Ukraine sought to defend itself against Russia. “The act of blowing up [the Nord Stream pipeline] is an act of sabotage, but not during the times of war and if it is the property of an aggressor,” said Polish judge Dariusz Lubowski. "

At least Poland knows who the good guys are in that war even if Germany doesn't.

 
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@BigBlueFanGA

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Jul 6, 2025
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bigblueinsanity (the real) said:
Hard for me to accept a poll in a nation that isnt allowed to vote.

I am still confident we have no idea what's actually happening over there, which was my initial complaint when all this started. I never recall a conflict where facts were so murky. Almost everything, if not everything, is just propaganda to some degree or another.
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Holding elections in the middle of this war against an aggressor known for manipulating your elections, yeah, it would be brilliant to hold those elections. Come on, I know you arent that blind.
 
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@BigBlueFanGA

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bigblueinsanity (the real) said:
Every negotiation starts with a demand of some sort. Ukraine just has zero leverage other than public perception. Unfortunately for everyone, Russia cares nothing about public perception.

The only thing that would move the needle enough would be nations stop buying Russian oil until a peace is brokered. Unless that happens, they have zero incentive to do anything.

Its also telling that the very same nations that are still buying Russian oil are all also wagging their finger at them. Apparently its faux concern, otherwise theyd stop doing business with them.

Either stop the faux outrage and stop buying the oil or just stop the faux outrage.
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I just went through a personal financial negotiation with lots of zeroes. Demands, in the nature of what you're saying aren't fruitful. Hard line demands are a fast way to shut down negotiations. They require intelligence and tact. Any dimwit can swing a hammer. Hammers are implied. It's more a declaration than a demand.
 
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@BigBlueFanGA

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Jul 6, 2025
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@BigBlueFanGA said:
Holding elections in the middle of this war against an aggressor known for manipulating your elections, yeah, it would be brilliant to hold those elections. Come on, I know you arent that blind.
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I would expect little more from you. Careful, your general lack of vision and intellect is showing.
 
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vhcat1970

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So today Trump said Putin's goal has always been to take all of Ukraine. Some have said he wanted just parts. Net, the issue is now settled. Thanks for the clarity, Mr. President.
 
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bcw1153

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Jul 4, 2025
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vhcat1970 said:
Could you please translate.
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Your phone browser should have a language translator but cliff notes/quick version: Russia is going broke. China suspending oil buys from Lukoil and Rosneft is going to take a revenue stream toll among other things, like the Trump sanctions placed today.
 
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bcw1153

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As of September 1, six subjects of the Russian Federation had balances in bank accounts covering less than 1% of the approved budget for the year - that is, they could afford no more than 2-3 days of expenses at the expense of reserves, according to the data of the rating agency "Expert RA".

The Arkhangelsk region with a population of about 1 million people and an annual budget of 156 billion rubles had only 50 million rubles in reserve - an amount equivalent to 0.03% of approved expenditures for the year. Kalmykia has only 40 million rubles left in its accounts, or 0.1% of annual expenses.

The reserves of the Volgograd region with a population of 2.4 million people and a budget of 196 billion rubles fell to 100 million rubles, or 0.04% of annual expenses. The Belgorod region (budget - 184 billion rubles, population - 1.5 million people) has only 200 million rubles left in its accounts, or 0.1% of the amount required for the year.

Less than 0.5% of the annual budget - one or two days of expenses - kept in reserve the Ulyanovsk region (500 million rubles) and the Irkutsk region (900 million rubles). The reserves of the Murmansk region have fallen to 1 billion rubles: its reserves will be enough for two days of expenses, or 0.7% of the annual budget.

About 5 days of expenses can afford at the expense of the reserves of Novosibirsk, Tula and Yaroslavl regions: their reserves on the accounts have shrowed to 5.2 billion rubles, 2.3 billion rubles and 2.1 billion rubles, respectively.

The Russian regions ended the first half of the year with a deficit of 397.8 billion rubles, which by the end of September increased by 724.8 billion. Every third entity (26) recorded a drop in income in nominal terms, and in real terms - taking into account inflation - revenues decreased in 53 regions.

With a "hole" in local finances, 67 regions closed the first half of the year. And the champions in terms of deficit were the Kemerovo region (34% of revenues), Arkhangelsk region (31%), Komi (30%), Murmansk (28%), Vologda (25%) and Irkutsk region (24.6%), previously estimated economist Natalia Zubarevich.

