TrueSkill Rankings

[fluoxetine]

PREDICTIVE - Thru 12/08/2022

Top 25
#1 Houston (9-0)
#2 Tennessee (8-1)
#3 Connecticut (10-0)
#4 Purdue (9-0)
#5 Gonzaga (6-3)
#6 Indiana (8-1)
#7 UCLA (7-2)
#8 Illinois (7-2)
#9 Texas (6-1)
#10 Baylor (7-2)
#11 Iowa (7-2)
#12 Kentucky (6-2)
#13 Kansas (8-1)
#14 Arizona (7-1)
#15 Saint Mary's (7-3)
#16 Duke (9-2)
#17 Auburn (8-0)
#18 Virginia (8-0)
#19 Alabama (7-1)
#20 Rutgers (6-3)
#21 West Virginia (7-2)
#22 Xavier (6-3)
#23 Oklahoma St. (6-3)
#24 Mississippi St. (8-0)
#25 Ohio St. (7-2)

Big Ten
1. #4 Purdue (9-0)
2. #6 Indiana (8-1)
3. #8 Illinois (7-2)
4. #11 Iowa (7-2)
5. #20 Rutgers (6-3)
6. #25 Ohio St. (7-2)
7. #29 Maryland (8-1)
8. #43 Michigan St. (6-4)
9. #44 Wisconsin (7-2)
10. #52 Penn St. (6-3)
11. #56 Northwestern (6-2)
12. #58 Michigan (6-3)
13. #110 Nebraska (6-4)
14. #190 Minnesota (4-5)

OOC
#342 Columbia (2-8)
#283 Sacred Heart (4-5)
#109 UMass Lowell (8-1)
#100 Temple (6-4)
#228 Rider (3-4)
#345 Central Connecticut (0-9)
#65 Miami FL (9-1)
#57 Seton Hall (4-4)
#83 Wake Forest (7-2)
#207 Bucknell (5-4)
#291 Coppin St. (4-7)

 

[fluoxetine]

Me/Kenpom/Bart/NET

Purdue - #4 / #5 / #5 / #3
Indiana - #6 / #10 / #12 / #8
Illinois - #8 / #12 / #13 / #10
Iowa - #11 / #20 / #15 / #24
Rutgers - #20 / #27 / #31 / #25
Ohio St. - #25 / #21 / #28 / #26
Maryland - #29 / #19 / #16 / #15
Michigan St. - #43 / #37 / #56 / #72
Wisconsin - #44 / #42 / #37 / #61
Penn St. - #52 / #47 / #49 / #77
Northwestern - #56 / #63 / #79 / #70
Michigan - #58 / #45 / #62 / #90
Nebraska - #110 / #81 / #87 / #68
Minnesota - #190 / #158 / #191 / #247

 

[fluoxetine]

Thru 12/09 - Predictive

1. #4 Purdue (9-0)
2. #6 Indiana (8-1)
3. #8 Illinois (7-2)
4. #11 Iowa (7-2)
5. #20 Rutgers (6-3)
6. #25 Ohio St. (7-2)
7. #29 Maryland (8-1)
8. #43 Michigan St. (6-4)
9. #44 Wisconsin (7-2)
10. #52 Penn St. (6-3)
11. #56 Northwestern (6-2)
12. #58 Michigan (6-3)
13. #110 Nebraska (6-4)
14. #190 Minnesota (4-5)

 

[fluoxetine]

Thru 12/10 - Predictive

1. #5 Purdue (10-0)
2. #8 Indiana (8-2)
3. #12 Iowa (7-2)
4. #14 Illinois (7-3)
5. #23 Rutgers (6-3)
6. #27 Ohio St. (7-2)
7. #29 Maryland (8-1)
8. #39 Penn St. (7-3)
9. #40 Michigan St. (7-4)
10. #45 Wisconsin (7-2)
11. #54 Michigan (6-3)
12. #55 Northwestern (6-2)
13. #106 Nebraska (6-5)
14. #188 Minnesota (4-5)

 

[fluoxetine]

12/11/2022 - WIN/LOSS ONLY

Top 25
#1 Kansas (9-1)
#2 Purdue (10-0)
#3 Gonzaga (7-3)
#4 Baylor (7-2)
#5 Connecticut (11-0)
#6 Arizona (8-1)
#7 Tennessee (9-1)
#8 Houston (9-1)
#9 Duke (10-2)
#10 Wisconsin (8-2)
#11 Alabama (8-1)
#12 Virginia (8-0)
#13 Arkansas (9-1)
#14 Auburn (8-1)
#15 Texas (7-1)
#16 UCLA (8-2)
#17 Kentucky (7-2)
#18 Miami FL (10-1)
#19 Virginia Tech (10-1)
#20 Illinois (7-3)
#21 Iowa (7-3)
#22 Texas Tech (6-2)
#23 Ohio St (7-2)
#24 Iowa St (8-2)
#25 Michigan St (7-4)

