We win this regional - yes or no?
- Thread starter 57stratdawg
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I think they
(Mitchell & Lindgren) will do their part. We just have to hope our bats can get 3 or more runs. ULL doesn't fare well against lefty, junkballers.
(Mitchell & Lindgren) will do their part. We just have to hope our bats can get 3 or more runs. ULL doesn't fare well against lefty, junkballers.
Now that ULL has their heads out of their behinds, I believe this regional will go the way everyone initially thought: ULL and MSU in a dog fight for the championship. Our pitching versus their hitting. I say we get it done today though. Defense wins championships.
Have to like our chances, but...
...our fan base needs grow accustomed to this style of baseball (low-scoing, 1-2 run games). It's not for the faint of heart, but for those of you used to the "big bat, big-inning style" of play that Polk and McMahon (sp?) used - forget those days. This isn't that type of game.
Good pitching, solid fundamentals, good defense, and execution will win this thing. So far we're doing all of those.
One significant factor in our favor - post-season experience. Much bigger than one would expect on the Road to Omaha.
...our fan base needs grow accustomed to this style of baseball (low-scoing, 1-2 run games). It's not for the faint of heart, but for those of you used to the "big bat, big-inning style" of play that Polk and McMahon (sp?) used - forget those days. This isn't that type of game.
Good pitching, solid fundamentals, good defense, and execution will win this thing. So far we're doing all of those.
One significant factor in our favor - post-season experience. Much bigger than one would expect on the Road to Omaha.
It won't be easy
but being in the driver's seat helps. We have 2 shots to win 1 game. John and Butch have done a great job with our pitching situation and that sets up nicely for tonight. Just need the bats to warm up
but being in the driver's seat helps. We have 2 shots to win 1 game. John and Butch have done a great job with our pitching situation and that sets up nicely for tonight. Just need the bats to warm up
We're set up to do it. But in my opinion, the regional is going to be won or lost tonight. If we lose tonight, we're a long shot. Their boys can hit the baseball. So unless it just got so out of hand tonight that Lindgren didn't throw and could go 6 or 7+ tomorrow, I don't think our remaining pitchers could hold them at bay.
ULL is gonna score runs... and they seem to be doing it early in games before things get settled. Ross will have to come out and take control of this game from the first pitch or they are going to run all over us. All things point to favorable conditions for us, but we have got to take advantage... and that is going to come down to good hitting (especially 2 out/RISP).
I think ULL's offense is the real deal. If they get on base, they are very aggressive and will pressure you to make plays. They will challenge Collins. We have to be prepared to play very solid, fundamental defense and give them NO free passes. This is easier said than done... but we do these things defensively and bring the bats, I think we win this thing tonight. If not, this goes to an elimination game tomorrow and it's anybody's guess what can happen.
I think ULL's offense is the real deal. If they get on base, they are very aggressive and will pressure you to make plays. They will challenge Collins. We have to be prepared to play very solid, fundamental defense and give them NO free passes. This is easier said than done... but we do these things defensively and bring the bats, I think we win this thing tonight. If not, this goes to an elimination game tomorrow and it's anybody's guess what can happen.
I'm not doubting you, just wondering what the data says. Can you provide a link to one of the resources?
A good start: http://www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/current/team
By way of example, MSU is 4th in the nation in fielding percentage
What I am gathering from this is you are all-knowingly saying experience matters without any real evidence to back up the statement. If that's wrong, all I am asking is what you're basing the statement on. Is there a historical trend of CWS teams who have been recently having more success at returning than other teams? Or that lower seeded teams coming off an Omaha trip typically have an advantage over higher seeded teams who haven't been recently?
Your choice of the phrase "all-knowingly" is an interesting. Are you more interested in past results or predicting future results? Do past really events have an impact on future events? Can all factors be known? You decide.
The opposite of that is to say that experience does not matter. What evidence can you provide have to support that?
I wasn't the one making the claim. All I asked is that you defend it. Thus far, it hasn't been done. That's fine. In effect it answers the question.
All I'm saying is you refute it. You have not, and I don' feel compelled by the lack of framework you've displayed to defend conventional wisdom. Stalemate. Enjoyed the back and forth.
It certainly is leaning that way. We lose today and the Bulldogs don't help my argument.
Win or lose, my position is this: All other things being equal, I favor the team with more post-season experience.
Furthermore, in baseball, I believe that good pitching beats good hitting and is further bolstered by a team that has strong fielding percentage.
I wouldn't change my prediction even if MSU loses today.
That is all.
The "I favor" position is imminently more defensible than stating it as fact, which is where all of this back and forth nonsense started. I'm with you on that position for the most part. Actually I would rather just be ridiculously talented at every position even if they were all freshmen, a la Kentucky basketball. Short of that, I would like a team with talent at least comparable to the other teams, but with successful post-season experience. I don't know of any data that backs up that actually working to that team's advantage, but if I'm picking my situation, I'm picking some guys who have been to and performed on that stage.
I also buy into the good pitching > good hitting theory, especially in this age of college baseball. Now let's put this to bed and all pull the rope in the same direction today. Which direction might that be? North, I say. As in TSUN.
I like
how you bumped your prediction on us losing if CT and Rea don't hit (when they went 0'er in games we won) after a game when both were 5-10, 3 R's, 4 RBI's, and only 2 K's.
how you bumped your prediction on us losing if CT and Rea don't hit (when they went 0'er in games we won) after a game when both were 5-10, 3 R's, 4 RBI's, and only 2 K's.
Although not baseball, the link below is one example of how intangibles (i.e. experience) might be measured that I've come across before. I applaud the attempt and, while certainly debatable, it makes for an interesting read.
I don't consider this data, but it is a creative approach to collect it.
http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpr...sis-prediction-model-for-the-ncaa-tournament/