Trump has morphed into W on steroids, when we needed Ross Perot

TarHeelEer

Redshirt
Dec 15, 2002
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I'm on the fence. Projections 10 years out is ridiculous. Solid projections should be on a 2 year plan/projection at most. We have no idea what the economy will do.

However, seeing how things go over 10 years if the economy remains stable is a good projection to keep in mind, especially in terms of debt load. We have a decent idea when things will pop. The August bond sale will speed things up as the bond yield increases.
 

TarHeelEer

Redshirt
Dec 15, 2002
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It’s time to rewrite the textbooks, gentlemen. We’re playing from a new guidebook. Govt finances aren’t the same as personal finances. Our strength is in our purchasing power.


It’s time to learn some new concepts.
Lost me in the first paragraph. Yes, they can print money and make our dollar worthless. That's what will likely happen instead of default when we can't keep up any longer, and end up in stagflation. We aren't immune to people wanting their money to be worth something.
 

atlkvb

All-Conference
Jul 9, 2004
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"I’ve also seen claims the bill increases the deficit. This lie is based on a CBO accounting gimmick. Income tax rates from the 2017 tax cut are set to expire in September. They were always planned to be permanent. CBO says maintaining current rates adds to the deficit, but by definition leaving these income tax rates unchanged cannot add one penny to the deficit. The bill’s spending cuts REDUCE the deficit against the current law baseline, which is the only correct baseline to use."

This is word play and not true. When Trump and MAGA passed the tax cuts, they were set to expire this year. They were not permanent. If they intended them to be permanent, they would've made them permanent then, as they have this time. The baseline takes into consideration what they passed previously. To add them back now does indeed raise the deficit/debt.

"Reconciliation bills are not spending bills. They establish a budget, or propose a budget, but the actual spending must be established in a bill that starts in the House. A separate bill."

Yes, Republicans are still using reconciliation bills. I know this. No, the CBO is not considering parts of spending outside of reconciliation. It's all about the tax cuts. Not only did Trump continue the tax cuts from prior, but now, has added nearly $400 billion of additional cuts without spending cuts to match.

The 2 "gimmicks" from the CBO that Trump is complaining about are the growth rate and including the tax cut extensions. Both are valid, especially considering we're probably going into a recession due to tariffs in Q3/Q4.
CBO does not score tax cuts dynamically. They score the loss of revenue, not the increase. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what you believe is driving the increase in deficits on this bill. It's mandatory spending, not discretionary spending! Again, this is not a spending bill. It's an authorization bill. Congress will designate, and appropriate the actual spending once the authorizations pass!

Go back and look at CBO scoring on all the previous tax cut legislation passed into Law. You will find they have consistently underscored or underestimated the effects that tax cuts have on revenue because they do not account for how behavior and markets change once taxes are cut. They don't account for the increased economic activity, and they don't account for the additional revenue. They score it as a loss of revenue, because they simply don't know or understand how people change their behavior when taxes are lowered. Just as they never realize the additional revenues they add from tax increases (which never come, because folks avoid paying them)

If you read that article and still think this is a spending bill, there is nothing more I can say to you.
 

TarHeelEer

Redshirt
Dec 15, 2002
89,281
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CBO does not score tax cuts dynamically. They score the loss of revenue, not the increase. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what you believe is driving the increase in deficits on this bill. It's mandatory spending, not discretionary spending! Again, this is not a spending bill. It's an authorization bill. Congress will designate, and appropriate the actual spending once the authorizations pass!
Again, you're complaining about the growth rate. Asked and answered.


Go back and look at CBO scoring on all the previous tax cut legislation passed into Law. You will find they have consistently underscored or underestimated the effects that tax cuts have on revenue because they do not account for how behavior and markets change once taxes are cut. They don't account for the increased economic activity, and they don't account for the additional revenue. They score it as a loss of revenue, because they simply don't know or understand how people change their behavior when taxes are lowered. Just as they never realize the additional revenues they add from tax increases (which never come, because folks avoid paying them)
Not true. I showed you projections from 1 year out previously. Prove it.
If you read that article and still think this is a spending bill, there is nothing more I can say to you.
You are responding to my response to reading your blessed article.
 

atlkvb

All-Conference
Jul 9, 2004
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Again, you're complaining about the growth rate. Asked and answered.