Big Ten
1. #2 Purdue (10-0, 2-0)
2. #10 Wisconsin (8-2, 2-0)
3. #20 Illinois (7-3, 0-2)
4. #21 Iowa (7-3, 0-1)
5. #23 Ohio St (7-2, 1-0)
6. #25 Michigan St (7-4, 1-1)
7. #33 Indiana (8-2, 1-1)
8. #35 Maryland (8-2, 1-1)
9. #42 Michigan (6-3, 1-0)
10. #50 Penn St (7-3, 1-1)
11. #64 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
12. #71 Rutgers (6-4, 1-1)
13. #111 Nebraska (6-5, 0-2)
14. #130 Minnesota (4-6, 0-2)

OOC
#355 Columbia (2-9)
#309 Sacred Heart (4-6)
#139 MA Lowell (9-1)
#114 Temple (6-5)
#239 Rider (3-4)
#354 Central Conn (1-10)
#18 Miami FL (10-1)
#49 Seton Hall (5-4)
#51 Wake Forest (7-3)
#277 Bucknell (5-4)
#276 Coppin St (4-8)

 

[fluoxetine]

12/11/2022 - PREDICTIVE

Top 25
#1 Houston (9-1)
#2 Tennessee (9-1)
#3 Connecticut (11-0)
#4 Gonzaga (7-3)
#5 Purdue (10-0)
#6 Texas (7-1)
#7 UCLA (8-2)
#8 Indiana (8-2)
#9 Kansas (9-1)
#10 Baylor (7-2)
#11 Arizona (8-1)
#12 Illinois (7-3)
#13 Kentucky (7-2)
#14 Iowa (7-3)
#15 Saint Mary's (8-3)
#16 Alabama (8-1)
#17 Duke (10-2)
#18 Virginia (8-0)
#19 Auburn (8-1)
#20 West Virginia (8-2)
#21 Memphis (8-2)
#22 Mississippi St. (9-0)
#23 Xavier (7-3)
#24 North Carolina (6-4)
#25 Ohio St. (7-2)

Big Ten
1. #5 Purdue (10-0, 2-0)
2. #8 Indiana (8-2, 1-1)
3. #12 Illinois (7-3, 0-2)
4. #14 Iowa (7-3, 0-1)
5. #25 Ohio St. (7-2, 1-0)
6. #28 Maryland (8-2, 1-1)
7. #29 Rutgers (6-4, 1-1)
8. #36 Wisconsin (8-2, 2-0)
9. #41 Penn St. (7-3, 1-1)
10. #42 Michigan St. (7-4, 1-1)
11. #56 Michigan (6-3, 1-0)
12. #58 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
13. #107 Nebraska (6-5, 0-2)
14. #191 Minnesota (4-6, 0-2)

OOC
#343 Columbia (2-9)
#299 Sacred Heart (4-6)
#115 UMass Lowell (9-1)
#112 Temple (6-5)
#230 Rider (3-4)
#341 Central Connecticut (1-10)
#62 Miami FL (10-1)
#51 Seton Hall (5-4)
#84 Wake Forest (7-3)
#211 Bucknell (5-4)
#291 Coppin St. (4-8)

 

[fluoxetine]

Comparison

Team - Predictive / Kenpom / Bart / NET / WL Only

Purdue - #5 / #5 / #4 / #3 / #2
Indiana - #8 / #16 / #17 / #20 / #33
Illinois - #12 / #19 / #22 / #26 / #20
Iowa - #14 / #24 / #21 / #36 / #21
Ohio St. - #25 / #20 / #29 / #31 / #23
Maryland - #28 / #17 / #19 / #17 / #35
Rutgers - #29 / #32 / #34 / #45 / #71
Wisconsin - #36 / #35 / #32 / #44 / #10
Penn St. - #41 / #33 / #38 / #50 / #50
Michigan St. - #42 / #38 / #48 / #60 / #25
Michigan - #56 / #44 / #63 / #81 / #42
Northwestern - #58 / #67 / #81 / #73 / #64
Nebraska - #107 / #80 / #83 / #75 / #111
Minnesota - #191 / #167 / #202 / #243 / #130

 

[fluoxetine]

Thru 12/17 - Predictive

1. #6 Purdue (11-0)
2. #11 Indiana (8-3)
3. #12 Iowa (8-3)
4. #15 Illinois (8-3)
5. #25 Rutgers (7-4)
6. #28 Ohio St. (7-3)
7. #34 Maryland (8-3)
8. #38 Wisconsin (9-2)
9. #40 Penn St. (7-3)
10. #42 Michigan St. (7-4)
11. #48 Northwestern (8-2)
12. #61 Michigan (7-3)
13. #109 Nebraska (6-6)
14. #196 Minnesota (5-6)

 

[G- RUnit]

Thanks!! Which do you rely/like/most accurate?

