Is this accurate? (Ignore the Big East)
Updated B1G Standings
- Thread starter Knight Shift
- Start date
I’ll say this. If Iowa ends up the 4 seed, I don’t wanna be the 5.
Lots of basketball to be played, let’s win our next 4 and snag 2nd. Pack the RAC and beat Mich
I think we get the spot over them because once Iowa gets the top spot, they look at the next three in isolation. We beat Maryland, so we’re above them.
In this scenario we likely play Nebraska again. If we finish 5th, I’m sure we’ve locked things up already. If, however, we’re 10-10 and the 7 seed, I sure as **** don’t want to play Nebraska as a 10 for a must-win to get in. We need one of these next two games and then Minnesota.
And Michigan State also had their Minnesota game postponed.
Illinois and Michigan State both 8-7. Four teams 9-7.
Indiana one game up at 10-6.
It may go deep into the tie-breakers this year to place teams in the Big Ten Tournament.
Of the teams 8-7 or better Rutgers plays 2.
Indiana plays 4: at Mich State, at Purdue, Iowa, Michigan.
Iowa plays 2: Michigan State, at Indiana. Also home to Nebraska.
Illinois plays 3: Northwestern, Michigan, Purdue
Michigan plays 3: at Rutgers, at Illinois, Indiana.
Michigan State plays 2: Indiana, at Iowa. Also have the newly dangerous at Nebraska.
Maryland plays one. Northwestern at home.
Even Northwestern at 11-5 (they were 6-5 on Feb 4th) has at Ilinois, at Maryland, Penn State, and at Rutgers. Never easy on the road in the Big Ten. In their five game win streak they beat Wisconsin and Ohio State on the road and home over Purdue, Indiana, and Iowa.
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Rutgers controls its destiny and most of the teams competing for a double bye have more difficult schedules.
Beat Michigan at home and Minnesota on the road.
Then get a home win at a rocking RAC against Northwestern.
Beat Michigan at home and Minnesota on the road.
Then get a home win at a rocking RAC against Northwestern.
Amazing that the “worst team in the BIG right now” is tied for 4th place.
Also amazing that when conference games begin one team wins and the opponent loses and the net record is .500. I am shocked by this phenomenon every season.
Also amazing that when conference games begin one team wins and the opponent loses and the net record is .500. I am shocked by this phenomenon every season.
Good information about how many games each of the top teams have left against opponents 8-7 or better.
Indiana has 4 tough ones.
Scheduling favors Rutgers but that @Penn State game will be a dog fight.
Let’s win these final 4 games and we will be sitting pretty. We do control our own destiny. As others have pointed out , it is a zero sum game in conference. Amazingly the number of wins = the number of losses.
Beat Michigan and we can worry about everything else later
Last season someone found a site where you could plug in game results toward end of season and it spat out what the BTT bracket would look like with all the tie breakers explained etc.
Anyone still have the link?
Anyone still have the link?
Your wish is my command!
http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
FWIW - I hit the "calculate seeds" using the default options and we finish as the 2nd seed, as we win the final four games. But we'd only be one win away from 8th place. This is going to be such a tight scramble for seeding.
Big 10 Standings
1. Purdue (16 - 4)
2. Rutgers (13 - 7) Defeated Maryland based on head-to-head record (1-0).
3. Maryland (13 - 7) Lost to Rutgers based on head-to-head record (0-1).
4. N'western (12 - 8) Defeated Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, and Mich St based on round-robin record (5-2).
5. Iowa (12 - 8) Defeated Indiana, Illinois, and Mich St and lost to N'western based on round-robin record (4-3).
6. Indiana (12 - 8) Defeated Illinois and Mich St and lost to N'western and Iowa based on round-robin record (4-4).
7. Mich St (12 - 8) With Illinois, lost to N'western, Iowa, and Indiana based on round-robin record (2-4). Defeated Illinois based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Maryland and Rutgers] (2-1).
8. Illinois (12 - 8) With Mich St, lost to N'western, Iowa, and Indiana based on round-robin record (2-4). Lost to Mich St based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Maryland and Rutgers] (1-1).
9. Michigan (10 - 10)
10. Nebraska (8 - 12) Defeated Wisconsin based on head-to-head record (1-0).
11. Wisconsin (8 - 12) Lost to Nebraska based on head-to-head record (0-1).
12. Penn St (7 - 13)
13. Ohio St (4 - 16)
14. Minnesota (1 - 19)
I put in some pretty reasonable results including us going 3-1 rest of way (losing at PSU) and it resulted in us in a 3 way tie for second place with Indiana and NW... In that group of 3 we'd own the tiebreaker and get the 2 seed.
