Warren Nolan now projects MSU baseball SOS #1 overall for 2013...

[engie]

So much for "scheduling cupcakes" huh? There isn't going to be any more "low pressure" situations for Woodruff and Mitchell to get their stuff together. Really don't know how we fix that going forward, because the next 3 midweeks are brutal and very important victories to get -- and then we've only got 2 more midweeks on the entire season. They also predict us to go 37-19 overall and 15-15 in the SEC -- which nets us a #15 RPI good for 4th best in the league(this also assumes we go 3-2 in the final 5 nonconference games).

IF this metric is to be trusted, we only need to go 16-14 in conference to almost be a lock to host.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2013/predictedrpi

Our upcoming schedule is a ridiculous meat grinder though(RPI):
22
@55(we all know Arky is actually alot better than this)
@55
@55
@12
25
25
25
11 at Trustmark(OM)
@18
@18
@18
70
70
70
135 at AutoZone(Memphis)
@4
@4
@4
36
36
36
@11
@11
@11
144
26
26
26

 

[57stratdawg]

We will certainly not be a 'lock' at 16-14. It would put us in the dicussion, but no where near a lock.

 

[nsvltndog]

I'm not at all surprised. The SEC scheduling guru saw no need for us to play the 3 weakest teams in the East (Missouri, Tennessee, and Georgia) while also scheduling the 2 weakest SEC West teams (Alabama and Auburn) as home series for us. You have to try really hard to create a conference schedule this ridiculous.

 

[engie]

We will certainly not be a 'lock' at 16-14. It would put us in the dicussion, but no where near a lock.

Did I say it would make us a lock? No -- but 15-15 puts us directly on the hosting bubble. 16-14 is almost a done deal.

That likely makes us finish in the RPI top 12 -- top 4 in the SEC -- toughest schedule in the country -- Dudy Noble Field -- haven't hosted since 2003 -- Didn't get to host last year despite being on the bubble. Those are all factors that would be playing in our favor.

We go 16-14 with the schedule we are facing and finish in the top 4 in the SEC in both RPI and Boyd ISR -- there is a tremendous chance we are hosting in June.

 

[Shmuley]

Maybe not a lock, but damn near. At least I think damn near.

 

[MSU124]

It has to help that we are Mississippi State.

 

[InaccuratePredictionsDawg]

If we go from current record of 2-4 to 16-14...

...we are a surefire lock to host. You can't go from 2-4 to 16-14 without putting together an impressive string of wins along the way. Considering our hellish schedule going forward, I think we are even in the hosting dicussion if we finish 14-16.

 

[57stratdawg]

I don't think 16-14 puts us in the top 4 in the SEC. There are some East teams that look like they're headed for single digit wins, and unfortunately for us we don't play any of them. I think you'll see a bigger gap between the top and bottom of the SEC this year.

I think we'll look back at the regular season and say the LSU and UK series were big, because they were much more winnable than some of the series we've got ahead. @ Ark, @ Vandy, @ OM, @ TAM (going to be tough series). We could start playing better baseball and still only win 4 or 5 games in those series combined.

Long way to go, but we're putting ourselves behind the 8 ball early.

 

[patdog]

I really don't think most of our fanbase realizes that on the national college baseball scene Mississippi State has been just another program for the last 20 years. Most people don't see MSU as any kind of national power at all and haven't for a long time. The name Mississippi State meant something in 1990. Not today. That said, if we finish with a #15 RPI and 4th highest in the SEC, I bet we host.

 

[MSU124]

I really don't think most of our fanbase realizes that on the national college baseball scene Mississippi State has been just another program for the last 20 years. Most people don't see MSU as any kind of national power at all and haven't for a long time. The name Mississippi State meant something in 1990. Not today. That said, if we finish with a #15 RPI and 4th highest in the SEC, I bet we host.