In the Irkutsk region, due to the budget crisis, the sequestration of expenses has already begun: in September, the authorities announced plans to reduce spending on education and health care by 4.9 billion rubles. In 12 regions, teachers faced salary reductions, in three regions - Yaroslavl, Ulyanovsk regions and Dagestan - the authorities began to consider raising taxes for small businesses to cover deficits. And in the Orenburg, Novosibirsk regions and in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, bills to increase the transport tax were submitted to regional parliaments.

The situation with regional budgets is "difficult" and will only worsen by the end of the year, Zubarevich believes: "In December there will be large expenses for closing state contracts". According to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance, in December, the expenses of the regions will exceed revenues by 370 billion rubles, and next year - by 300 billion.
 
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@BigBlueFanGA

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Beatle Bum said:


“With Ukraine asking U.S. and European allies for long-range missiles to help turn the tide in the war, Putin also warned that Moscow's response to strikes deep into Russia would be ‘very serious, if not overwhelming’.”
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He has so many lines in the sand, he could play tic-tac-toe. Rattle that sabre Putin. When it comes to NATO, he's a paper tiger.
 
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Beatle Bum

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“Bombs can’t stop markers,” only elections.

www.bbc.com

In Russia's 'blitz' of Ukraine, the question of appeasement is back - BBC News

A large gulf remains between the US and European view of how to end the Ukraine war.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

“Warning of the risks of escalation, he also refused to grant Ukraine the use of the long-range Tomahawk missiles to strike deep into Russia.“

Escalation? No and LOL!! Putin’s a bluffer. Give Ukraine the long-range misslies, it won’t cause escalation! Right?
 
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@BigBlueFanGA

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Putin has drawn an almost endless string of "lines in the sand". Surprisingly, many in this thread still believe the threats are real. So far as NATO is concerned, Putin knows he drew an Ace 2 off suit. Sabre rattling is quite literally his only play with NATO.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

More ‘Red Lines’ than troops: Russia’s endless warnings

"Putin’s red lines are about as firm as jelly. They exist mainly to sow doubt and fear in Western capitals, delaying military support for Ukraine."
ukdefencejournal.org.uk ukdefencejournal.org.uk
 
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@BigBlueFanGA

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Beatle Bum said:
Some cannot post a link without throwing out a strawman or two. 😂
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That is not a strawman. It is directly on point with you and others. Now, if you wanted to criticize my poker hand, have at it. Dummy here meant to post 8-2 off suit.

I guess you'll call my next link a strawman too, but it is a classic example of what I've said about Russian technology many times. If I were there, I'd be pretty worried about Russian nukes blowing up on Russian soil. Now, here is the demonstrative video.

 
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bigblueinsanity (the real)

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@BigBlueFanGA said:
I just went through a personal financial negotiation with lots of zeroes. Demands, in the nature of what you're saying aren't fruitful. Hard line demands are a fast way to shut down negotiations. They require intelligence and tact. Any dimwit can swing a hammer. Hammers are implied. It's more a declaration than a demand.
Click to expand...

Good for you.

Where did my post say we should demand something? It didn't. The mentioned activity shouldn't be at the demand of anyone.

The whole point of the post and the general point is obviously none of these European countries care about this conflict. If they did, they would stop doing the one thing that ensures Ukraine will never have a favorable negotiating position. Instead, they say one thing but do another; which makes this conflict much more difficult to navigate.
 
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@BigBlueFanGA

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Jul 6, 2025
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bigblueinsanity (the real) said:
Good for you.

Where did my post say we should demand something? It didn't. The mentioned activity shouldn't be at the demand of anyone.

The whole point of the post and the general point is obviously none of these European countries care about this conflict. If they did, they would stop doing the one thing that ensures Ukraine will never have a favorable negotiating position. Instead, they say one thing but do another; which makes this conflict much more difficult to navigate.
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Agreed and I may have misunderstood the first sentence in the post I replied to.
 
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vhcat1970

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vhcat1970 said:
So today Trump said Putin's goal has always been to take all of Ukraine. Some have said he wanted just parts. Net, the issue is now settled. Thanks for the clarity, Mr. President.
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Supporting this:

"It’s time to accept that Vladimir Putin likely believes any realistic end to the war in Ukraine on negotiated terms would endanger his rule. Such is the burden of a new U.S. intelligence finding that is circulating on Capitol Hill. Mr. Putin can’t justify the deaths and waste so they must continue."

