We are winning DESPITE Cohen's ---
- Thread starter DAWGS1.sixpack
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Bunch of internent bad asses we have on here tonight I see.
For you dumb m<17>'s with so little baseball knowledge, having Renfroe try and bunt with a runner already in scoring position is Stupid. Trying the cute little sqeeze there is also Stupid. We've tried that more than once this yr to n avail.
For you dumb m<17>'s with so little baseball knowledge, having Renfroe try and bunt with a runner already in scoring position is Stupid. Trying the cute little sqeeze there is also Stupid. We've tried that more than once this yr to n avail.
I agree that bunting Renfroe was a bad call, but not because there is already a runner in scoring position. When you have a guy on second with no outs, that is when you almost always want to bunt. Since there was a walk and the runners advanced anyway, it ended up having no effect.
Squeeze play was not that bad a call, but I wouldn't have done it on first pitch. We needed a better count.
Squeeze play was not that bad a call, but I wouldn't have done it on first pitch. We needed a better count.
he's not flailing
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php
and yes renfroe is struggling right now. however he's still hands down out best hitter. you don't take the bat out of his hands there imo.
that's not saying cohen shouldn't be commended for other decisions or player development or recruiting or any of the other 100s of things that go into building a program. he's just saying he disagrees with those specific decisions and he's backed up by unbiased numerical data. tonight things worked out for us anyway thankfully.
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Nail on the head, Philly. I'm a Cohen supporter, but I agree that sometimes he over-coaches. The squeeze was not a terrible call, but we all jump to the conclusion that it was after the recent failed attempt. Better count might would have helped.
Anyone hear Butch's postgame with Jim? He talked about Cohen wanting this pitcher or that because of matchups and he (Butch) had to convince him to stay with Gentry. I love what Cohen has done with our program, but in my opinion he needs to take a deep breath sometimes and not shoot himself in the foot over what some matchup/odds book tells him.
Well I'm definitely not gonna call someone out as flailing when the numbers support their comment.
I wouldn't worry about the slump and let him hit. His numbers are too good and he hasn't bunted enough for you to be able to count on him to execute.
Every coach in the nation would have bunted in that situation. Runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs, Top 9, and tied up you bunt 100 out of 100 times.
Maybe on like a 1-0 count??
I thought the Renfroe bunt was the right call. You're playing for one run, and getting men on 2nd and 3rd creates many more opportunities. Too bad Renfroe sucks at bunting...
I thought the Renfroe bunt was the right call. You're playing for one run, and getting men on 2nd and 3rd creates many more opportunities. Too bad Renfroe sucks at bunting...
My biggest issue with Cohen is his faith in pitchers that statistics do not back up. Pollo, besides being the crowd favorite, has killed us in his Friday night position. Pollo is good against mediocre talent but walks way too many batters. Cohen kept "believing" in Evan Mitchell too
sorry but statistical analysis over 1000s of games simply does not back that up. it seems like 2nd and 3rd with 1 out should create a better shot because it introduces a sac fly. however, the numbers don't back it up.
^^^^^^^^^
Outstanding post.
We are loaded with fans that can not appreciate any success without railing against our coaches . . . and we have more than a fair share who can not keep from being hypercritical of our players. Is it alcohol, drugs, or just stupidity? Inquiring minds want to know.
And this is why he shouldn't have been asked to try to bunt. I'm fine with moving runners to 2nd & 3rd with 1 out. But asking Renfroe to bunt was just giving USC a free out. I'd rather have him hitting with runners at 1st and 2nd and 0 outs than have Pirtle hitting with runners at 1st and 2nd with 1 out. Although it turned out pretty good that way.
Normally, I would agree with this 100% but Renfroe has been sucking it up so bad lately (what is it 2/23 now??) with runners in scoring position that I think Cohen was just trying to shake things up with him to try to get him out of his slump (and using slump is being kind). A month and a half ago, we all would be on the edge of our seats with Renfroe coming up to bat with runners 1 and 2 or bases loaded....now, our collective butt holes are so tight we couldn't crap with diarrhea.
I think what Pollo does is get us a better matchup for our other 2 weekend starters. Basically, Graveman is a weak #1, Lindgren is a weak #2, and Pollo is an average #3. But Graveman and Lindgren are pretty good at the #2 & #3 spots, so Cohen flips the lineup to get better matchups in those games.
I agree, I remember being pushed down the order from 3rd to 8th in high school....absolute attention getter. But, last night, in that situation, I think you have to say, okay, Renfroe is going to screw the pooch once again here; lets at least get something out of it---runners to 2nd and 3rd. But obviously, Renfroe is so frustrated at this point that even that was insurmountable.
Actually....
most of the statistics kept for this look at how many runs you will score, on average, from certain situations. Averages do not take into account additional information you might have in a particular situation. The classic example is when the pitcher is batting in the national league. If the pitcher has a .090 batting average, then bunting would improve your chances of scoring because the chances of having a man on first with one out would be greater than the chances of him getting a hit or walk. All of that gets worked into the averages, and you can't treat every situation as the average situation.
most of the statistics kept for this look at how many runs you will score, on average, from certain situations. Averages do not take into account additional information you might have in a particular situation. The classic example is when the pitcher is batting in the national league. If the pitcher has a .090 batting average, then bunting would improve your chances of scoring because the chances of having a man on first with one out would be greater than the chances of him getting a hit or walk. All of that gets worked into the averages, and you can't treat every situation as the average situation.