 

[fluoxetine]

Thanks!! Which do you rely/like/most accurate?

I’ve checked the prediction accuracy of mine vs Bart. I’ve done slightly (very slightly) better, but the caveat there is that Bart tends to be better in the beginning of the season and mine better near the end.

I can’t check vs Kenpom without a subscription which I don’t have

 

[fluoxetine]

W/L only is worthless compared to “predictive”. I just find it interesting to see what happens when using only W/L data

 

[fluoxetine]

12/18/2022 - WIN/LOSS ONLY

Top 25
#1 Kansas (10-1)
#2 Purdue (11-0)
#3 Gonzaga (9-3)
#4 Connecticut (12-0)
#5 Arizona (10-1)
#6 Baylor (8-2)
#7 Houston (11-1)
#8 Duke (10-2)
#9 Tennessee (9-2)
#10 Wisconsin (9-2)
#11 UCLA (10-2)
#12 Alabama (9-2)
#13 Arkansas (10-1)
#14 Texas (9-1)
#15 Virginia (8-1)
#16 Auburn (9-2)
#17 Miami FL (11-1)
#18 Virginia Tech (11-1)
#19 Illinois (8-3)
#20 Iowa (8-3)
#21 Texas Tech (8-2)
#22 North Carolina (8-4)
#23 Kentucky (7-3)
#24 Marquette (9-3)
#25 Providence (9-3)

Big Ten
1. #2 Purdue (11-0)
2. #10 Wisconsin (9-2)
3. #19 Illinois (8-3)
4. #20 Iowa (8-3)
5. #29 Michigan St (7-4)
6. #34 Ohio St (7-3)
7. #36 Indiana (8-3)
8. #41 Michigan (7-3)
9. #42 Maryland (8-3)
10. #49 Penn St (8-3)
11. #61 Northwestern (8-2)
12. #68 Rutgers (7-4)
13. #119 Nebraska (6-6)
14. #133 Minnesota (5-6)

OOC
#355 Columbia (3-9)
#315 Sacred Heart (4-7)
#158 MA Lowell (9-2)
#122 Temple (6-6)
#243 Rider (3-4)
#352 Central Conn (2-10)
#17 Miami FL (11-1)
#51 Seton Hall (6-5)
#53 Wake Forest (8-4)
#269 Bucknell (6-4)
#285 Coppin St (4-9)

 

[fluoxetine]

12/18/2022 - PREDICTIVE

Top 25
#1 Houston (11-1)
#2 Tennessee (9-2)
#3 Connecticut (12-0)
#4 UCLA (10-2)
#5 Gonzaga (9-3)
#6 Purdue (11-0)
#7 Kansas (10-1)
#8 Arizona (10-1)
#9 Texas (9-1)
#10 Baylor (8-2)
#11 Indiana (8-3)
#12 Iowa (8-3)
#13 Kentucky (7-3)
#14 Illinois (8-3)
#15 Saint Mary's (9-4)
#16 Duke (10-2)
#17 Alabama (9-2)
#18 Virginia (8-1)
#19 Texas Tech (8-2)
#20 North Carolina (8-4)
#21 West Virginia (9-2)
#22 Memphis (9-3)
#23 Xavier (9-3)
#24 Rutgers (7-4)
#25 Arkansas (10-1)

Big Ten
1. #6 Purdue (11-0)
2. #11 Indiana (8-3)
3. #12 Iowa (8-3)
4. #14 Illinois (8-3)
5. #24 Rutgers (7-4)
6. #27 Ohio St. (7-3)
7. #33 Maryland (8-3)
8. #36 Penn St. (8-3)
9. #39 Wisconsin (9-2)
10. #42 Michigan St. (7-4)
11. #46 Northwestern (8-2)
12. #61 Michigan (7-3)
13. #108 Nebraska (6-6)
14. #195 Minnesota (5-6)

OOC
#337 Columbia (3-9)
#305 Sacred Heart (4-7)
#115 UMass Lowell (9-2)
#109 Temple (6-6)
#233 Rider (3-4)
#338 Central Connecticut (2-10)
#67 Miami FL (11-1)
#54 Seton Hall (6-5)
#95 Wake Forest (8-4)
#216 Bucknell (6-4)
#297 Coppin St. (4-9)