The same is expressed by longtime Russia economy expert Anders Aslund: “Russia is no longer trying to win the war. It’s trying to have a long war that it can maintain.” Historian Mark Galeotti sees Mr. Putin as an “old man in the bunker,” paralyzed by uncertainty in the face of Trump proffers that could’ve afforded him an exit from a costly and unavailing campaign."

"As laid out on Friday by his Ukrainian frontman Viktor Medvedchuk in a TASS interview for Mr. Putin’s domestic audience, Mr. Putin isn’t interested in the partial annexation he still talks about. He requires total control of Ukraine."

"If the war were to end, 700,000 soldiers who signed open-ended contacts (and are still alive) would return home after a long sequestration at the front, brutalized, traumatized, many of them criminals plucked from jail to fight.

The regime would have to declare victory, making it harder to keep suppressing discussion of the war and its costs. The security apparat would weary of the task. Meanwhile, money to impoverished regions in the form of military sign-up bonuses and death benefits would dry up. Having pocketed their windfalls, survivors and those caring for injured vets would have incentive anew to bemoan their sacrifice and demand redress."

"The war is existential for Mr. Putin, it’s not for Russia. Mr. Putin doesn’t pull the trigger on a national draft, which would save him billions he now spends on his mercenary army, because it might accelerate his own date with a lamppost."

Bottom line, Putin can't end the war w/o declaring total victory or he's dead. So it will go on.

 
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Beatle Bum

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vhcat1970

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Not sure how you have a negotiated resolution when one of the parties isn't part of the negotiations. Seems like a misnomer.

I know little of the details at this point, but what I think I do know seems like surrender terms being handed by Trump & Russia to Ukraine - part now & part whenever Putin wants to exercise the rest, probably after he can rebuild his forces from the stop point & after Trump is gone. I mean no one will support Ukraine against further Russia invasion once they agree to this. They're goners.
 
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Beatle Bum

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vhcat1970 said:
Not sure how you have a negotiated resolution when one of the parties isn't part of the negotiations. Seems like a misnomer.
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how many settlements have you negotiated?

vhcat1970 said:
I know little of the details at this point, but what I think I do know seems like surrender terms being handed by Trump & Russia to Ukraine - part now & part whenever Putin wants to exercise the rest, probably after he can rebuild his forces from the stop point & after Trump is gone. I mean no one will support Ukraine against further Russia invasion once they agree to this. They're goners.
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seems you don’t like the idea of this war ending.
 
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vhcat1970

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Beatle Bum said:
how many settlements have you negotiated?
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Nothing to do with one of the two parties being excluded from the proposal. I can't think of another example except surrenders. Seems like an ultimatum by a non-belligerent more than anything.
Beatle Bum said:
seems you don’t like the idea of this war ending.
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You infer whatever suits your mood at the time without reason.

What I said this would ultimately be the end of a fully independent Ukraine imo.
 
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Beatle Bum

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vhcat1970 said:
Nothing to do with one of the two parties being excluded from the proposal.
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I will take that as “never.”

vhcat1970 said:
I can't think of another example except surrenders. Seems like an ultimatum by a non-belligerent more than anything.
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They were not excluded. 🤦‍♂️



vhcat1970 said:
You infer whatever suits your mood at the time without reason.

What I said this would ultimately be the end of a fully independent Ukraine imo.
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I don’t see a fully independent Ukraine right now. What would it take to make Ukraine fully independent? It’s rhetorical, because you don’t want to admit what it would take. The status quo ain’t gonna cut it.
 
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Cats3x

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Beatle Bum said:
Reports that Trump is still working to achieve a negotiated resolution with some hope that the two sides will agree.

(Now for a strawman add on like we see from others here)

The warmongers here won’t like that! 🤪

www.bbc.com

Zelensky ready to work with US on 'their vision' for ending Ukraine war - BBC News

Kyiv says it is willing to engage with a US-backed draft peace plan aimed at ending the war with Russia.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
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Sure sounds like the scam is finally coming to an end.

Democrats and Rino's "fund raising" numbers about to fall off a cliff.
 
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