Week 3 ICE Projections

[Coalertown44]

Well Conference play finally kicks off in the ICE. Not a whole lot of good matchups but here we go:

CC @ Herscher: Herscher got exposed last week against a ranked 2A school in Clifton Central 42-26. Coal City is coming off a huge win at home against Bishop Mac 34-20. Unless there is a big let down I like the Coalers in this one. CC 42 Herscher 6

Wilmington @ Streator: Wilmington has rolled two bigger schools in week 1 and 2. And I don't see that changing here. Streator split their non conference games and has an outside shot at 5 wins but not this week. Wilmo 44 Streator 13

RC @ Peotone: RC had a good win against ex conference foe Dwight last week 35-20 and Peotone won at home against Tinley Park 48-33. Like Wilmo, Peotone tested themselves against some bigger lower tier teams in weeks 1 and 2. I don't see Peotone not slowing down against the Comets. Peotone 35 RC 14

ICE WEEK 3 GAME OF THE WEEK:
Lisle @ Manteno: Lisle comes in 2-0, beating Harvard 22-8 and Elmwood Park 20-15. They have a good QB and some good running backs. Defense seems to be playing well. Manteno comes in 0-2 with loses to Canton 47-32 and Morris 54-25. They have put up some points and had Morris on the ropes early. Lisle is a different team at home, this week they travel down south to Manteno. Assuming everyone is healthy, I like Manteno in an upset here. I think playing quality teams in weeks 1 and 2 helps out here. Manteno 35 Lisle 32

 

[DHS2018]

After being the most successful program in the conference the last 5 years, tough sledding for Herscher this year with injuries and seniors not going out being an issue.

 

[Doctor_D]

After being the most successful program in the conference the last 5 years, tough sledding for Herscher this year with injuries and seniors not going out being an issue.

Most successful by what metric? I’d say Herscher being the most successful is, at best, debatable.

Last 5 years:

Herscher: a first round exit, 2nd round, two quarters and a semi

Wilmington: first round, 2nd round, two quarterfinal losses to ICCP, and a 3A title.

 

[Coalertown44]

I believe Wilmington has a state title 5 years ago, and a couple quarterfinal appearances in the last 5 years.

 

[DHS2018]

Well last 3 years for sure, 5 maybe a stretch, but even in 2014 when Wilmo won the state title they only beat Herscher by 3 at their place. Last 3 years Herscher gone quarters, quarters and semis..

 

[Coalertown44]

I'm not saying Herscher was bad at all. They had a very good run with some great athletes. But as consistency goes Wilmington has been the most successful. I'm curious why so many kids in Herscher didn't come back this season?

 

[DHS2018]

I'm not saying Herscher was bad at all. They had a very good run with some great athletes. But as consistency goes Wilmington has been the most successful. I'm curious why so many kids in Herscher didn't come back this season?

Just a tough senior class to figure out, probably 7 kids that would be starters are not playing.. if they are, its maybe a 5-4 or 6-3 team that could win a game or maybe two in 3A.

 

[Doctor_D]

Herscher definitely had a solid run. Very surprised to hear about their numbers issues.

 

[PanthersWildcats86]

Coal City @ Herscher. Likely gonna get ugly. Coalers big.

Wilmington @ Streator. Cats already rolled a 5A & 6A school with methodical precision. I don't expect anything different this week. Cats big.

RC @ Peotone. Devils playing well, beating two larger schools. RC beat a Dwight team that just ended its co-op, hammered by a good Fieldcrest team. Peotone spears the Comets.

Lisle @ Manteno. Easily the game of the week despite Manteno's record. I don't picture Lisle pushing Manteno's defense around like Morris & Canton. Lisle plays better at home on the turf. If Manteno continues to develop on offense, and the shotgun snaps are better, the Panthers may be able to just outscore the Lions. Manteno in a shootout.

 

[PanthersWildcats86]

Apparently the AP thinks pretty highly of the ICE right now.

3A: Wilmington 2, Lisle 4, Peotone 12 (getting votes)

4A: Coal City 3, Herscher 12 (getting votes)

 

[Wilmatucky]

CC
Wilmo
Tone
Lisle

first three will be one sided......Lisle @ Manteno should be interesting, i agree with the better at home thought for the lions

 

[Wilmatucky]

Well last 3 years for sure, 5 maybe a stretch, but even in 2014 when Wilmo won the state title they only beat Herscher by 3 at their place. Last 3 years Herscher gone quarters, quarters and semis..

