Two Big Games In Region 1A This Week.......

[NNDman]

1. King George at W&L. This will be the final nondistrict test for the Eagles. Should be a sell out in Montross in a renewal of an old NND rivalry. W&L wins and they control their destiny as far as the top seed the region goes.
2. Buckingham at Northumberland. The Indians haven't faced much competition thus far, but have dominated their opposition. This is a major jump up the competition ladder for the team from Claraville (although most everyone still says its Heathsville; the school must get its mail from the Heathsville Post Office!!!)

 

[NNDman]

I knew the W&L-KG series was halted after KG stomped them in 2016, but I went to my friend Rick Baker's site and discovered those teams played annually from 1961-2016.

 

[uvacavs1]

1. King George at W&L. This will be the final nondistrict test for the Eagles. Should be a sell out in Montross in a renewal of an old NND rivalry. W&L wins and they control their destiny as far as the top seed the region goes.
2. Buckingham at Northumberland. The Indians haven't faced much competition thus far, but have dominated their opposition. This is a major jump up the competition ladder for the team from Claraville (although most everyone still says its Heathsville; the school must get its mail from the Heathsville Post Office!!!)

Yes, some huge games in Region A. Best of luck to the Eagles even though a W against a 4A school would let them control their destiny as NNDman stated.

As for 2A Buckingham coming to Northumberland, this may be the 1st meeting between the two schools unlike the old rivalry between W&L & KG.

The Colonial Beach and West Point game looks be intriguing as well.

 

[uvacavs1]

Buckingham (3-1) will be heavily favored over NHS as they are rolling this year. Good for them. They should be 4-0 as they lost in controversy to 3A power Goochland in OT!

Buckingham whipped 2A super power Appomattox (like 3 2A state titles in just the last 4 years!). Buckingham also whipped 2A Bluestone 45-6 and old Group A power Central Lunenburg 35-6.

NHS is 4-0 but this will be a true test indeed. Can the Indians hang? Is the D ready? Can QB Adams and his many weapons find the pay dirt? Will the Indians special teams be ready? Can NHS limit the penalties and turnovers?

Does anyone think NHS has a shot? From what I have read on here, it looks not.

We shall see...

 

[1a_Analyst]

Also, WP Vs CB. Will WP show that they are improving every week or will they just be an average region A team this year. I don’t think NHS has a shot Buckingham is looking strong this year. I expect W&L to not lose another regular season game this year.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

@uvacavs1, let’s just say the teams you listed other than Goochland are not playing stellar so far. Appo, Bluestone and Central have like 4 wins amongst them I think. Buckingham is good for sure based off of the Goochland game so we will see. If Adams and crew are what we think they are then they will put points on the board. Can the defense hold up is something only you guys can answer? I haven’t read too much about that, just about the offense. Should be a good one.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

As to the other game, W&L is a very good team so this should be an interesting game. Not really sure what King George brings but W&L may roll through the rest of the season unscathed. If so I have them finishing around 250pts or 25.00 which will be in a good position to host throughout.

 

[NND Sports Fan]

Some Region 1A teams have the week off. Rapp, Essex, K&Q and Mathews. the loser of that CB-WP game could well be looking at being on the road for all the playoffs.

 

[Jdavis54]

Northumberland gave up 22 points on average to 4 teams who are a combined 2-16. I said from the get-go the defense is Northumberland's down fall. Not bashing them but the 4 teams they have played, average over 40 points allowed a game. I'm a big Northumberland supporter but I believe Buckingham rolls past my indians

 

[uvacavs1]

Some Region 1A teams have the week off. Rapp, Essex, K&Q and Mathews. the loser of that CB-WP game could well be looking at being on the road for all the playoffs.

Some good games for those teams to check out. I would expect to see a few Essex and RAPP people at NHS.

Essex’s next game is against Northumberland and RAPP, well, they already know about W&L.