[h=3]Top 25 on-campus college baseball crowds of all-time[/h]

Rank	Attendance	Schools, Location	Date
1	14,991	Florida at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 22, 1989
2	14,556	LSU at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 16, 1988
3	13,761	Arkansas at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 25, 1992
4	13,715	Clemson at Mississippi State, Starkville	June 9, 2007
5	13,617	Georgia at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 8, 2006
6	13,123	Ole Miss at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 15, 2000
7	12,708	Auburn at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 24, 1993
8	12,620	Clemson at Mississippi State, Starkville	June 8, 2007
9	12,360	Georgia at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 6, 2002
10	12,313	Alabama at LSU, Baton Rouge	April 17, 2010
11	12,076	Florida at LSU, Baton Rouge	March 18, 2011
12	11,763	Auburn at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 12, 2003
13	11,588	Centenary at LSU, Baton Rouge	February 19, 2010
14	11,496	Florida State at Mississippi State, Starkville	May 27, 1990
15	11,332	Alabama at
16	11,225	Arkansas at LSU, Baton Rouge	March 19, 2010
17	11,220	Pepperdine at LSU, Baton Rouge	March 6, 2010
18	11,201	Florida at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 9, 2011
19	11,174	Florida at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 13, 1991
20	11,157	Kansas at LSU, Baton Rouge	March 12, 2010
21	11,127	South Alabama at Mississippi State, Starkville	May 26, 2000
22	11,126	Centenary at LSU, Baton Rouge	February 20, 2010
23	11,089	Tennessee at Mississippi State, Starkville	April 17, 2010
24	11,074	Kansas at LSU, Baton Rouge	March 14, 2010
25	11,014	Arizona State at Arkansas, Fayetteville	April 8, 2009

<tbody>
</tbody>

This has to help a little, one would think.

 

[engie]

I don't think 16-14 puts us in the top 4 in the SEC. There are some East teams that look like they're headed for single digit wins, and unfortunately for us we don't play any of them. I think you'll see a bigger gap between the top and bottom of the SEC this year.

I think we'll look back at the regular season and say the LSU and UK series were big, because they were much more winnable than some of the series we've got ahead. @ Ark, @ Vandy, @ OM, @ TAM (going to be tough series). We could start playing better baseball and still only win 4 or 5 games in those series combined.

Long way to go, but we're putting ourselves behind the 8 ball early.

You are assuming that SEC record is what applies to hosting here -- when it is just a minimal contributor. Those on the committee are smart enough to see the discrepancies built into the SEC baseball schedule this year. RPI(or more specifically Boyd's ISR) plays a much, much larger role. If you look at it over the past couple of years, they've almost gone by it exclusively when picking host sites -- while remaining "politically/geographically correct".

No, 16-14 will not put us in the top 4 in SEC conference standings -- but it will put us in the 4 best teams in the conference by most of the unbiased metrics out there.

 

[patdog]

Which means absolutely nothing when it comes to choosing who will host a regional. If it comes down to Mississippi State or Michigan State for the 16th and last regional, it'll be in East Lansing.

 

[engie]

Boyd's "host announcement time" ISR last year. Bolded are regional hosts. Bolded and Italics are national seeds. This was the most controversial year that I recall on host sites as well.

1) UCLA
2) Stanford
3) Baylor
4) Florida
5) Oregon
6) North Carolina
7) Florida St
8) Arizona
9) LSU
10) South Carolina
11) Arizona St - ineligible for postseason
12) Oregon St - 5th team from PAC12
13) NC State
14) Texas A&M
15) Cal State Fullerton - 5th team from west coast
16) Arkansas - 4th/5th team from SEC -- Hosed in favor of Miami
17) Kentucky - 4th/5th team from SEC -- Hosed in favor of Miami
18) Rice
19) San Diego - 5th team from west coast
20) Purdue
21) Virginia
22) Mississippi State - 6th team from SEC
23) Miami

Of this, Miami is the only head scratcher. The rest went prettymuch by the book -- other than Stanford getting hosed on a national seed in favor of LSU and the 2 time defending national champions...

 

[engie]

Which means absolutely nothing when it comes to choosing who will host a regional. If it comes down to Mississippi State or Michigan State for the 16th and last regional, it'll be in East Lansing.

Not if they are outside the RPI/ISR top 30, they won't. You must assume that Michigan State's body of work is similar enough to justify putting one up there.

They certainly want to put one in the north -- but they won't obviously cheat another team in the process. Purdue deserved to host last year based on their body of work. In 2011, all 16 regionals were in traditional powerhouses. In 2010, Louisville and Coastal Carolina hosted -- but nothing up north. In 2009, ECU, Louisville, and UC Irvine hosted -- but nothing up north.

In fact, Missouri in 2007 and Nebraska a few years prior is about as close to a "northern school" as has hosted since we were sent to Columbus as a 1-seed in 2001...