IHSA is so I can't check it right now, but hasn't Herscher had some good draws in the playoffs to get that far? Did they beat Wilmington in any of those years? Were they ever in the south bracket any of those years?

WIlmo ran into IC twice with what may have been championship caliber teams. That's the way the cookie crumbles but I'm just proving the point that draw matters and does not necessarily determine the success of a team for the whole year. Taking away last years team how many losses did Wilmo have over those 4 years......4? maybe 5?

 

[Doctor_D]

IHSA is so I can't check it right now, but hasn't Herscher had some good draws in the playoffs to get that far? Did they beat Wilmington in any of those years? Were they ever in the south bracket any of those years?

WIlmo ran into IC twice with what may have been championship caliber teams. That's the way the cookie crumbles but I'm just proving the point that draw matters and does not necessarily determine the success of a team for the whole year. Taking away last years team how many losses did Wilmo have over those 4 years......4? maybe 5?

In all fairness, Herscher was 4A most of those years I believe. Ran into Phillips one year. Herscher had a fairly easy draw to the 3A semis last year, but they basically had the same draw as Wilmington, who got bounced in round one.

 

[DHS2018]

In 2016 lost to Phillips and in 2017 lost to Highland, both years were top 5 in 4A despite being one of the smallest schools in that class.. Last year not the toughest draw, but did beat the team that knocked out Wilmington.. I think a fair assessment to say they were top 5 in 3A last year, which is more a statement on 3A than Herscher.

 

[Coalertown44]

Days like this make me wonder what rock in Kankakee County HHS is hiding under

 

[Wilmatucky]

In 2016 lost to Phillips and in 2017 lost to Highland, both years were top 5 in 4A despite being one of the smallest schools in that class.. Last year not the toughest draw, but did beat the team that knocked out Wilmington.. I think a fair assessment to say they were top 5 in 3A last year, which is more a statement on 3A than Herscher.

Fair enough.....I was just asking. For what it's worth I think that 3A was weak last year and is looking to be relatively weak again this year.

 

[Coalertown44]

3A got weaker when Mac and IC got bumped up. Still good programs down there, I think its wide open. Wilmington stays healthy and gets on a roll I could see them making a run. I still want to see them against Lisle, Peotone and CC first though

 

[Wilmatucky]

3A got weaker when Mac and IC got bumped up. Still good programs down there, I think its wide open. Wilmington stays healthy and gets on a roll I could see them making a run. I still want to see them against Lisle, Peotone and CC first though

I agree about them playing some better competition. That will give a better gauge of how they should be come postseason.

My question is this.....Assuming right now Wilmo is one of the top 3 or 4 in 3a, which is where AP has them, and could very well be the case....How do you think that an average 3a team would fare against Evergreen Park or Oak Park? Or better yet how would a game with either of those two and RC look?

 

[Coalertown44]

Well RC has issues beating smaller schools. I think you could switch out WIlmo with any of the top ten 3A teams and they would have the same success against Evergreen Park and Oak Lawn.

 

[PanthersWildcats86]

3A got weaker when Mac and IC got bumped up. Still good programs down there, I think its wide open. Wilmington stays healthy and gets on a roll I could see them making a run. I still want to see them against Lisle, Peotone and CC first though

Mac didn't get "bumped" up. The Irish traded a very small senior class for a large freshman class and ended up in 4A. That said, Mac & IC, the 15-16-17 3A champs, being in 4A has watered down 3A.

Luck of the draw in the playoffs has definitely screwed Wilmington more than Herscher in the last few years. '16 Wilmo was the 9-0 4 seed in a bracket with 6 unbeatens in the north...scored as many points against IC as IC gave up in the other 4 playoff games. Easily, Wilmo is the semis or finals if in any other bracket that year away from IC. '17 Wilmo is an 8-1 8 seed, another quarters loss to IC. Other half of the north they would have gotten Byron...If the '17 IC game was at Becker, it might have been different - IC had trouble at Peotone and in the quagmire semi at Byron...

'16 Herscher was a 9-0 one seed in 4A. Lost to Phillips in the quarters. Would the Tigers have preferred Johnsburg, who beat Phillips the next week? An undefeated Belleville Althoff who lost to Rochester in the quarters? Canton was the other semifinalist, can't say I knew much about them...'17 The Tigers got crushed by Highland in the quarters. Would they have preferred Rochester, Morris or Raby?

Hmmm, '18 Wilmington beat Herscher 63-28 head to head...If the Cats pound in their two trips inside the 5 in the first half of the first round game instead of only getting 3 points, the Tigers and Cats likely meet in the quarters...Who do you think the favorite would have been? Herscher gets an unbeaten CPL team in the first round, the 2-15 game...Lisle got the screwing of the luck here, as they likely cruise to the semis in that quarter...

