Very good article on Big 10 expansion

[patdog]

Link

 

[Railin Jemmye]

I will always say that if you put out a good product......

....then money will come in as a by-product. These guys are making mistakes.

The SEC didn't get as good as it is because we looked at demographics. It's good because there's passion from every fan base. People care. People WANT to watch. The games are good. The rivalries are good.

The B1G is manufacturing that by slipping things past people. It's finite and will run out. That is my theory, and one I happen to believe in. They made a GREAT decision with Nebraska, and a terrible decision with how they structured the divisions. I think Rutgers and Maryland are more terrible decisions, unless they couple this with getting 2 more solid programs that people care about. Virginia and Virginia Tech would be my choices.

 

[Incognegro]

And reading between the lines, you find out exactly why the SEC won't add FSU or Clemson for all of the people saying they should.

The passion of the Superfan, who actually may watch, forces providers to make every cable home in a state dole out maybe 50 or 75 cents a month to the conference, whether or not they know a football is inflated or stuffed.

Nearly every citizen is essentially taxed for living in a state with a Big Ten athletic department. Big programs like to boast they're self-sufficient and don't use public money that goes to the general university, but this is an end-around that accomplishes the same thing.

You don't pay on April 15 via the state. You pay every month via Comcast.

I don't know if it could be said any clearer as to why the SEC would never consider Clemson or FSU

 

[patdog]

Actually, the SEC proves your point. Until we added Texas and Missouri the demographics for the SEC were the worst of any major conference and it wasn't even close. Yet, the SEC has basically been even with the Big 10 in revenues for the last decade. I agree. The Big 10 is making a big mistake here. They're gaining some demographics, but they've made their product significantly worse. Just look at the Big East. They had the best demographics of anyone, but their product sucked. And they're not going to survive as a football conference. What's really sad is the Big 10 is actually paying these schools a joining fee. Just plan stupid.

 

[Incognegro]

Unless I read that wrong.... they're paying... both Maryland and Rutgers... to join their conference... and not the other way around?

 

[patdog]

You're reading it right. They are actually paying Maryland and Rutgers to join.

 

[Incognegro]

What the actual 17...? That makes 0 sense...

 

[patdog]

No, it doesn't. And the upshot for the ACC is that when they add UConn, they've upgraded in both quality and demographics, while the Big 10 has taken a big step back in quality.

 

[Incognegro]

Yeah, UConn and Maryland are about on equal footing to me as far as football is concerned, with Maryland having a bit better history, but not so much to make the loss hurt. When it comes to basketball, however, it's night and day. ACC adding UConn and losing Maryland would be a win/win.

The ACC is in a position to being one of the major conferences or really hurting themselves if they end up losing some of their better football programs. If they're somehow able to convince Notre Dame to eventually be a football member too with the way the college landscape is going, then they'll be fine.

 

[Railin Jemmye]

Speaking of UConn and Maryland.....

I bet Randy Edsall is kicking himself daily for making that move.

 

[patdog]

I don't think the ACC will lose any of the 12 schools that voted for the $50M exit fee. I think FSU would be making a mistake to go to the Big 12, but it's apparent they're at least considering it.

 

[Incognegro]

Yeah. I thought that was crazy at one time, but from a bit of reading I've been doing... it's actually likely. I personally don't think it will happen since I see that as a bad move altogether as the ACC (right now) has more stability than the Big XII.

I'm still predicting that we'll see 4 super conferences when it's all said and done. The next conference that will be reduced to scraps will be between the Big XII and the ACC and I honestly think both conferences have equal footing to be raided.

If the Big XII is to be reduced, that depends more on the Pac-12 wanting to move up in the ranks. I don't think they're giving up on the Oklahoma or Texas schools. If they're able to get 2 between TT, UT, OU or OSU then the Big XII is done. The other two will either eventually follow suit or go to the Big 10 or SEC. Same can be said about the ACC but right now they have a little more leeway to lose schools not named UNC, FSU, Clemson and VT.

 

[patdog]

The Big 12 should be very stable going forward. The Big 12's deal with Fox gives Fox the media rights for all 10 current members for 13 years. Even if any of them leave for another conference. No conference is going to add a Big 12 school if it can't get the media rights for over a decade.

The deal includes a "grant of rights" agreement, meaning if a Big 12 school leaves for another league in the next 13 years, that school's media rights, including revenue, would remain with the Big 12 and not its new conference. The grant of rights is huge for the Big 12's stability. Just last year, it appeared the league would implode by losing Texas and Oklahoma to the Pac-12. However, both schools stayed. The Big 12 did lose Missouri and Texas A&M to the SEC but replaced them this season with West Virginia and TCU.

Link

 

[Incognegro]

....wow... I completely overlooked that. That's pretty shrewd business acumen the Big XII flexed then. That probably doesn't 100% guarantee that the conference will be completely safe, but it's pretty damn close now. I had no idea about that.

 

[patdog]

Basicly, when Texas got shot down by the PAC-10 and Mizzouri and A&M bolted for the SEC, Texas realized they were about to 17 up big time and wind up a huge loser in realignment if they didn't do what it took to save the Big 12. So they and Oklahoma agreed to divide the media rights money more equally (I still don't think it's quite equal) and they agreed to the media deal and everyone else followed along. Most of them realized that the Big 12 was their best chance anyway.

 

[Incognegro]

Yeah, if the Big XII did dissolve, you could just hear the collective growns from Baylor, TCU, ISU and the Kansas schools. The Kansas schools would be the only ones in that group that would have a chance of getting picked by someone, but only one of them (probably Kansas). Everyone else would be left to fend for themselves and would have to probably join the C-USA or form a new league entirely. It would absolutely be devastating.

 

[SkullCandy.sixpack]

SEC and FSU, Clemson

FSU and Clemson will also never be allowed into the SEC because FLA and SC don't want the competition in recruiting. I doubt two teams from the same state will ever happen again. Of course, Mississippi--the least populous state in the SEC--has two, which is one of the reasons why in-state recruiting here is so much harder than at LSU or Georgia.