Gonna be a crazy end to the conference season
One thing in our favor re tie breakers is that win vs. Perdue can come into play.
They need to stay atop the standings.
They need to stay atop the standings.
Excellent summary and breakdown. Yes Maryland and Rutgers have the so called “easiest path” left. If we get Caleb back healthy and we got some mojo back after the Wisconsin win , I can see 4-0 or 3-1 which will likely be at worst 3rd or 4th. If Paul, Cam (excluding last game ) and Cliff do not play up to their capabilities ,, especially Paul and Cliff 2-2 and then it will be close.
Everybody else including Purdue , although unlikely they fall below 4 , has a tougher on paper final schedule . Likely NW, Indiana , Illinois , Iowa , Michigan and Michigan State lose 2 more times. So more probably than not we are fighting Maryland , NW for that 2,3,4 slots and double bye. Iowa after getting 3 home games on a row that they won , go on the road last night and got wiped out by NW by 20 points. NW also somehow gets 3 home games in a row that they won , now has 3 of their last 4 in the road.
Quirky schedule giving some teams 3 in a row at home while others are lucky to get 2 in a row. Plus the unbalanced schedule. total random scheduling affecting things as well. Only team that swept RU was Iowa and we have 3 chances to sweep teams ( although Ohio State should be counted) ( Penn State , Minnesota and Northwestern ) and splits in the others ( Indiana, MSU, Ohio State***, )
The Penn St formula is easy. They have 1 player you have to stop and defend the 3 point line. They have nothing inside. This is a game we need Cliff to dominate.
Unfortunately that one player is the best guard in the league or maybe the country. He controls games and he has been handled by very few teams . Caleb did it because he is the defender in the conference if not the country. If Pickett is really controlling things even if he doesn’t score 41 and 29 like he has last 2 games , if he is dishing out for threes and Funk and Lundy are on , they are extremely hard to beat. Even if Cliff goes for 25 if the scenario above happens you lose to the 3 point differential.
Have you watched him play ? Have you even watched him play recently ? Very very hard to shut him down . You are being too simplistic here. Great , just shut him down. Not remotely easy or possible. You can limit and try to hold him down below his normal production.
Purdue(13-4), 0-1 vs NW, 0-1 vs Ind, *0-1 vs RU*, 1-1 vs Md.
vs Indiana, @ Wisc, vs Illinois
NW(11-5), 1-1 vs OSU, *0-1 vs RU*, 0-2 vs Mich, 1-1 vs Iowa
@ Illinois, @ Md, vs PSU, @ RU
**3 out of 4 Road games**
Indiana(10-6), *RU 1-1*, Iowa 0-1, NW 0-2, PSU 0-1, Md 0-1
@ Mich St, @ Purdue, vs Iowa, vs Mich
Iowa(9-7), Wisc 0-1, Neb 0-1, PSU 0-1, OSU 1-1, MSU 0-1, Purd 0-1, NW 1-1
@ Wisc, vs MSU, @ Ind, vs Neb
RU(9-7), OSU 1-1, Iowa 0-2, MSU 1-1, Ind 1-1, Ill 0-1, Neb 0-1
vs Mich, @ PSU, @ Minn, vs NW
**Iowa and Illinois are the only teams we have to worry about in a tiebreaker situation with our 1-0 vs Purdue**, Mich 0-0, maybe
Mich(9-7), MSU 1-1, Iowa 0-1, Md 1-1, Purd 0-1, PSU 1-1, Ind 0-1, Wisc 0-1
@ RU, vs Wisc, @ Illinois, @ Ind
**3 out of 4 road games**
Md(9-7), Wisc 1-1, Mich 1-1, *RU 0-1*, Iowa 0-1, Purd 1-1, MSU 0-1, Neb 1-1
Vs Minn, vs NW, @ OSU, @ PSU
Illinois(8-7), Md 0-1, PSU 0-2, NW 0-1, Ind 0-2, Iowa 0-1
vs Minn, vs NW, @ OSU, vs Mich, @ Purd
Mich St(8-7), NW 0-1, Ill 0-1, Purd 0-2, Ind 0-1, RU 1-1, Mich 1-1
vs Ind, @ Iowa, @ Neb, vs OSU, {vs Minn}??