Reality is, Wilmington likely has runner up trophies if they are in the south bracket away from IC in 16 & 17. Herscher still has quarter losses those years no matter which quarter they are in.

 

[PanthersWildcats86]

I agree about them playing some better competition. That will give a better gauge of how they should be come postseason.

My question is this.....Assuming right now Wilmo is one of the top 3 or 4 in 3a, which is where AP has them, and could very well be the case....How do you think that an average 3a team would fare against Evergreen Park or Oak Park? Or better yet how would a game with either of those two and RC look?

RC was 2-7 last year. Week 2 they beat Chicago Brooks 46-12. Brooks made the second round of the playoffs - aided by a first round game against another CPL team...Could RC be competitive with the Oak Lawn Community team Wilmo hammered last week? Good question. Likely a decent game.

 

[DHS2018]

Mac didn't get "bumped" up. The Irish traded a very small senior class for a large freshman class and ended up in 4A. That said, Mac & IC, the 15-16-17 3A champs, being in 4A has watered down 3A.

Luck of the draw in the playoffs has definitely screwed Wilmington more than Herscher in the last few years. '16 Wilmo was the 9-0 4 seed in a bracket with 6 unbeatens in the north...scored as many points against IC as IC gave up in the other 4 playoff games. Easily, Wilmo is the semis or finals if in any other bracket that year away from IC. '17 Wilmo is an 8-1 8 seed, another quarters loss to IC. Other half of the north they would have gotten Byron...If the '17 IC game was at Becker, it might have been different - IC had trouble at Peotone and in the quagmire semi at Byron...

'16 Herscher was a 9-0 one seed in 4A. Lost to Phillips in the quarters. Would the Tigers have preferred Johnsburg, who beat Phillips the next week? An undefeated Belleville Althoff who lost to Rochester in the quarters? Canton was the other semifinalist, can't say I knew much about them...'17 The Tigers got crushed by Highland in the quarters. Would they have preferred Rochester, Morris or Raby?

Hmmm, '18 Wilmington beat Herscher 63-28 head to head...If the Cats pound in their two trips inside the 5 in the first half of the first round game instead of only getting 3 points, the Tigers and Cats likely meet in the quarters...Who do you think the favorite would have been? Herscher gets an unbeaten CPL team in the first round, the 2-15 game...Lisle got the screwing of the luck here, as they likely cruise to the semis in that quarter...

Reality is, Wilmington likely has runner up trophies if they are in the south bracket away from IC in 16 & 17. Herscher still has quarter losses those years no matter which quarter they are in.

4

First off, in 2018 when Herscher and Wilmington played, Tigers were missing their 3 best linemen and two other starters.. When the games counted and both teams were healthy, Herscher advanced and Wilmington did not.

In 2016 and 2017, Herscher was better than WIlmington.

In 2015, WIlmo beat Herscher 31-28

In 2014 when WIlmo won 3A, they beat Herscher 21-18

Last 5 years, the two programs have been very even.. Looks like next few, will not be the case.

 

[Doctor_D]

Jon, I will concede 2017, but what do you base your 2016 assessment on?

 

[Wilmatucky]

Off topic of where this thread has gone.....is it funny to you guys that the newspapers try to keep all their fan bases happy and never predict blowouts? I just read the capsules in the Daily-Journal and the CC herscher score was 42-24 in favor of CC. Although I get that the subs may be in for CC in the second half I likely see a running clock here. Why doesn't the paper just call it as it is?

 

[Coalertown44]

Off topic of where this thread has gone.....is it funny to you guys that the newspapers try to keep all their fan bases happy and never predict blowouts? I just read the capsules in the Daily-Journal and the CC herscher score was 42-24 in favor of CC. Although I get that the subs may be in for CC in the second half I likely see a running clock here. Why doesn't the paper just call it as it is?

Exactly what you said. They don't want to piss off any subscribers. It will be a rout there tomorrow night. They might get one maybe two on the CC backups

 

[PanthersWildcats86]

Off topic of where this thread has gone.....is it funny to you guys that the newspapers try to keep all their fan bases happy and never predict blowouts? I just read the capsules in the Daily-Journal and the CC herscher score was 42-24 in favor of CC. Although I get that the subs may be in for CC in the second half I likely see a running clock here. Why doesn't the paper just call it as it is?

I think the paper writes a nice bit, but looks at the game thinking CC gets up big early and pulls the starters by half...I don't picture the Coalers running it up for style points, never been their style. A 42-0 halftime score still gets the running clock...

