Tropical Depression 9

[stateu1]

Thank you. We greatly appreciate it.

Donated.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Donated.

We greatly thank you. It means a lot to us.

 

[skipperDawg]

The City Of Gulf Shores had a post on Facebook this morning announcing that the shrimp festival is still on and asking residents to allow vendors and guests to evacuate first if and when an evacuation is announced. In my opinion vendors and guests shouldn’t be there, they had a choice and 17em, they’re on their own.

You going to stay on the coast Dawg?

 

[The Peeper]

Some dipshìt filled up 9 cans of gas. God I hate these new people. We’ll run out of gas for a cat 2 and people that need to go to work will be struggling to find stations with gas. On another note, I felt bad bad for my neighbor that spent all day putting up Halloween decorations Thursday. They were putting them back up this afternoon.

Every June when hurricane season starts, I fill up about 10 or so 5&6 gallon cans myself w/ gas and Stabil gas treatment and put them in the barn for my generator and car if needed. Sometime after February once ice season is over I start using them in my old beater truck that I haul lumber, mulch, plants, etc in and run it down until I have a couple 5 gallon cans worth that I keep year round. Katrina taught me a lesson I won't forget, damn those long gas lines and rationing. I didn't need the gas myself but had friends and relatives in the Pine Belt that needed it badly. Bourbon and gasoline were the two commodities they all seemed to want, maybe that's just the crowd I hang with?

 

[SteeleMagnolia2]

Mempho is going to be interesting

We have a crew going. Looks like Sunday will be okay but Saturday sure is going to be up in the air.

 

[Msdeltareb]

Every now and then I get asked why I am on this board - these weather threads are the biggest reason. As a single dad with two kids at a Jackson area private school, I ain't exactly rolling in cash, but @Hugh's Burner Phone gets a donation. Excellent work as always.

 

[HailStout]

Every June when hurricane season starts, I fill up about 10 or so 5&6 gallon cans myself w/ gas and Stabil gas treatment and put them in the barn for my generator and car if needed. Sometime after February once ice season is over I start using them in my old beater truck that I haul lumber, mulch, plants, etc in and run it down until I have a couple 5 gallon cans worth that I keep year round. Katrina taught me a lesson I won't forget, damn those long gas lines and rationing. I didn't need the gas myself but had friends and relatives in the Pine Belt that needed it badly. Bourbon and gasoline were the two commodities they all seemed to want, maybe that's just the crowd I hang with?

You are doing it wrong. Wait until the hurricane enters the gulf and then panic buy gasoline to make sure it runs out

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Every now and then I get asked why I am on this board - these weather threads are the biggest reason. As a single dad with two kids at a Jackson area private school, I ain't exactly rolling in cash, but @Hugh's Burner Phone gets a donation. Excellent work as always.

I appreciate the kind words and the donation.

I forgot to add that all donations are 100% tax deductible, too, since we are a charitable nonprofit.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Not much change in the 10:00am update. Winds have increased to 45mph and the forecast track is relatively unchanged. We should start getting the morning model runs in over the next 1-3 hours so we'll know then if they're agreeing with the current track forecast.

 

[FlotownDawg]

Gulf Shores Shrimp Fest has been canceled due to the hurricane.

 

[HailStout]

Gulf Shores Shrimp Fest has been canceled due to the hurricane.

That is a big loss for the economy over there

 

[patdog]

The City Of Gulf Shores had a post on Facebook this morning announcing that the shrimp festival is still on and asking residents to allow vendors and guests to evacuate first if and when an evacuation is announced. In my opinion vendors and guests shouldn’t be there, they had a choice and 17em, they’re on their own.

Yeah, if I'm living there and they order an evacuation, I'm heading north. I'm not waiting several hours.

 

[Hotdiggydawg]

Donated

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Donated

Thank you so much. I can't put into words how much all of this helps us.

 

[Darryl Steight]

I don't know that this site tells us anything helpful, but it's a cool site I like looking at, especially with a hurricane out in the gulf. Pretty sure someone here posted the link, which is where I originally got it.

Current Wind Velocities

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Several of the morning model runs are in. Here is their current thinking as far as landfall location, strength, and landfall timing.

GFS Gulf Shores Cat 1 Overnight Friday
Canadian Biloxi Cat 1 Saturday morning.
ICON Pensacola Cat 1 Overnight Friday
UKMET MS/AL line. Cat 2 Saturday morning
GFSAI Pensacola Cat 1 Saturday morning
NAM Gulf Shores Trop Strm Overnight Friday
RDPS Bay St Louis Cat 1/2 Overnight Friday
Euro Biloxi Cat 1. Saturday morning

Edited to add Euro.

 

[The Peeper]

Gulf Shores Shrimp Fest has been canceled due to the hurricane.

Cruising the Coast is going to suck too..................