 

[uvacavs1]

Northumberland gave up 22 points on average to 4 teams who are a combined 2-16. I said from the get-go the defense is Northumberland's down fall. Not bashing them but the 4 teams they have played, average over 40 points allowed a game. I'm a big Northumberland supporter but I believe Buckingham rolls past my indians

It is gonna be a tough one for the Indians....will the NHS D be able make a stand?

Can Coach Lewis, staff, and his Northumberland boys make a Big statement.....?

Or will Buckingham roll the Indians at home like most expect?

I expect a good one....light it up.

 

[MGF]

Also, WP Vs CB. Will WP show that they are improving every week or will they just be an average region A team this year. I don’t think NHS has a shot Buckingham is looking strong this year. I expect W&L to not lose another regular season game this year.

WP would have to beat CB to show improvement. It is hard to determine if WP is improving or not when their only wins are against 3 teams that have a combined W-L record of 1-9-1 and a combined PF-PA of 147-517. The only two good teams WP has played (W&L 3-0 and Rapp 4-1) outscored WP 51-10. WP needs to have a penalty-free game to have a chance. WP has averaged around 9 penalties and 70 yards in penalites per game.

 

[Gunz41!]

As to the other game, W&L is a very good team so this should be an interesting game. Not really sure what King George brings but W&L may roll through the rest of the season unscathed. If so I have them finishing around 250pts or 25.00 which will be in a good position to host throughout.

I could be wrong, but you may want to look at your projected points for them.

Especially with having a loss, I would be surprised if a 1a team could reach that number

I looked back at the last few years and only top 2 teams in 2a (undefeated or 1 loss to undefeated) have reached that number.

 

[Gladiatorfencepatrol]

I could be wrong, but you may want to look at your projected points for them.

Especially with having a loss, I would be surprised if a 1a team could reach that number

I looked back at the last few years and only top 2 teams in 2a (undefeated or 1 loss to undefeated) have reached that number.

I dont see anyway they could outpoint Riverheads, especially since they lost to them and the amount of 2A and 3A teams Riverheads plays of course thats providing Riverheads doesnt lose a couple games.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

I may have their projected riders pretty high. I figured them at like 146 in power points with the loss. If their opponents they defeat combine for 50 wins. That’s 5 wins on average from their opponents which is doable. So ballpark of 250 is what I should have said.

 

[Gunz41!]

I may have their projected riders pretty high. I figured them at like 146 in power points with the loss. If their opponents they defeat combine for 50 wins. That’s 5 wins on average from their opponents which is doable. So ballpark of 250 is what I should have said.

Now your going to make me have to look since that would really surprise me haha. I'll give a few benefit of doubt.

Riverheads: 4/9 or 4/10
West Point: 16/12
Rappahannock: 16/16
King William: 18/14
King George: 22/10
Lancaster: 16/2
Northumberland: 16/12
Rappahannock: 16/16
Essex: 16/14
Colonial Beach: 16/6

Total: 270

So I was short changing them. I apologize, I was wrong. If this happens then sorry to your Gladiators I doubt you have a chance to out point them

 

[uvacavs1]

In some exciting news for NHS and for Northern Neck sports-

Northumberland and Mason Adams will be etched in the VHSL football record book for all classes.

Adams and his 7 TD passes in one game will tie him for 3rd place in Virginia football history.

The record is 9 in a game held by a QB from Newport News from back in 1966! (heck, back in my day we only threw 2 passes a game and that was usually in the flats ha!)

2nd place is 8 passes in a game - Miller from Gretna and McNair from East Rock a few years ago.

3rd place is 7 TD passes in a game. Last time that was done was in 2010 by Allen Simon from Denbigh v Gloucester.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Now you are onboard with me @Gunz41. I have it projected for most of region A based off of my personal projected win totals. They have more available points than Essex so head to head will be a key for them. I see Riverheads right around that number as well. It generally takes 25.00 to host the A/B semi.

 

[Gunz41!]

Now you are onboard with me @Gunz41. I have it projected for most of region A based off of my personal projected win totals. They have more available points than Essex so head to head will be a key for them. I see Riverheads right around that number as well. It generally takes 25.00 to host the A/B semi.