Should be an interesting last 2 weeks. Hopefully, the Ohio St game doesn't comeback to bite us. That home NW game could be for 2nd, 2nd place NW and 3rd place Indiana has the 2 toughest last 4 along with Michigan.
vs Indiana, @ Wisc, vs Illinois
NW(11-5), 1-1 vs OSU, *0-1 vs RU*, 0-2 vs Mich, 1-1 vs Iowa
@ Illinois, @ Md, vs PSU, @ RU
**3 out of 4 Road games**
Indiana(10-6), *RU 1-1*, Iowa 0-1, NW 0-2, PSU 0-1, Md 0-1
@ Mich St, @ Purdue, vs Iowa, vs Mich
Iowa(9-7), Wisc 0-1, Neb 0-1, PSU 0-1, OSU 1-1, MSU 0-1, Purd 0-1, NW 1-1
@ Wisc, vs MSU, @ Ind, vs Neb
RU(9-7), OSU 1-1, Iowa 0-2, MSU 1-1, Ind 1-1, Ill 0-1, Neb 0-1
vs Mich, @ PSU, @ Minn, vs NW
**Iowa and Illinois are the only teams we have to worry about in a tiebreaker situation with our 1-0 vs Purdue**, Mich 0-0, maybe
Mich(9-7), MSU 1-1, Iowa 0-1, Md 1-1, Purd 0-1, PSU 1-1, Ind 0-1, Wisc 0-1
@ RU, vs Wisc, @ Illinois, @ Ind
**3 out of 4 road games**
Md(9-7), Wisc 1-1, Mich 1-1, *RU 0-1*, Iowa 0-1, Purd 1-1, MSU 0-1, Neb 1-1
Vs Minn, vs NW, @ OSU, @ PSU
Illinois(8-7), Md 0-1, PSU 0-2, NW 0-1, Ind 0-2, Iowa 0-1
vs Minn, vs NW, @ OSU, vs Mich, @ Purd
Mich St(8-7), NW 0-1, Ill 0-1, Purd 0-2, Ind 0-1, RU 1-1, Mich 1-1
vs Ind, @ Iowa, @ Neb, vs OSU, {vs Minn}??
Should be an interesting last 2 weeks. Hopefully, the Ohio St game doesn't comeback to bite us. That home NW game could be for 2nd, 2nd place NW and 3rd place Indiana has the 2 toughest last 4 along with Michigan.
He takes a lot of shots. If he is going to get his points it needs to be shooting a bad percentage.
He plays bully ball, he can hit the 3 and he is a willing passer . He has shot like 15-19 recently and most are within 6-9 feet from the basket. It would be great wishing he shoots bad but that is not reality.
“Easiest path” is easy to say, but possibly missing two starters who are our best defenders makes the comment meaningless.
If it was that easy everyone would do it and PSU would be 0-16 in the B1G, instead of 7-9.
And if they were that unstoppable, they would not be 7-9.If it was that easy everyone would do it and PSU would be 0-16 in the B1G, instead of 7-9.
Unstoppable?? Lol
Who in this thread or anywhere else said anything about Unstoppable ?
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I think we match up well against Penn St even without Mag. We don’t match up well against Iowa as a for instanceIf it was that easy everyone would do it and PSU would be 0-16 in the B1G, instead of 7-9.
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Look at the 3 point shooting % and that will trace their wins and losses.
No one is saying they are unstoppable but they are a hard team to control everything they bring. We beat them 65-45 and held Pickett to 15 points on 7-14 shooting and 0-3 from 3. Lundy had 12 and Funk had 12 each going 2-4 and 2-7 from 3. They shot 4-26 from 3 and Pickett was controlled.
We are not holding them to 45 at their place and without Mag and not holding them to 4-26 from three. Pickett’s last 2 games are 32 and 41 points . Purdue got them 2x . They lost 2 close games to Wisconsin 63-60 away and 79-74 in OT at home. The only common denominator is Pickett being held just under 20 and they not shooting great from 3. They have beaten Indiana and Iowa. They could be 9-7 instead of 7-9 if the 2 Wisconsin games go the other way.
Caleb can guard Pickett and he can get 20 points anyway or 15-20. Without Mag who is going guard Lundy and who is gong to chase around Funk ? Not that easy this time as our defensive effort at the RAC was elite that night plus they missed a few open threes.
Doubt your facts. Minnesota , Michigan and Northwestern have to be more likely wins than losses and Penn State must be close like 47-48%.
Psu missed wide open shots at the RAC all night....We did the same at Michigan State...its that simple sometimes
Wow. That is really interesting. I ran a bunch of scenarios. Going 0-4, 1-3, 2-2, 3-1, 4-0
Anywhere from 2nd to 9th
A lot more extensive than the 8 or so scenarios I ran
. My only concern is that these scenarios (all 100k) likely don’t account for mag (and possibly Caleb) being out.