 

[fluoxetine]

Comparison

Team - Predictive / Kenpom / Bart / NET / WL Only

Purdue - #6 / #7 / #6 / #3 / #2
Indiana - #11 / #16 / #27 / #23 / #36
Iowa - #12 / #21 / #19 / #30 / #20
Illinois - #14 / #20 / #23 / #28 / #19
Rutgers - #24 / #28 / #26 / #40 / #68
Ohio St. - #27 / #18 / #25 / #26 / #34
Maryland - #33 / #27 / #33 / #35 / #42
Penn St. - #36 / #33 / #39 / #41 / #49
Wisconsin - #39 / #35 / #38 / #44 / #10
Michigan St. - #42 / #40 / #51 / #61 / #29
Northwestern - #46 / #56 / #67 / #62 / #61
Michigan - #61 / #50 / #66 / #86 / #41
Nebraska - #108 / #83 / #99 / #81 / #119
Minnesota - #195 / #178 / #207 / #240 / #133

 

[fluoxetine]

12/21/2022 - PREDICTIVE / Midweek update with some interesting games

Top 25
#1 Houston (12-1)
#2 Tennessee (10-3)
#3 Connecticut (13-0)
#4 UCLA (11-2)
#5 Kansas (10-1)
#6 Gonzaga (10-3)
#7 Arizona (11-1)
#8 Purdue (12-0)
#9 Texas (10-1)
#10 Indiana (9-3)
#11 Baylor (9-2)
#12 Illinois (8-3)
#13 Saint Mary's (10-4)
#14 Kentucky (8-3)
#15 Texas Tech (9-2)
#16 Auburn (10-2)
#17 Alabama (10-2)
#18 Duke (10-3)
#19 Virginia (8-2)
#20 Arkansas (11-1)
#21 Iowa (8-4)
#22 Ohio St. (8-3)
#23 North Carolina (9-4)
#24 West Virginia (9-2)
#25 Rutgers (7-4)

Big Ten
1. #8 Purdue (12-0)
2. #10 Indiana (9-3)
3. #12 Illinois (8-3)
4. #21 Iowa (8-4)
5. #22 Ohio St. (8-3)
6. #25 Rutgers (7-4)
7. #31 Northwestern (9-2)
8. #32 Maryland (8-3)
9. #34 Penn St. (8-3)
10. #38 Wisconsin (9-2)
11. #48 Michigan St. (8-4)
12. #57 Michigan (7-4)
13. #109 Nebraska (7-6)
14. #197 Minnesota (5-6)

OOC
#339 Columbia (3-9)
#306 Sacred Heart (4-8)
#111 UMass Lowell (10-2)
#131 Temple (6-7)
#232 Rider (3-5)
#341 Central Connecticut (2-11)
#64 Miami FL (12-1)
#52 Seton Hall (6-6)
#91 Wake Forest (9-4)
#219 Bucknell (6-5)
#280 Coppin St. (5-9)

 

[fluoxetine]

This model is/was higher on Iowa than others. They've dropped 9 spots, from #12 => #21 vs Kenpom from #21 => #37.

Eastern Illinois remains at #349 in this model even after the win, which is the same as kenpom

 

[fluoxetine]

Interestingly after being the highest on Rutgers compared to other models early in the season, kenpom and Bart have caught up. Now I have Rutgers #25 vs #24/#26

 

[fluoxetine]

Thru 12/23 - Predictive

1. #8 Purdue (12-0)
2. #10 Indiana (10-3)
3. #16 Illinois (8-4)
4. #19 Rutgers (8-4)
5. #21 Iowa (8-4)
6. #22 Ohio St. (8-3)
7. #31 Maryland (9-3)
8. #32 Northwestern (9-2)
9. #37 Wisconsin (9-2)
10. #38 Penn St. (9-3)
11. #49 Michigan St. (8-4)
12. #57 Michigan (7-4)
13. #111 Nebraska (7-6)
14. #204 Minnesota (6-6)

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Thru 12/23 - Predictive

1. #8 Purdue (12-0)
2. #10 Indiana (10-3)
3. #16 Illinois (8-4)
4. #19 Rutgers (8-4)
5. #21 Iowa (8-4)
6. #22 Ohio St. (8-3)
7. #31 Maryland (9-3)
8. #32 Northwestern (9-2)
9. #37 Wisconsin (9-2)
10. #38 Penn St. (9-3)
11. #49 Michigan St. (8-4)
12. #57 Michigan (7-4)
13. #111 Nebraska (7-6)
14. #204 Minnesota (6-6)

It's so much fun to not be near the bottom of this list...