It really helps them (if they get to that 270 mark) because of the competition they played up. KG is decent in 4a, whereas Skyline won't help as much. If you have W&L winning out, and Riverheads winning out, I doubt you can catch them. The win over a good King William was HUGE

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Oh I know. It’s really interesting this year when you wade off into the numbers and possibilities.

 

[Gladiatorfencepatrol]

I may have their projected riders pretty high. I figured them at like 146 in power points with the loss. If their opponents they defeat combine for 50 wins. That’s 5 wins on average from their opponents which is doable. So ballpark of 250 is what I should have said.

No way they win out. Too many teams left on their schedule that are toss-up games IMO.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Here is another way to look at it @Gladiatorfencepatrol, if W&L loses a game to either Rapp or Essex they will end at 23.5 based off of their opponents combined win total being 64. With several common opponents, if Essex goes 9-1 with their only loss to KW then they finish at 24.5 with a opponents win total of 51 (Charles City and Surry hurt here). An undefeated Riverheads would be around 28.6, with a loss to Draft the avg drops to 26.5 and that's with an opponents win total of 52. To add even more to this confusion, if Rapp goes on to only lose to W&L in their first matchup, they end at around 26.0.

So now that I have anyone that has read this far pissed off with the data, it really is about ridders so every opponent needs to win their games to get that multiplier up.

Just based off of classification points (ie, more 2A and 3A teams) Riverheads undefeated will sit at 182 points while the next closest in region A is W&L and Rapp with 166. Both of them already have a loss so the number drops to 150 and 148 respectfully if they win out.

I know its a ton of information and probably more rambling than coherent but the long and short is that Riverheads will likely need to win out to host should they make the state semifinals. The shining light in all of this is that last year was the only year the Gladiators have hosted that game so travel is not foreign to the fans or most players.

 

[trutiger16]

Here is another way to look at it @Gladiatorfencepatrol, if W&L loses a game to either Rapp or Essex they will end at 23.5 based off of their opponents combined win total being 64. With several common opponents, if Essex goes 9-1 with their only loss to KW then they finish at 24.5 with a opponents win total of 51 (Charles City and Surry hurt here). An undefeated Riverheads would be around 28.6, with a loss to Draft the avg drops to 26.5 and that's with an opponents win total of 52. To add even more to this confusion, if Rapp goes on to only lose to W&L in their first matchup, they end at around 26.0.

So now that I have anyone that has read this far pissed off with the data, it really is about ridders so every opponent needs to win their games to get that multiplier up.

Just based off of classification points (ie, more 2A and 3A teams) Riverheads undefeated will sit at 182 points while the next closest in region A is W&L and Rapp with 166. Both of them already have a loss so the number drops to 150 and 148 respectfully if they win out.

I know its a ton of information and probably more rambling than coherent but the long and short is that Riverheads will likely need to win out to host should they make the state semifinals. The shining light in all of this is that last year was the only year the Gladiators have hosted that game so travel is not foreign to the fans or most players.

Guys with Sussex win over 3a Southampton and 2 more winnable games vs 3a oponnets , Sussex if win out will have a say in Region B playoffs if we can run the table

 

[Baseball215]

No way they win out. Too many teams left on their schedule that are toss-up games IMO.

I don’t believe they win out either

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

@trutiger16, can you give me what you think the projected win totals for your opponents will be please?

I have them at 23.2 based off of my projections. Windsor, Franklin, Brunswick and Surry at 3 wins each in my thinking kills them on riders. If the win totals go up for those teams, then the average will go up accordingly. I am not saying its not possible, I just don't have a lot of wins this year out of the teams Sussex will face. On a side note I only have two 3A teams and three 2A teams with five 1A teams on the schedule for your Tigers. What am I missing?

 

[Baseball215]

@trutiger16, can you give me what you think the projected win totals for your opponents will be please?