Let us be realistic...Jezik could win the state rushing title if the Coalers were willing to humiliate intentionally the bottom of the conference (like Peoria's 90+ point game). He has 538 yards in two games against the likely two best teams they will face in the regular season. What could/will he do against Manteno's questionable run defense?

The Journal picking Manteno concerns me, as their ability to pick upsets since Soucie left is rather bad...Heck, they picked Bradley at LWE as their game of the week...there's a definite running clock by half...

 

[Wilmatucky]

I think the paper writes a nice bit, but looks at the game thinking CC gets up big early and pulls the starters by half...I don't picture the Coalers running it up for style points, never been their style. A 42-0 halftime score still gets the running clock...

Let us be realistic...Jezik could win the state rushing title if the Coalers were willing to humiliate intentionally the bottom of the conference (like Peoria's 90+ point game). He has 538 yards in two games against the likely two best teams they will face in the regular season. What could/will he do against Manteno's questionable run defense?

The Journal picking Manteno concerns me, as their ability to pick upsets since Soucie left is rather bad...Heck, they picked Bradley at LWE as their game of the week...there's a definite running clock by half...

I don't think CC's intent would be to run it up on anybody but I certainly see this being bigger than 42-24.

 

[DHS2018]

Seems like Coal City always underestimates Herscher and the games are more competitive than they expect, but I guess thats just Coal City..

As for the Journal, the BBCHS and Herscher districts are the two highest circulation rates the Journal has so they are not going to toss out 52-0 predictions

 

[Doctor_D]

Coal City 56, Herscher 13
Wilmington 47, Streator 20
Peotone 35, Reed Custer 6
Manteno 34, Lisle 21

 

[Wilmatucky]

Seems like Coal City always underestimates Herscher and the games are more competitive than they expect, but I guess thats just Coal City..

As for the Journal, the BBCHS and Herscher districts are the two highest circulation rates the Journal has so they are not going to toss out 52-0 predictions

Why not? If thats what the score is predicted to be then why not speak the truth.

And no I'm not saying that will happen tonight. But let's say '04 Wilmo vs RC or dwight or one of the clear cut mismatches.

 

[Coalertown44]

Seems like Coal City always underestimates Herscher and the games are more competitive than they expect, but I guess thats just Coal City..

As for the Journal, the BBCHS and Herscher districts are the two highest circulation rates the Journal has so they are not going to toss out 52-0 predictions

Coal City does not underestimate Herscher. But Herscher is just not up to par this season and this is one of Coal Citys best teams in a while. Truth isn't underestimation. 42-24 is a very generous score for Herscher. I don't see them scoring more than twice

 

[DHS2018]

Coal City does not underestimate Herscher. But Herscher is just not up to par this season and this is one of Coal Citys best teams in a while. Truth isn't underestimation. 42-24 is a very generous score for Herscher. I don't see them scoring more than twice

Well you are the one that said it will be a rout, so that seems to be to underestimate.. Which is fine, down year in west Kankakee County

 

[Coalertown44]

Well you are the one that said it will be a rout, so that seems to be to underestimate.. Which is fine, down year in west Kankakee County

It will be a rout. I would like to know what matchup CC took them lightly? Last year was the only time in a while CC was a favorite

 

[Wilmatucky]

Well you are the one that said it will be a rout, so that seems to be to underestimate.. Which is fine, down year in west Kankakee County

If Herscher is having a down year, then it's not being underestimated. It's calling it like it is. Now if you were saying Herscher is good and then C-town predicted a 45-7 win that is underestimating them.

 

[Coalertown44]

If Herscher is having a down year, then it's not being underestimated. It's calling it like it is. Now if you were saying Herscher is good and then C-town predicted a 45-7 win that is underestimating them.

He has a special kind of hate for the Coalers

 

[DHS2018]

He has a special kind of hate for the Coalers

Not at all, friends with several of the coaches over there.. I just laugh at the cockiness over there

 

[Coalertown44]

Not at all, friends with several of the coaches over there.. I just laugh at the cockiness over there

Funny I haven't found any coaches over here that like you

 

[CaravanMan]

I'm loving this thread so far, but, selfishly only for the fact that I want to see how long it takes before hhs/bbchs/dhs loses his mind and reveals his true self before inevitably getting the flush only to create another persona and start again.

 

[CaravanMan]

...but what is amazing is Edgy's grace towards the guy.

 

[Doctor_D]

What is DHS? Dwight? Danville? DuQuoin?