 

[ScarletDave]

Thru 12/23 - Predictive

1. #8 Purdue (12-0)
2. #10 Indiana (10-3)
3. #16 Illinois (8-4)
4. #19 Rutgers (8-4)
5. #21 Iowa (8-4)
6. #22 Ohio St. (8-3)
7. #31 Maryland (9-3)
8. #32 Northwestern (9-2)
9. #37 Wisconsin (9-2)
10. #38 Penn St. (9-3)
11. #49 Michigan St. (8-4)
12. #57 Michigan (7-4)
13. #111 Nebraska (7-6)
14. #204 Minnesota (6-6)

How tough the Big Ten is. Penn State #38 nationally. 10th of 14 in B1G

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

This model is/was higher on Iowa than others. They've dropped 9 spots, from #12 => #21 vs Kenpom from #21 => #37.

Eastern Illinois remains at #349 in this model even after the win, which is the same as kenpom

You don’t show your breakdown split offense / defense the way Kenpom does. What’s baffling to me is that even with that huge drop down to 37, KenPom’s model thinks Iowa’s defense (ranks it 102) is better than Rutgers offense (ranks it 130).

Don’t get me wrong - our offense isn’t great or anything, but it’s not like we’ve shown signs of not being able to score against cupcakes - we’re blowing them out. Meanwhile Iowa is letting Eastern Illinois drop 92 points on them and several other bad teams have put up 70+.

I know it’s not apples to apples - but still…

 

[fluoxetine]

12/25/2022 - WIN/LOSS ONLY

Top 25
#1 Kansas (11-1)
#2 Purdue (12-0)
#3 Gonzaga (10-3)
#4 Connecticut (13-0)
#5 Arizona (12-1)
#6 Baylor (9-2)
#7 Houston (12-1)
#8 Tennessee (10-2)
#9 Wisconsin (9-2)
#10 UCLA (11-2)
#11 Alabama (10-2)
#12 Duke (10-3)
#13 Arkansas (11-1)
#14 Texas (10-1)
#15 Auburn (10-2)
#16 Miami FL (12-1)
#17 Virginia (8-2)
#18 North Carolina (9-4)
#19 Providence (10-3)
#20 Texas Tech (9-2)
#21 Kentucky (8-3)
#22 LSU (11-1)
#23 USC (10-3)
#24 Iowa St (9-2)
#25 San Diego St (8-3)

Big Ten
1. #2 Purdue (12-0)
2. #9 Wisconsin (9-2)
3. #26 Michigan St (8-4)
4. #29 Illinois (8-4)
5. #32 Indiana (10-3)
6. #34 Ohio St (8-3)
7. #41 Maryland (9-3)
8. #45 Michigan (7-4)
9. #50 Iowa (8-4)
10. #51 Penn St (9-3)
11. #54 Northwestern (9-2)
12. #65 Rutgers (8-4)
13. #99 Nebraska (7-6)
14. #130 Minnesota (6-6)

OOC
#357 Columbia (3-9)
#319 Sacred Heart (5-8)
#152 MA Lowell (10-2)
#149 Temple (6-7)
#253 Rider (4-5)
#355 Central Conn (2-12)
#16 Miami FL (12-1)
#52 Seton Hall (6-6)
#48 Wake Forest (9-4)
#278 Bucknell (6-6)
#271 Coppin St (5-10)

 

[bitnez]

I am not familiar with this rating system but it seems to reward teams for losing close games. Michigan hasn’t beaten anyone yet this year, but has some good losses. They’re somehow 20 spots above us.

 

[fluoxetine]

12/25/2022 - PREDICTIVE

Top 25
#1 Houston (12-1)
#2 Tennessee (10-2)
#3 Connecticut (13-0)
#4 UCLA (11-2)
#5 Gonzaga (10-3)
#6 Kansas (11-1)
#7 Arizona (12-1)
#8 Purdue (12-0)
#9 Texas (10-1)
#10 Indiana (10-3)
#11 Baylor (9-2)
#12 Saint Mary's (10-4)
#13 Kentucky (8-3)
#14 Texas Tech (9-2)
#15 Auburn (10-2)
#16 Illinois (8-4)
#17 Alabama (10-2)
#18 Duke (10-3)
#19 Rutgers (8-4)
#20 Arkansas (11-1)
#21 Iowa (8-4)
#22 Ohio St. (8-3)
#23 Virginia (8-2)
#24 North Carolina (9-4)
#25 Xavier (10-3)