I have them at 23.2 based off of my projections. Windsor, Franklin, Brunswick and Surry at 3 wins each in my thinking kills them on riders. If the win totals go up for those teams, then the average will go up accordingly. I am not saying its not possible, I just don't have a lot of wins this year out of the teams Sussex will face. On a side note I only have two 3A teams and three 2A teams with five 1A teams on the schedule for your Tigers. What am I missing?

When you get to district play you should get two rider points regardless of who wins so that should be settled to a degree correct

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

I don't think so, there is the classification offset at 2 points for every jump in class. My understanding is that district opponent or not riders are 2 for every win by a defeated opponent and 1 for every win by a victorious opponent. On that note, when do the official VHSL points ratings come out? I thought it was this week so hopefully tomorrow as in years past we will have that to look forward to.

 

[Baseball215]

So the rider points for a 3A or 4A are more I thought you just got two or one. If you beat two district teams and they play each other they are only guaranteed 2 points for that game correct

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Yes, you only get rider/bonus points for wins an opponent has. So if you have the scenario you mentioned you will get 2 pts for one of them but nothing for the defeated team.

Also to my knowledge there are no district points anymore just the jump in classification points. If a team plays down they receive 2 pts for each classification jump to basically get the same points as if they played someone within their class. For 1A that isn't relative since all teams play up, therefore they only receive the classification points as follows:

Winning against
1A= 16 pts
2A= 18 pts
3A= 20 pts
4A= 22 pts
5A= 24 pts
6A= 26 pts

Losing to
1A= 4 pts
2A= 6 pts
3A= 8 pts
4A= 10 pts
5A= 12 pts
6A= 14 pts

The riders or bonus pts are separate in a sense and are awarded as 2 pts for every win a defeated opponent has or 1 pt for every win a victorious opponent has.
As an example if 1A-Riverheads is a six win team and plays 3A-Wilson a four win team:

If Riverheads wins the points are like this:
Riverheads gets 20+8 for 28 points for that game
Wilson gets 4+6 (plus 4 pts for playing down two classes) for 14 points for that game

If Wilson wins the points are like this:
Riverheads gets 8+4 for 12 points for that game
Wilson gets 16+12 (plus 4 pts for playing down two classes) for 32 points for that game

Does this answer your question? And if I messed up explaining this I am sure Gunz41 or Gladiator01 can add some insight as I don't deal with the other classifications and 1A points are about as simple as it gets. What you see is what you get sorta.

 

[1a_Analyst]

WP would have to beat CB to show improvement. It is hard to determine if WP is improving or not when their only wins are against 3 teams that have a combined W-L record of 1-9-1 and a combined PF-PA of 147-517. The only two good teams WP has played (W&L 3-0 and Rapp 4-1) outscored WP 51-10. WP needs to have a penalty-free game to have a chance. WP has averaged around 9 penalties and 70 yards in penalites per game.

What do you expect score to be?

 

[Gunz41!]

Your averages for Riverheads seem a bit high to me. But like before, and I actually admitted it haha, I could be wrong.

Just for the sake of argument and the highest point possible, say Riverheads does go 10-0. You have them about 28.6.

Since I have no clue what they have been at in past, I'll go off of 2a since that in the past has produced a higher Rating because of a larger class schedule.

2018: East Rock (10-0) 28.6
2017: Clarke County (9-1) 27.0 and Central (10-0) 26.4
2016: Stuarts Draft (10-0) 26.8 and Goochland (9-0) 26.67

 

[Baseball215]

So basically if Riverheads wins out and W&L wins out the difference come from non district and how many wins the teams they beat have

 

[Gunz41!]

So basically if Riverheads wins out and W&L wins out the difference come from non district and how many wins the teams they beat have

Yes. W&L will get a huge number of points with still playing Rappahannock again, Essex, and Northumberland and assuming KG wins a few more.

Look at it this way, if King George finishes 5-5, and W&L beats them they will get 32 points. In comparison, that equates to a 7-3 2a team, or an 8-2 1a school.