In current RPI/ISR, only Indiana should be considered a legitimate threat to host...

 

[maroonmania]

...we are a surefire lock to host. You can't go from 2-4 to 16-14 without putting together an impressive string of wins along the way. Considering our hellish schedule going forward, I think we are even in the hosting dicussion if we finish 14-16.

All I know is for us to do breakeven or better in the SEC our pitching staff better get its act together fast. We don't have an offense good enough to carry a mediocre pitching staff in the SEC and we pretty much knew that coming into the year.

 

[patdog]

Nolan projects Michigan State's RPI to be #18. Of course, now that I look again, he project Indiana to be #3. Which is proof that RPI is just ********. Does Boyd do year-end projections? Those would be more meaningful.

 

[engie]

Nolan projects Michigan State's RPI to be #18. Of course, now that I look again, he project Indiana to be #3. Which is proof that RPI is just ********. Does Boyd do year-end projections? Those would be more meaningful.

He does the "RPI needs" projection -- which should come out in a couple of more weeks. It tells you exactly what you have to accomplish to attain a certain RPI..

Nolan is projecting them to go 19-5 and 17-7 in conference respectively -- which I truly do not see happening. There are 5 decent teams in the B1G this year that should have some sort of chance of making regionals...

 

[JackShephard]

does anybody really think we're going 14-10 from here?

 

[patdog]

There's no reason we can't. It'll be tough, no doubt. But definitely doable for this team.

 

[engie]

does anybody really think we're going 14-10 from here?

Are you going on the record saying that we're aren't?

What is impossible about 14-10? We went 11-4 in the final 15 in 2012 -- 6-3 in the final 9 in 2011. We traditionally get hot at the end of seasons under Cohen.

This is what we've got left:
in Fayetteville
at home against Florida
in College Station
at home against Auburn
in Nashville
at home against Alabama
in Oxford
at home against South Carolina

 

[Coach34]

does anybody really think we're going 14-10 from here?

I think we'll go 5-1 in the Bama and Auburn series- so that leaves us 9-9 in the rest of them

 

[JackShephard]

"Can" and "will" are totally different. Can we? Yes. Will we? Based on what we've seen so far, I think it's unlikely. We don't have dominant starting pitching and we struggle to hit above average pitching. I'd say 12-12 is the most likely.

 

[Goat Holder]

You've lost your mind. If they can find a way for MSU to host a regional, they'll make it happen. Big crowds equals more money, pal. Apparently you haven't noticed that a bunch of people come out to the ballpark when MSU has a good team. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if you hadn't. When's the last time you've been to a game up there, King Doomsayer?

Us getting the nod over Clemson ring a bell?

 

[Forrest4Moore]

You've lost your mind. If they can find a way for MSU to host a regional, they'll make it happen. Big crowds equals more money, pal. Apparently you haven't noticed that a bunch of people come out to the ballpark when MSU has a good team. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if you hadn't. When's the last time you've been to a game up there, King Doomsayer?

Us getting the nod over Clemson ring a bell?

Worked out well for us last year.**

 

[patdog]

It's not the late 1980s/early 1990s any more. That's not the way the decide who hosts a regional. As for us getting the nod over Clemson, that was super regional, not a regional. And that year proves my point. We wouldn't have had a snowball's chance in hell of hosting that if Coatal Carolina hadn't choked in their regional. We sure as hell didn't host a regional that year, even though we were a #2 seed. The NCAA sure didn't go out of their way to have us host a regional even though they had evey chance to do so if that was still the way the regional hosts were decided.

 

[Philly Dawg]

I'd say that "most people" includes most MSU fans as well.

 

[blacklistedbully]

Are you going on the record saying that we're aren't?

What is impossible about 14-10? We went 11-4 in the final 15 in 2012 -- 6-3 in the final 9 in 2011. We traditionally get hot at the end of seasons under Cohen.

This is what we've got left:
in Fayetteville
at home against Florida
in College Station
at home against Auburn
in Nashville
at home against Alabama
in Oxford
at home against South Carolina

I can see 11-4 or better against UF, TAMU, AU, UT, & Bama. 4-5 or better against the rest.

 

[blacklistedbully]

I can see 11-4 or better against UF, TAMU, AU, UT, & Bama. 4-5 or better against the rest.

Setting up nicely. Only need to go 6-3 against AU, UT & Bama. Anybody think we're not likely to do that?

