IMHO the 2017 and 2018 losses to OSU where we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory were the turning point. We win 3 straight (and let's admit that 2016 took an amazing but fluke play to win) vs OSU and EVERYTHING changes regarding recruiting, mystique, mind set etc.
Add in the inexplicable hangover losses to MSU the weeks following those losses and the narrative turned from "we're back" to "we caught lightning in a bottle in a magical 2016".
It was RIGHT there for us to control our own destiny and it got away from us and the gap widened with OSU.
I agree with almost everything you say (and your points are excellent) EXCEPT ...
This continuing idea that Penn State beat OSU in 2016 on a "fluke play" is as mythical and as nonsensical as the continued story of Penn State running "4 strau=ight times from the 1 yard line" in the 1979 Sugar Bowl.
Why do so many Penn State fans forget that Ohio State ALSO blocked a FG attempt in that same game, and the Buckeyes even were gifted an unforced fumble on a punt. Yet I would wager no one would have called an OSU win that day as "lucky" or attributed to a "fluke play."
I remember Frank Beamer's Va Tech teams praised lavishly for their Special Teams. The narrative was not that the Hokies won on "fluke plays" but rather on well-coached, player-driven great plays.
However, let Penn State players like Marcus Allen and Grant Haley (neither a 5-star prep All American) make great plays, and even some Penn State fans label the win a "fluke."
Penn State won that game by playing stout defense and making great plays when it counted. You know, like intercepting a Heisman-winning QB 5 times. Not flukes ... just well coached players making great plays.
You know what might be a fluke win though? The 2014 OSU win in OT over outmanned Penn State still short players from ridiculous sanctions. That Buckeye win , at least IMO, is tainted by John O'Neill and crew's (1) not overturning an incomplete pass called as an interception and (2) allowing a Buckeye FG attempt to go on 4 seconds after the play clock had expired. Those 10 points allowed OSU to take the game into OT.