Last night's win garned us eight spots in the RPI
Current RPI: 64
Record: 17-7
Conference Record: 5-4
vs. Top 25: 0-1 (Kentucky, Tennessee remaining)
vs. Top 50: 3-2 (Kentucky, Tennessee remaining)
vs. Top 100: 5-4 (UK, UT, Alabama, South Carolina remaining)
Best Wins: Old Dominion, at Ole Miss, Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Rider, Western Kentucky, Arkansas
Biggest Losses: Richmond (top 25 RPI), Florida, Alabama, Arkansas (win two of these and we are on the right side of the bubble)
Arkansas has an opportunity to move into the top 100 before its all said and done, but Alabama is likely move outside the top 100.
Right now, we're on the outside looking in. We simply cannot afford another bad loss. In our final seven games, three of them are against sub-100 teams. Auburn, at Auburn, LSU. A fourth bad loss would be devastating.
We also need to beat Kentucky or Tennessee and get another quality win. Beating both of them, along with winning the must-wins, and we could probably drop the game against South Carolina without issue. If we drop the Kentucky game, we need to win the head-to-head with South Carolina, as they and Ole Miss are likely to be the teams we are up against for the fifth/sixth spot.
SEC pecking order, in my opinion:
LOCKS
6 Kentucky 23-1, 8-1 (a 1 seed at this point)
11 Vanderbilt 17-5, 7-2 (looking at a 3 seed)
22 Tennessee 18-5. 6-3 (looking like a 4 seed)
PROBABLY IN
52 Florida 17-7, 6-4 - toughest remaining schedule gives them some room for error.
ON THE BUBBLE - IN
45 Ole Miss 17-7, 5-5 - .500 in the SEC is keeping them nervous.
ON THE BUBBLE - OUT
63 South Carolina 14-9, 5-4 - has a shot at the top three SEC teams
64 Mississippi State 17-7, 5-4- has a shot at Kentucky and Tennessee, has beaten Ole Miss twice, and can beat USC
113 Arkansas 13-11, 6-3 - a long shot, but could make a late season run
Important Games this week:
Auburn at Mississippi State: State must win, period. A loss is not an option.
South Carolina at Georgia: Georgia is good enough to win this one. Any loss by USC can only help State
Arkansas at Alabama: A Bama win keeps them in the "good loss" category (and the possible good win category down the road) and gives State a chance to regain first in the West this weekend.
Xavier at Florida: I think Florida is probably in, and they beat us, so Florida beating a top 25 team helps our RPI more than the punch of giving us another Top 50 loss.
Kentucky at Mississippi State: Without saying, beating Kentucky gets us back on the right side of the bubble, assuming we beat Auburn.
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss: Go Dores
South Carolina at Arkansas: This one is tough, and depends on the results over the weekend on who we need to win.
Current RPI: 64
Record: 17-7
Conference Record: 5-4
vs. Top 25: 0-1 (Kentucky, Tennessee remaining)
vs. Top 50: 3-2 (Kentucky, Tennessee remaining)
vs. Top 100: 5-4 (UK, UT, Alabama, South Carolina remaining)
Best Wins: Old Dominion, at Ole Miss, Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Rider, Western Kentucky, Arkansas
Biggest Losses: Richmond (top 25 RPI), Florida, Alabama, Arkansas (win two of these and we are on the right side of the bubble)
Arkansas has an opportunity to move into the top 100 before its all said and done, but Alabama is likely move outside the top 100.
Right now, we're on the outside looking in. We simply cannot afford another bad loss. In our final seven games, three of them are against sub-100 teams. Auburn, at Auburn, LSU. A fourth bad loss would be devastating.
We also need to beat Kentucky or Tennessee and get another quality win. Beating both of them, along with winning the must-wins, and we could probably drop the game against South Carolina without issue. If we drop the Kentucky game, we need to win the head-to-head with South Carolina, as they and Ole Miss are likely to be the teams we are up against for the fifth/sixth spot.
SEC pecking order, in my opinion:
LOCKS
6 Kentucky 23-1, 8-1 (a 1 seed at this point)
11 Vanderbilt 17-5, 7-2 (looking at a 3 seed)
22 Tennessee 18-5. 6-3 (looking like a 4 seed)
PROBABLY IN
52 Florida 17-7, 6-4 - toughest remaining schedule gives them some room for error.
ON THE BUBBLE - IN
45 Ole Miss 17-7, 5-5 - .500 in the SEC is keeping them nervous.
ON THE BUBBLE - OUT
63 South Carolina 14-9, 5-4 - has a shot at the top three SEC teams
64 Mississippi State 17-7, 5-4- has a shot at Kentucky and Tennessee, has beaten Ole Miss twice, and can beat USC
113 Arkansas 13-11, 6-3 - a long shot, but could make a late season run
Important Games this week:
Auburn at Mississippi State: State must win, period. A loss is not an option.
South Carolina at Georgia: Georgia is good enough to win this one. Any loss by USC can only help State
Arkansas at Alabama: A Bama win keeps them in the "good loss" category (and the possible good win category down the road) and gives State a chance to regain first in the West this weekend.
Xavier at Florida: I think Florida is probably in, and they beat us, so Florida beating a top 25 team helps our RPI more than the punch of giving us another Top 50 loss.
Kentucky at Mississippi State: Without saying, beating Kentucky gets us back on the right side of the bubble, assuming we beat Auburn.
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss: Go Dores
South Carolina at Arkansas: This one is tough, and depends on the results over the weekend on who we need to win.