 

[CadaverDawg]

Setting up nicely. Only need to go 6-3 against AU, UT & Bama. Anybody think we're not likely to do that?

We don't play UT. So when you swap that out for Vandy, it makes 6-3 a tall order.

 

[blacklistedbully]

We don't play UT. So when you swap that out for Vandy, it makes 6-3 a tall order.

Good point. I didn't bother to check the accuracy of my previous post. Still, I think we have a good shot at it. Likely need to sweep either AU or Bama, win 2 of 3 from the other, then get at least 1 from Vandy. Not at all far-fetched. Heck, taking 2 from Vandy isn't even preposterous.

 

[Goat Holder]

You all are going to have to stop with the gaytasterisks. If a mfer can't see the sarcasm on its own then he needs to be ridiculed anyway.

Anyway, I highly doubt our SOS was this high last year. And we were damn close to hosting even then, there were just other obviously more qualified teams. We were 34-21, 16-14 last year. Surely you can see the difference between that and us this year, likely around 39-40 wins and a 16-14 record vs. the SEC this year.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Good point. I didn't bother to check the accuracy of the post I was responding to. Still, I think we have a good shot at it. Likely need to sweep either AU or Bama, win 2 of 3 from the other, then get at least 1 from Vandy. Not at all far-fetched. Heck, taking 2 from Vandy isn't even preposterous.

Not far fetched at all. If we win 5 out of 6 against the state of Alabama, AND take 2 from Vandy...we could possibly begin entering the National Seed discussion. But like Engie mentioned in a different thread, it will likely take close to 20 SEC wins, and us tightening the gap with LSU and Vandy, to even think National Seed.

 

[RobbieRandolph]

You realize they were initially (also still) used to signify no body in the message, right?

 

[CadaverDawg]

You all are going to have to stop with the gaytasterisks. If a mfer can't see the sarcasm on its own then he needs to be ridiculed anyway.

Goat, you seem to be frustrated a lot lately with SPS. Don't tell me IT is coming again. I can see it now, a new message board called GOAT.com. It already has 6 members...Goat and his 5 other personalities. Bi-Polars Welcome. And the logo......

 

[patdog]

Why do people keep saying we were close to hosting last year? There were 16 #2 seeds. We weren't necessarily any closer to hosting then any of the other 15 were. And if some on this board are to be believed and our attendance gets us preferential treatment for hosting (which it doesn't), then if we were close, why didn't we host?

 

[HotMop]

Your smart. ******

 

[engie]

Why do people keep saying we were close to hosting last year? There were 16 #2 seeds. We weren't necessarily any closer to hosting then any of the other 15 were. And if some on this board are to be believed and our attendance gets us preferential treatment for hosting (which it doesn't), then if we were close, why didn't we host?

I think we were one of the first 3-4 outside of hosting last year. We were RPI #20 at host selection -- we were certainly on the hosting bubble.

The problem was that Arky and Kentucky had better RPIs and conference records than us(tiebreaker with Arky). When they were passed over to host(UK got screwed relative to Miami who actually got the ACC's 5th host site IMO), we had no chance though...

 

[Goat Holder]

There were rumblings that we were close. Nobody really knows for sure. On the bubble at least. That's really it.

Nobody says we get preferential treatment. But if all things are equal, we'd get the nod over anybody but maybe LSU, Carolina and Arkansas. Last year, things weren't equal....there were a few teams ahead of us, namely LSU, Carolina, Florida and Kentucky. Kentucky was actually thought to get a host spot, but got jacked by Purdue.

This year, we are likely in Kentucky's spot, behind LSU, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. We may even overtake Arkansas by year's end.

 

[patdog]

Lots of people on this board say we get preferential treatment. We don't.

Reply to engie: RPI #20 in the SEC won't get you much consideration for hosting because as you point out, there will be too many teams from the conference ahead of you.

 

[Goat Holder]

Lots of people on this board say we get preferential treatment.

Wrong. It was me that you are referring to. Your original retort is in THIS thread, that was bumped from March. I posted this:

You've lost your mind. If they can find a way for MSU to host a regional, they'll make it happen. Big crowds equals more money, pal. Apparently you haven't noticed that a bunch of people come out to the ballpark when MSU has a good team. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if you hadn't. When's the last time you've been to a game up there, King Doomsayer?

Us getting the nod over Clemson ring a bell?