Big Ten
1. #8 Purdue (12-0)
2. #10 Indiana (10-3)
3. #16 Illinois (8-4)
4. #19 Rutgers (8-4)
5. #21 Iowa (8-4)
6. #22 Ohio St. (8-3)
7. #31 Maryland (9-3)
8. #32 Northwestern (9-2)
9. #37 Wisconsin (9-2)
10. #38 Penn St. (9-3)
11. #49 Michigan St. (8-4)
12. #57 Michigan (7-4)
13. #111 Nebraska (7-6)
14. #202 Minnesota (6-6)

OOC
#340 Columbia (3-9)
#310 Sacred Heart (5-8)
#112 UMass Lowell (10-2)
#130 Temple (6-7)
#237 Rider (4-5)
#342 Central Connecticut (2-12)
#65 Miami FL (12-1)
#52 Seton Hall (6-6)
#90 Wake Forest (9-4)
#231 Bucknell (6-6)
#295 Coppin St. (5-10)

 

[fluoxetine]

I am not familiar with this rating system but it seems to reward teams for losing close games. Michigan hasn’t beaten anyone yet this year, but has some good losses. They’re somehow 20 spots above us.

The win/loss only one is sort of a novelty more than anything else. It doesn't look at MOV at all.

 

[Scangg]

12/25/2022 - PREDICTIVE

Top 25
#1 Houston (12-1)
#2 Tennessee (10-2)
#3 Connecticut (13-0)
#4 UCLA (11-2)
#5 Gonzaga (10-3)
#6 Kansas (11-1)
#7 Arizona (12-1)
#8 Purdue (12-0)
#9 Texas (10-1)
#10 Indiana (10-3)
#11 Baylor (9-2)
#12 Saint Mary's (10-4)
#13 Kentucky (8-3)
#14 Texas Tech (9-2)
#15 Auburn (10-2)
#16 Illinois (8-4)
#17 Alabama (10-2)
#18 Duke (10-3)
#19 Rutgers (8-4)
#20 Arkansas (11-1)
#21 Iowa (8-4)
#22 Ohio St. (8-3)
#23 Virginia (8-2)
#24 North Carolina (9-4)
#25 Xavier (10-3)

Big Ten
1. #8 Purdue (12-0)
2. #10 Indiana (10-3)
3. #16 Illinois (8-4)
4. #19 Rutgers (8-4)
5. #21 Iowa (8-4)
6. #22 Ohio St. (8-3)
7. #31 Maryland (9-3)
8. #32 Northwestern (9-2)
9. #37 Wisconsin (9-2)
10. #38 Penn St. (9-3)
11. #49 Michigan St. (8-4)
12. #57 Michigan (7-4)
13. #111 Nebraska (7-6)
14. #202 Minnesota (6-6)

OOC
#340 Columbia (3-9)
#310 Sacred Heart (5-8)
#112 UMass Lowell (10-2)
#130 Temple (6-7)
#237 Rider (4-5)
#342 Central Connecticut (2-12)
#65 Miami FL (12-1)
#52 Seton Hall (6-6)
#90 Wake Forest (9-4)
#231 Bucknell (6-6)
#295 Coppin St. (5-10)

SHU 52 at 6-6
Miami 65 at 12-1

 

[bitnez]

The win/loss only one is sort of a novelty more than anything else. It doesn't look at MOV at all.

Got it. I guess there’s always outliers like Michigan in every system. The season is 2 months old, they lost to every decent team they’ve played, although they have a couple road wins against the worst P5 teams in the country.

 

[fluoxetine]

Comparison

Team - Predictive / Kenpom / Bart / NET / WL Only

Purdue - #8 / #7 / #8 / #4 / #2
Indiana - #10 / #19 / #29 / #21 / #32
Illinois - #16 / #31 / #38 / #44 / #29
Rutgers - #19 / #23 / #19 / #29 / #65
Iowa - #21 / #37 / #31 / #58 / #50
Ohio St. - #22 / #15 / #21 / #15 / #34
Maryland - #31 / #22 / #28 / #23 / #41
Northwestern - #32 / #45 / #54 / #39 / #54
Wisconsin - #37 / #35 / #40 / #50 / #9
Penn St. - #38 / #34 / #35 / #49 / #51
Michigan St. - #49 / #44 / #61 / #68 / #26
Michigan - #57 / #48 / #68 / #80 / #45
Nebraska - #111 / #89 / #96 / #76 / #99
Minnesota - #202 / #197 / #219 / #249 / #130

 

[fluoxetine]

Got it. I guess there’s always outliers like Michigan in every system. The season is 2 months old, they lost to every decent team they’ve played, although they have a couple road wins against the worst P5 teams in the country.