 

[Baseball215]

Don’t see W&L overtaking Riverheads even if they lose to draft it all depends on opponents record Riverheads end up playing 3. 3A schools we only 2 1A schools on schedule

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

@Gunz41, I do have Riverheads at 28.6 if they are undefeated. That has Draft at 9 wins, W&L at 7 wins and Glenvar at 6 wins. The rest are sprinkled at 4 and 5 so its fairly conservative in my mind. The big thing is 182 classification pts if they win them all. 2-1A, 5 2A, and 3-3A teams. Not sure how they other teams were not higher but unless I do not understand the math, 182 pls 52 times 2pts would put it at 286 pts or 28.6 avg. How many wins the teams those teams played had may be the difference.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

@Baseball215, yes it will come down to how many wins your opponents have. That is why playing better competition is always the way to go. The 'doah generally has a few teams with good records so if you win its a big point day.

 

[Gunz41!]

Don’t see W&L overtaking Riverheads even if they lose to draft it all depends on opponents record Riverheads end up playing 3. 3A schools we only 2 1A schools on schedule

A simple way to look at projections

The non district schedule will be done after week. Since you are using losing to SD to check, just assume then that SD ends 10-0 (for the purpose of looking ahead only)

Buffalo Gap 3-2
Staunton 2-3 most likely
Fort Defiance 3-2 most likely
Stuarts Draft 5-0
Riverheads 5-0
Wilson 1-4

So project that out to
SD- 10-0
RH- 9-1
Staunton 5-5
BG- 5-5
FD- 4-6
WIL- 1-9

If RH loses to 10-0 Riverheads and WL wins out, their losses equal out to a net of +3 for Riverheads.

But WL has this left in district
Lancaster 1-9 assume win this week
Northumberland 6-4
Rappahannock 8-2
Essex 7-3
Colonial Beach 4-6, let's say they beat WP (and that game cancels out for each team)

So for the classification differences, RH gains +14, but for those records, WL has the better district.

With those records, WL would gain around 164 points the rest of way (depending on KG final record, I put 5-5 and Lancaster beating Charles).

RH would gain 152 (depending on Skyline record and I again put 5-5).

So with their points at present:
Washington and Lee: 80 present so 244
Riverheads present: 84 present so 236. And if Riverheads wins out they would have 256.

This isn't counting in their rider points from the 1st 4 games, but as you see if WL wins out then before riders from the completed schedule that Riverheads would be behind if they lose to SD.

And with those riders (guesstimates)
WL: About 23 so 267 or 26.7
RH: About 32 so 268 or 26.8

So every game counts and it could easily go both ways. That is the diff in one non district team either getting an extra win/loss that wasnt accounted for

 

[Gunz41!]

@Gunz41, I do have Riverheads at 28.6 if they are undefeated. That has Draft at 9 wins, W&L at 7 wins and Glenvar at 6 wins. The rest are sprinkled at 4 and 5 so its fairly conservative in my mind. The big thing is 182 classification pts if they win them all. 2-1A, 5 2A, and 3-3A teams. Not sure how they other teams were not higher but unless I do not understand the math, 182 pls 52 times 2pts would put it at 286 pts or 28.6 avg. How many wins the teams those teams played had may be the difference.

I think one part that is different is teams moving up, so like Stonewall vs Fort is 4 points difference, Wilson moving up, some BR teams moving up etc.

I just went through above and had them at 288 if WL wins out since that was the big question

 

[Gunz41!]

I think one part that is different is teams moving up, so like Stonewall vs Fort is 4 points difference, Wilson moving up, some BR teams moving up etc.

I just went through above and had them at 288 if WL wins out since that was the big question

I also just projected out and for SD, IF they go undefeated they would be around 282 or so. And with a loss to Riverheads around 262.

Just so everyone knows, even though everyone already knows that about me. I'm not saying they WILL beat any of the remaining teams, just going by what was being discussed

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Oh I don't want to put the cart before the horse. Every game does count so stay tuned.