 

[mcdawg22]

Every June when hurricane season starts, I fill up about 10 or so 5&6 gallon cans myself w/ gas and Stabil gas treatment and put them in the barn for my generator and car if needed. Sometime after February once ice season is over I start using them in my old beater truck that I haul lumber, mulch, plants, etc in and run it down until I have a couple 5 gallon cans worth that I keep year round. Katrina taught me a lesson I won't forget, damn those long gas lines and rationing. I didn't need the gas myself but had friends and relatives in the Pine Belt that needed it badly. Bourbon and gasoline were the two commodities they all seemed to want, maybe that's just the crowd I hang with?

We gradually buy water bit by bit over the spring and accumulate it. We use it for our annual karaoke party, Halloween, New Years, and Super Bowl parties for the kids and non drinkers. If we still have a lot left over we just store it. We are a drink from the fridge/faucet family.

 

[msudawg12]

How bad will it suck going early morning saturday through sunday afternoon with the fam in NOLA

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

How bad will it suck going early morning saturday through sunday afternoon with the fam in NOLA

Will all depend on the eventual track. If it goes into AL or Florida impacts should be minimal. If it goes into MS then NOLA will see some heavy rain and gusty north winds. Storm surge would not be an issue, though.

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

How bad will it suck going early morning saturday through sunday afternoon with the fam in NOLA

Are you asking because you plan on looting?***

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Hurricane and tropical storm watches have now been issued. Winds up to 50mph.

 

[johnson86-1]

I don't understand that logic. They admit there's a distinct possibility of an event that would necessitate an evacuation yet they're still holding an event that will bring in 1,000's of extra people. Reminds me of the mayor in Jaws refusing to close the beaches and then trying to justify it after the attack.

Lots of events get cancelled and then have beautiful weather. Easy to say better safe than sorry when it’s not your money, but I get the pressure for the people responsible.
Plus you have to remember that while we’ve had a quiet two years, there are years where there are multiple close calls and people get used to waiting until the last safe moment, and sometimes beyond, to make a final decision. The Mississippi coast was in a cone for a hurricane something crazy like 5 different times one year without I don’t think ever being hit. Probably like 5 years ago?

ETA: looks like it was 2020 and there were 6 cones that touched them before finally getting hit by zeta.

 

[dorndawg]

IN. At this point, Hugh is basically my weatherman.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

IN. At this point, Hugh is basically my weatherman.

I appreciate it greatly.

 

[hatfieldms]

IN. At this point, Hugh is basically my weatherman.

Yes I have caught myself coming to this thread for updates instead of the normal avenues

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

Hurricane and tropical storm watches have now been issued. Winds up to 50mph.

View attachment 1473190

Do you have anything on potential tidal surge? I am asking for a friend.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Do you have anything on potential tidal surge? I am asking for a friend.

I don't yet. If I weee guessing, the first surge forecasts will be tonight or tomorrow.

 

[dudehead]

Hurricane and tropical storm watches have now been issued. Winds up to 50mph.

View attachment 1473190

Looks like Orange Beach/Perdido here we come.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Do you have anything on potential tidal surge? I am asking for a friend.

Let me take my previous comment back. Storm surge watch is out for the eastern MS coast and AL for a 4-7ft surge in surge prone areas. Window is Friday morning to Saturday morning. For central and western MS coast into LA the watch is for 3-5ft.

 

[PCHSDawg]

I guess a benefit of the dry summer is the ground is as hard as I've seen it so the wind will have to work to uproot my trees.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Well if you were waiting for this storm to help your food plots you might be disappointed .

 

[Col. Forbin]

Is the NHC relying heavier on Google AI modeling over the traditional models on this one? The Google AI model run has this storm hitting more east around pensacola than the others from what I have seen.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Are you asking because you plan on looting?***

"Mostly Peaceful Looting"

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Latest update has it with winds up to 65mph and a slight jog to the east on the forecast track. Expect it to be a hurricane tonight.

 

[HotMop]

Latest update has it with winds up to 65mph and a slight jog to the east on the forecast track. Expect it to be a hurricane tonight.

View attachment 1473444

Stop jogging east damnit, October 10, 2018 sucked when Michael hit Panama City and Mexico Beach.

 

[mcdawg22]

Stop jogging east damnit, October 10, 2018 sucked when Michael hit Panama City and Mexico Beach.

Keep jogging east damnit. Let’s compromise and have it hit Cedar Key. West side is the best side!

 

[HailStout]

Keep jogging east damnit. Let’s compromise and have it hit Cedar Key. West side is the best side!

Jog away!!

 

[Coast_Dawg]

Several of the morning model runs are in. Here is their current thinking as far as landfall location, strength, and landfall timing.

GFS Gulf Shores Cat 1 Overnight Friday
Canadian Biloxi Cat 1 Saturday morning.
ICON Pensacola Cat 1 Overnight Friday
UKMET MS/AL line. Cat 2 Saturday morning
GFSAI Pensacola Cat 1 Saturday morning
NAM Gulf Shores Trop Strm Overnight Friday
RDPS Bay St Louis Cat 1/2 Overnight Friday
Euro Biloxi Cat 1. Saturday morning

Edited to add Euro.

Canadians, Euro’s, UK’s, RDPS can respectfully go 17 themselves. That is all. Thank you for the updates.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

Jog, crawl, slither, ,,,just get right of me....
Looks like it has moved, from my last look.