We are winning DESPITE Cohen's ---

[patdog]

Completely agree with that. The chances of scoring 1-run are way closer than the individual variations in the batters. With a good hitter, I'd swing away in that situation and with a bad one, I'd bunt if he knew how to. Hell, the way Renfroe's been going, maybe the best option would be to just stand there and hope the pitcher threw 4 balls before he threw 3 strikes. I'd seriously either move him down to #7 in the order or even sit him out of tonight's game (probably let him pinch hit though).

 

[dawgs.sixpack]

Where are you getting your stats? And why are you using ERT? In the ninth in a tie game, you want the highest probability of getting ONE run. (Helpful hunt: you should use ERT to argue against early inning or mid-game bunts).

According to these stats, you are wrong: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php.

Take a look at table 4. This is the probability of scoring at least one run. As you can see, for both AL an NL, you are MORE LIKELY to score a run with one out and men on 2B and 3B (.689, .664) than with no outs and men on 1B and 2B (.637, .622).

in the top of the 9th, i'd still like to score more than 1 run. in the bottom of the 9th in a tied game, then yes, it makes sense cause 1 run ends the game.

 

[Lawdawg.sixpack]

So you would play for two runs...

Even though you are more likely to score if you bunt. Got it. And it's not more likely to score ONLY one run, it's more likely to score. Period.

If you're gonna rely on stats, you should understand what they mean. You are stating that you would rather play the less likely odds.

 

[mparkerfd20]

I'm just glad Renfroe wasn't given the opportunity to hit into a double play. I'd rather have Pollorena batting with runners on base lately than Renfroe. With the bunt you at least get something positive out of it. The positive in this case was only 1 out instead of 2.

(Yes I'm very disappointed with Mr. Anti-Clutch as of late.)

 

[Philly Dawg]

I'm not sure I understand your point. I said that I agreed that we should not have bunted Renfroe, and only gave the pitcher example as, just that, an example. Which, apparently, was completely consistent with the statistics you are following. Bunting a man from second to third gives up on a bigger inning but increases the chance to score at least one run.