Not true. I showed you projections from 1 year out previously. Prove it.

You are responding to my response to reading your blessed article.
My very wise late Grandfather I sometimes like to mention on here from time to time because he taught me many things that have stood the test of time and proven to be true.

One of the things he warned me about was talking to grown folks who have their minds made up, and the uselessness of trying to talk them out of it.

"Son" he'd say to me..." when you throws eggs up against a wall, don't 'spect 'dem eggs 'ta break 'dat wall!" (Grandpa had this magnificent Alabama Southern drawl that's difficult to emulate typing text)

I think you understand.
 
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TarHeelEer

Redshirt
Dec 15, 2002
89,281
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My very wise late Grandfather who I mention on here from time to time because he taught me many things that have stood the test of time and proven to be true.

One of the things he warned me about talking to grown folks who have their minds made up, and the uselessness of trying to talk them out of it.

"Son" he'd say to me..." when you throws eggs up against a wall, don't expect them eggs to break 'dat wall!" (Grandpa had this magnificent Alabama Southern drawl that's difficult to emulate typing text)

I think you understand.
I do.

 

DvlDog4WVU

All-Conference
Feb 2, 2008
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Name 60 Senators that will vote for that.
There aren’t that will vote for it out of the gate. Thats a fact. Regardless, the house should pass their budget. They should put it on the senate. The Republicans in the senate should push the same bill and allow the debt ceiling to come and the Govt to be shutdown. It will be a Dem shutdown. Hammer the **** out of them.
 

TarHeelEer

Redshirt
Dec 15, 2002
89,281
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There aren’t that will vote for it out of the gate. Thats a fact. Regardless, the house should pass their budget. They should put it on the senate. The Republicans in the senate should push the same bill and allow the debt ceiling to come and the Govt to be shutdown. It will be a Dem shutdown. Hammer the **** out of them.
Trump gets to pick essential personnel in a shutdown. That was Democrats biggest fear. Use it.
 

Brushy Bill

Heisman
Mar 31, 2009
50,799
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There aren’t that will vote for it out of the gate. Thats a fact. Regardless, the house should pass their budget. They should put it on the senate. The Republicans in the senate should push the same bill and allow the debt ceiling to come and the Govt to be shutdown. It will be a Dem shutdown. Hammer the **** out of them.
Cool, and what about when the US actually defaults?
 

TarHeelEer

Redshirt
Dec 15, 2002
89,281
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Cool, and what about when the US actually defaults?
We can just print money, we'll never default. That's why the government stays open even during a shutdown.

But the solution is also a big part of the problem.

The tax rates aren't what define our "taxes". The overall spending does. Whatever they don't recoup in taxes is printed.
 

TarHeelEer

Redshirt
Dec 15, 2002
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The tax rates are vote buying schemes. Class warfare.... government control and economic behavior modification.
To a degree. But personal income tax is 1/3 of taxes collected for what is necessary. Printing of money, driving inflation higher, is nearly 50% now. Everyone gets taxed at their consumption rates, so among the hardest hit are low income, and those attempting to buy their first home. As servicing the debt becomes a larger portion of the budget, personal income tax becomes less of a driver than inflation.
 

atlkvb

All-Conference
Jul 9, 2004
79,578
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To a degree. But personal income tax is 1/3 of taxes collected for what is necessary. Printing of money, driving inflation higher, is nearly 50% now. Everyone gets taxed at their consumption rates, so among the hardest hit are low income, and those attempting to buy their first home. As servicing the debt becomes a larger portion of the budget, personal income tax becomes less of a driver than inflation.
You do realize a lot of that debt comes from borrowing to pay for food, clothing, shelter, and medical care for illegal aliens? Almost every area of our Federal spending gets additional annual funding EXCEPT border enforcement and ICE. That particular area of the budget runs on a shoestring, rarely ever gets the required funding necessary to control our open border or enforce our immigration Laws...and the BBB fully funds ICE as well as increases funds for enforcement with more border patrols guards, deportations, equipment and finishes the wall!