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<blockquote data-quote="skygusty_rivals" data-source="post: 129564209" data-attributes="member: 1500287">Curious numbers that raise some questions.&nbsp;&nbsp; If the BIG12 currently has a 62% chance of getting in the playoffs, what are the current odds that the other P5 conferences have of getting in the playoffs?&nbsp; You would expect that if the odds of the BIG12 getting in actually do increase with the suggested changes vis a vis expansion scenarios, then one or more other conferences have to have their chances go down with each iteration of scenario.&nbsp; Or if somehow the odds of the BIG12 getting in have no effect on the other conferences chances, (not likely) then hopefully the Presidents and AD's are at least asking what percentages have been calculated for the other conferences and how they compare.&nbsp; Do we actually end up having a better chance than the ACC and the PAC, or are our odds better but still lagging?&nbsp; I'd like to see how the odds change or don't change for other conferences and where we stack up.&nbsp; If I were deciding, it would be nice to see that the odds improve, but I'd still want to know how we stack up against the competition.So they run 40,000 simulations, 62% of the time the Big12 is in the playoffs right now.Wouldn't we like to know what the numbers are when they run them for the other conferences?&nbsp; It might affect how much faith I placed in their analysis.&nbsp; If we were all of equal stature, then each conference should have an 80% chance (4 slots for 5 conferences)&nbsp; I can't see the odds for the BIG12 going up if there aren't one or more other conferences whose odds go down, and I would want an explanation for how that mechanism worked.&nbsp; Hopefully Gee and the rest will have some statisticians on speed dial to get down in the weeds of the methodology.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="skygusty_rivals, post: 129564209, member: 1500287"] Curious numbers that raise some questions. If the BIG12 currently has a 62% chance of getting in the playoffs, what are the current odds that the other P5 conferences have of getting in the playoffs? You would expect that if the odds of the BIG12 getting in actually do increase with the suggested changes vis a vis expansion scenarios, then one or more other conferences have to have their chances go down with each iteration of scenario. Or if somehow the odds of the BIG12 getting in have no effect on the other conferences chances, (not likely) then hopefully the Presidents and AD's are at least asking what percentages have been calculated for the other conferences and how they compare. Do we actually end up having a better chance than the ACC and the PAC, or are our odds better but still lagging? I'd like to see how the odds change or don't change for other conferences and where we stack up. If I were deciding, it would be nice to see that the odds improve, but I'd still want to know how we stack up against the competition. So they run 40,000 simulations, 62% of the time the Big12 is in the playoffs right now. Wouldn't we like to know what the numbers are when they run them for the other conferences? It might affect how much faith I placed in their analysis. If we were all of equal stature, then each conference should have an 80% chance (4 slots for 5 conferences) I can't see the odds for the BIG12 going up if there aren't one or more other conferences whose odds go down, and I would want an explanation for how that mechanism worked. Hopefully Gee and the rest will have some statisticians on speed dial to get down in the weeds of the methodology. [/QUOTE]

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