Michigan at 45 isn't really that much of an outlier; they are #48 in kenpom. The real outlier is Rutgers being at #65 in that system.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Michigan at 45 isn't really that much of an outlier; they are #48 in kenpom. The real outlier is Rutgers being at #65 in that system.

They actually seem pretty similar - consistent correlation to RPI (with slight correction). From your original description of the metric, that seems like exactly what was intended - no?

 

[fluoxetine]

Thru 12/30 - Predictive

1. #8 Purdue (13-0)
2. #11 Indiana (10-3)
3. #15 Rutgers (9-4)
4. #16 Ohio St. (9-3)
5. #19 Illinois (9-4)
6. #26 Iowa (8-5)
7. #32 Maryland (10-3)
8. #36 Northwestern (10-2)
9. #44 Wisconsin (10-2)
10. #45 Michigan St. (9-4)
11. #52 Penn St. (10-3)
12. #72 Michigan (7-5)
13. #104 Nebraska (8-6)
14. #202 Minnesota (6-6)

 

[fluoxetine]

01/01/2023 - WIN/LOSS ONLY

Top 25
#1 Kansas (12-1)
#2 Purdue (13-0)
#3 Arizona (13-1)
#4 Gonzaga (11-3)
#5 Houston (14-1)
#6 Connecticut (14-1)
#7 Baylor (10-3)
#8 Tennessee (11-2)
#9 UCLA (13-2)
#10 Alabama (11-2)
#11 Wisconsin (10-2)
#12 Texas (12-1)
#13 Duke (11-3)
#14 Miami FL (13-1)
#15 Auburn (11-2)
#16 Arkansas (11-2)
#17 Providence (12-3)
#18 Virginia (10-2)
#19 Xavier (12-3)
#20 LSU (12-1)
#21 Marquette (11-4)
#22 Iowa St (10-2)
#23 San Diego St (10-3)
#24 Ohio St (10-3)
#25 North Carolina (9-5)

Big Ten
1. #2 Purdue (13-0)
2. #11 Wisconsin (10-2)
3. #24 Ohio St (10-3)
4. #26 Illinois (9-4)
5. #28 Michigan St (9-4)
6. #30 Indiana (10-3)
7. #43 Maryland (10-4)
8. #45 Penn St (11-3)
9. #54 Iowa (8-6)
10. #57 Michigan (8-5)
11. #59 Rutgers (9-4)
12. #61 Northwestern (10-3)
13. #91 Nebraska (8-6)
14. #142 Minnesota (6-6)

OOC
#346 Columbia (4-10)
#317 Sacred Heart (6-9)
#154 MA Lowell (11-2)
#123 Temple (8-7)
#248 Rider (5-6)
#355 Central Conn (3-13)
#14 Miami FL (13-1)
#49 Seton Hall (7-7)
#39 Wake Forest (10-4)
#294 Bucknell (6-7)
#280 Coppin St (5-12)

 

[fluoxetine]

01/01/2023 - PREDICTIVE

Top 25
#1 Houston (14-1)
#2 Tennessee (11-2)
#3 Connecticut (14-1)
#4 UCLA (13-2)
#5 Gonzaga (11-3)
#6 Arizona (13-1)
#7 Kansas (12-1)
#8 Purdue (13-0)
#9 Texas (12-1)
#10 Indiana (10-3)
#11 Saint Mary's (12-4)
#12 Baylor (10-3)
#13 Ohio St. (10-3)
#14 Texas Tech (10-3)
#15 Rutgers (9-4)
#16 Alabama (11-2)
#17 Virginia (10-2)
#18 Kentucky (9-4)
#19 Duke (11-3)
#20 Illinois (9-4)
#21 Auburn (11-2)
#22 Arkansas (11-2)
#23 Xavier (12-3)
#24 North Carolina (9-5)
#25 Oklahoma St. (8-5)

Big Ten
1. #8 Purdue (13-0)
2. #10 Indiana (10-3)
3. #13 Ohio St. (10-3)
4. #15 Rutgers (9-4)
5. #20 Illinois (9-4)
6. #26 Iowa (8-6)
7. #39 Maryland (10-4)
8. #44 Northwestern (10-3)
9. #46 Wisconsin (10-2)
10. #47 Michigan St. (9-4)
11. #52 Penn St. (11-3)
12. #55 Michigan (8-5)
13. #103 Nebraska (8-6)
14. #207 Minnesota (6-6)

OOC
#337 Columbia (4-10)
#307 Sacred Heart (6-9)
#118 UMass Lowell (11-2)
#125 Temple (8-7)
#228 Rider (5-6)
#341 Central Connecticut (3-13)
#59 Miami FL (13-1)
#48 Seton Hall (7-7)
#84 Wake Forest (10-4)
#232 Bucknell (6-7)
#304 Coppin St. (5-12)

 

[motorb54]

Thank you for doing all this work.
Interesting.