True, but given his last at bats, Pirtle would've likely been hitting with 1st and 2nd and 1 out anyway. Recall his popup foul to first with bases loaded and one out earlier.
I think Renfroe's bunting problem was that he squared around too late, and he was trying to get out of the box quickly (bc he wants to beat the play at 1st).
I think Renfroe's bunting problem was that he squared around too late, and he was trying to get out of the box quickly (bc he wants to beat the play at 1st).
Do you have stats for that situation when your hitter in a 4-30 slump who have REALLY struggled with RISP, including this game (cant even deliver a sac fly) and a number of ABs the night before, with two more righties coming up against a LHP next in the lineup, in the top of the ninth of a tie game?
Didn't think so.
Didn't think so.
Yep, I'd rather finish 9th in the conference and hope for a 3rd seed against Fullerton. Polk III baby.
oh wow, no ****, you should probably more strongly consider bunting when you have a pitcher hitting in that situation? luckily, scrolling down that link, they have the numbers broken down by hitting position for both NL and AL. now there's not anything specifically directed towards pitchers hitting so pinch hitters and double switches obviously factor in a bit, but you can get a general idea from analyzing just the 9 hole spot in NL lineups. (also in a 9th inning situation in a tied game with runners on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs, the pitcher likely isn't hitting, so you'll have a pinch hitter in there). but this goes along with your comment: "However, one can now uncover an instance where a successful bunt actually increases the expected runs using the ERT. The run potential with runners on first and second with no outs and the pitcher hitting is 1.238. A successful sacrifice bunt brings up the leadoff hitter with runners on second and third and one out; a state with a run expectation of 1.336. Again, this needs caveats: not all bunts are successful, but clearly given that this is based on overall averages, one can imagine circumstances in which a bunt is the correct strategy."
however, we didn't have a pitcher hitting .090 batting, so there goes the relevancy of your comment.
we know renfroe is struggling, ok? it's widely recognized. however over the course of the season, he's been our best hitter and one fo the best in the conference/country. ever thought that showing the confidence to let him swing away there might have given him the self-confidence boost he needed to get his head straight? bunting there shows that you have no confidence in him to have a productive AB and only hurts his self-confidence more. if he was a .220 hitter for the season, sure, go ahead and bunting might be a safer play. i however try to view 2 for his last 23 as still a relative small sample size that every player goes through in a season, and inexplicably the good ones go through tears where they follow up 2 for 23 with a 13 for 23 tear. it's how baseball goes. and you never know when the slump ends and the hot streak begins. for all we know today renfroe could go 4 for 5 with 2 HRs.
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it's also really annoying that no one can have a discussion without making outlandish statements like those that are critical of the bunting decisions would rather us not have cohen at all. that's ludicrous and no one says they want cohen gone. there's literally 1000s of factors and decisions that go into a successful team. cohen obviously makes the right moves far more often than not, whether it's recrutiing decisions, development decisions, staff decisions, lineup decisions, in game decisions, etc. so when posters act like you want to fire cohen because you criticize his fondness for bunting when the numbers don't support the decision, it's really annoying.
i don't wanna fire mullen, but i'd be lying if his conservative in game decisions don't drive me nuts sometimes.
i don't wanna fire mullen, but i'd be lying if his conservative in game decisions don't drive me nuts sometimes.
Where are you getting your stats? And why are you using ERT? In the ninth in a tie game, you want the highest probability of getting ONE run. (Helpful hunt: you should use ERT to argue against early inning or mid-game bunts).
According to these stats, you are wrong: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php.
Take a look at table 4. This is the probability of scoring at least one run. As you can see, for both AL an NL, you are MORE LIKELY to score a run with one out and men on 2B and 3B (.689, .664) than with no outs and men on 1B and 2B (.637, .622).
According to these stats, you are wrong: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php.
Take a look at table 4. This is the probability of scoring at least one run. As you can see, for both AL an NL, you are MORE LIKELY to score a run with one out and men on 2B and 3B (.689, .664) than with no outs and men on 1B and 2B (.637, .622).
More relevant stats (both more current and specific to college baseball instead of pro) at Boydsworld. Odds of scoring at least 1 run are closer, but still in favor of 2nd & 3rd with 1 out. The problem with this argument is it assumes the bunter has the ability to actually bunt the runners over. From what I've seen of Renfroe swinging and bunting, he had a better chance of advancing the runners by swinging away, even in a 4-30 slump. Those were 2 of the ugliest bunt attempts I've ever seen. At least he's halfway swinging the bat and making some contact.
I'm not arguing that you should ALWAYS bunt there, but it's very short-sighted for someone to say you should never bunt there, especially if he is actually wrong about the likelihood of scoring in either situation.
I agree- Renfroe's bunting attempts look terrible. But most of his recent ABs have too. I think you'd agree that it wasn't a black-and-white decision, like some would like to say. I can certainly see it both ways.
I agree- Renfroe's bunting attempts look terrible. But most of his recent ABs have too. I think you'd agree that it wasn't a black-and-white decision, like some would like to say. I can certainly see it both ways.