Throwback Thursday - What might have been?

[Reb_Among_Dogs]

So, I'm bored at work (slow day) and I had been thinking about this a bit. Decided to pose two scenarios to the board. Where do you think the two programs (MSU and Ole Miss) would be if the scenarios below had happened (independently of each other)?

So, where would the two programs be if Scenario 1 had happened. And where would the two programs be if Scenario 2 had happened (without Scenario 1 happening)?

Scenario 1

Mississippi State wins the 2012 Egg Bowl. This keeps Ole Miss from being bowl eligible in Freeze's first season. Perhaps some of the high profile recruits end up elsewhere. The Rebels don't get the extra practice time during the bowl season, and MSU extends the Egg Bowl streak to 4.

Is Ole Miss able to continue the trajectory anyway to 5-0 and #3 in 2014? Or does it slow them down? Would they still be ranked, but maybe sitting at 4-1 (loss to Bama) instead of where they are now? Does 2013 play out differently?

Scenario 2

Ole Miss wins the 2013 Egg Bowl (after winning 2012, so 2012 played out the way it really did). This keeps MSU from being bowl eligible in Mullen's fifth season. Perhaps his seat is hot heading into 2014 and is coaching for his job. The Bulldogs don't get extra practice time during the bowl season, and Ole Miss has won two Egg Bowls in a row.

Is MSU able to continue the trajectory anyway to 5-0 and #3 in 2014? Or does it slow them down? Would they still be ranked, but maybe sitting at 4-1 (loss to LSU or A&M) instead of where they are now? Does Dak still receive some preseason hype?

 

[bulldognation]

Doesn't matter. Happy Leif Erikson Day!

 

[patdog]

Interesting. My guesses:

Scenario 1 - It probably slows UM down some, but the key to the recruiting was getting Kimdiche and the key to getting him was his brother already being at UM. So probably not too much difference.

Scenario 2 - Mullen would be feeling tremendous heat coming into 2014. But we'd still have the same players and the same coaches we have now, so probably not too much difference.

 

[Reb_Among_Dogs]

I'm the type of person that thinks small changes can lead to big differences.

Personally, I think Ole Miss would be in slightly better shape losing the 2012 Egg Bowl than MSU would be having lost the 2013 Egg Bowl. My reasoning for that is based on expectations of the team. Ole Miss had won 2 games in 2011, so a 5-7 win would be disappointing but not a large change on the trajectory. I think the biggest difference would have been losing the extra practice time. On the other hand, many would see Mullen as regressing if the MSU had lost the 2013 Egg Bowl. Again, though, I think the largest difference would have been practice time.

If Scenario 1 had happened, I see Ole Miss as 4-1 and around 15-17 in the polls with the loss to Bama. I also would believe that our ceiling would be lower (around 8 wins max). I think MSU might have had a slightly better 2013 and not have needed the Egg Bowl win for bowl eligibility.

If Scenario 2 had happened, I think MSU would be 4-1 right now and around 17-20 in the polls with a loss to A&M (based on lower preseason expectations after a 5-7 year). I think Ole Miss would likely be right where they are because they got here with the loss. I don't think the win would have changed too much, since it is hard to get higher than 5-0 and #3.

I think it's interesting to think about, though. I do feel that if either Scenario had happened, then things would not be the same.