 

[fluoxetine]

Comparison

Team - Predictive / Kenpom / Bart / NET / WL Only

Purdue - #8 / #6 / #8 / #4 / #2
Indiana - #10 / #19 / #29 / #19 / #30
Ohio St. - #13 / #12 / #10 / #10 / #24
Rutgers - #15 / #18 / #17 / #20 / #59
Illinois - #20 / #28 / #36 / #39 / #26
Iowa - #26 / #50 / #58 / #65 / #54
Maryland - #39 / #37 / #60 / #51 / #43
Northwestern - #44 / #63 / #71 / #64 / #61
Wisconsin - #46 / #42 / #50 / #47 / #11
Michigan St. - #47 / #46 / #65 / #68 / #28
Penn St. - #52 / #44 / #43 / #59 / #45
Michigan - #55 / #47 / #62 / #82 / #57
Nebraska - #103 / #82 / #81 / #77 / #91
Minnesota - #207 / #199 / #214 / #243 / #142

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Comparison

Team - Predictive / Kenpom / Bart / NET / WL Only

Purdue - #8 / #6 / #8 / #4 / #2
Indiana - #10 / #19 / #29 / #19 / #30
Ohio St. - #13 / #12 / #10 / #10 / #24
Rutgers - #15 / #18 / #17 / #20 / #59
Illinois - #20 / #28 / #36 / #39 / #26
Iowa - #26 / #50 / #58 / #65 / #54
Maryland - #39 / #37 / #60 / #51 / #43
Northwestern - #44 / #63 / #71 / #64 / #61
Wisconsin - #46 / #42 / #50 / #47 / #11
Michigan St. - #47 / #46 / #65 / #68 / #28
Penn St. - #52 / #44 / #43 / #59 / #45
Michigan - #55 / #47 / #62 / #82 / #57
Nebraska - #103 / #82 / #81 / #77 / #91
Minnesota - #207 / #199 / #214 / #243 / #142

It would be interesting to see RPI on there too as in theory, if Kenpom and the efficiency guys are “right” the pure results metrics should converge with the potential metrics over time. Seems like your base model is starting to do this as we moved up to 59.

 

[fluoxetine]

It would be interesting to see RPI on there too as in theory, if Kenpom and the efficiency guys are “right” the pure results metrics should converge with the potential metrics over time. Seems like your base model is starting to do this as we moved up to 59.

I’ll see if I can find a good RPI source. You are correct in theory though it might not converge to RPI exactly because RPI has some quirks that make it a pretty imperfect measure of results. But yes the predictive and win/loss models should converge as they get more data

 

[fluoxetine]

Thru 01/02 - Predictive

1. #8 Purdue (13-1)
2. #10 Indiana (10-3)
3. #13 Ohio St. (10-3)
4. #14 Rutgers (10-4)
5. #20 Illinois (9-4)
6. #26 Iowa (8-6)
7. #39 Maryland (10-4)
8. #42 Northwestern (10-3)
9. #46 Wisconsin (10-2)
10. #47 Michigan St. (9-4)
11. #52 Penn St. (11-3)
12. #56 Michigan (8-5)
13. #103 Nebraska (8-6)
14. #207 Minnesota (6-6)

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I’ll see if I can find a good RPI source. You are correct in theory though it might not converge to RPI exactly because RPI has some quirks that make it a pretty imperfect measure of results. But yes the predictive and win/loss models should converge as they get more data

Not perfect, but underrated as a binary tool for field selection (not seeding). Rutgers moved up 28 spots to 49 with the Purdue win. Well within the selection parameter for a major conference team now even under the old system.

 

[BillyC80]

Thru 01/02 - Predictive

1. #8 Purdue (13-1)
2. #10 Indiana (10-3)
3. #13 Ohio St. (10-3)
4. #14 Rutgers (10-4)
5. #20 Illinois (9-4)
6. #26 Iowa (8-6)
7. #39 Maryland (10-4)
8. #42 Northwestern (10-3)
9. #46 Wisconsin (10-2)
10. #47 Michigan St. (9-4)
11. #52 Penn St. (11-3)
12. #56 Michigan (8-5)
13. #103 Nebraska (8-6)
14. #207 Minnesota (6-6)

Thanks for these updates. Amazing that we essentially beat all 3 teams above us in these B1G rankings, with two of those being on the road. This Rutgers team is GOOD.