What is the better decision that wasn’t made?
It can’t be answered, ever, because it’s eternally subjective and unknowable. We’ll never know how ND or Texas or Vandy would have performed this year, because they didn’t make it. We’ll never know what would have happened if TCU got in over Ohio State, in 2014, because they didn’t make it. We’ll never know how FSU would have done in 2023, because they didn’t make it.
In a playoff, the only thing that is 100% certain is that there is always going to be a higher number of capable teams than how many teams that you can select, no matter how big you make it or how inclusive you try to be. People try to apply this “the regular season matters” / “head to head has to matter” mantra, but also say “decide it on the field”. You can’t do both. Once you select and seed the teams, nothing that happened in the regular season matters at all. 3 weeks go by, and its a clean slate and a new data set. The teams that were really good in the regular season may or may not still be really good.
And we are 100% guaranteed to disqualify many capable teams EVERY year, no matter how big the field gets. It’s an exercise in futility to try and avoid that. See above.
But one thing that we are quickly learning, is that an almost comical amount of emphasis has been placed on head to head results in the regular season when trying to judge teams. Actual data has consistently shown that, honestly, that shít shouldn’t really matter at all…..beyond how it is used to settle in-conference tie breakers.
This year, in P4-vs-P4 matchups that repeat in the postseason, the losers of the regular season game are 4-1 in the rematch when the stakes are at the absolute highest. Only one who didn’t win was BYU over Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. Going back countless years (2011 LSU / Bama, 1996 UF / FSU, etc), you’ll see the same thing. Using head-to-head in football as this major criteria when you only have 1 friggen data point is even more arbitrary than simply flipping a coin.