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What am I missing here: Some picks I found from Friendsoftheprogram.net

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imissplatinumplus

Redshirt
Dec 13, 2006
1,744
2
0
Miss State -6 ½ @ Auburn</p>

The Juice: Auburn. You’ll understand my confidence when Utah State upsets the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl this year.</p>

Mike Medallion: Auburn.#allin#homer</p>

Bunkie Perkins:Auburn. I would have thought the beating State gave Memphis last week would have been lost in the usual Commercial Appeal crime blotter. It instead warranted 6 1/2 against the defending national champion in their stadium.</p>

The Geek: Auburn. This is one of our recommended plays so won’t get into all the details, but we love this game. Auburn 35 Miss St 27. </p>
 
I

imissplatinumplus

Redshirt
Dec 13, 2006
1,744
2
0
Miss State -6 ½ @ Auburn</p>

The Juice: Auburn. You’ll understand my confidence when Utah State upsets the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl this year.</p>

Mike Medallion: Auburn.#allin#homer</p>

Bunkie Perkins:Auburn. I would have thought the beating State gave Memphis last week would have been lost in the usual Commercial Appeal crime blotter. It instead warranted 6 1/2 against the defending national champion in their stadium.</p>

The Geek: Auburn. This is one of our recommended plays so won’t get into all the details, but we love this game. Auburn 35 Miss St 27. </p>
 
R

Rosebowl.sixpack

Redshirt
Jul 20, 2011
163
0
0
I don't like to bet on State games, but if I were making a bet on this weekendI would take Auburn and the points all day. Auburn will be much better this week than they were last week. I almost feel like I am missing an opportunity to make easy money here, but can't go against my allegiance to the Dawgs.</p>
 
U

UpTheMiddlex3Punt

All-Conference
May 28, 2007
17,939
3,890
113
But I bet that the margin of victory (or defeat) in the first week strongly correlates with the margin of victory (or defeat) in the second week. I do not get the reasoning that says a team that struggled in week 1 will be better than a team that did well in week 1. Sure you might have some regression towards the mean, but you would have had to perform way off your average to say Auburn on average is better than State on average.
 
G

gravedigger

Redshirt
Feb 6, 2009
1,654
0
0
before the season started picked 17ing MEMPHIS to beat us.

I'd say the credibility of the scout prognosticators is about zero.
 
S

SyonaraStanz

Senior
Mar 5, 2010
3,223
583
113
Auburn will be much better this week than they were last week.
Click to expand...
Almost every argument I've heard for Auburn this week makes this statement or something similar - Auburn will be better because teams always improve from week 1 to 2. Well, why in hell does this logic not apply to State. Our game wasn't perfect; we had some glaring weaknesses. So why can we not drastically improve from week 1 to 2? Why can't ourLB's figure things out and improve? Does this improvement only apply to defending national championship programs returning few starters?

I'm nervous about this game because I have years of pessimism built up. Seeing is believing, and I won't believe we're capable of winning a "big game", until it's done. However, is beating Aubarn this year, actually a "big win"?
 
M

MedDawg

Senior
May 29, 2001
5,186
807
113
Rosebowl said:
I don't like to bet on State games, but if I were making a bet on this weekendI would take Auburn and the points all day. Auburn will be much better this week than they were last week. I almost feel like I am missing an opportunity to make easy money here, but can't go against my allegiance to the Dawgs.</p>
Click to expand...
I don't feel bad betting against the Dawgs. Most of the time I stay away from State games, but if I'm picking an MSU game, I'll usually go for the other team. If I lose the bet, I feel like I 'bought' the win for MSU, and I'm happy for the win. I'm ahead already on the season, so I don't mind giving some away on an MSU victory. I did pick MSU -27 over Memphis (last minute extra super confident pick), but this week I have Auburn +7.5. I'm hoping I lose, but if I don't, at least I'll get some money out of it. Might even win the game AND the pick if MSU wins by a TD or less. That's what happened last weekend when I took OM +3.
 
M

MedDawg

Senior
May 29, 2001
5,186
807
113
SyonaraStanz said:
Auburn will be much better this week than they were last week.
Click to expand...
Almost every argument I've heard for Auburn this week makes this statement or something similar - Auburn will be better because teams always improve from week 1 to 2. Well, why in hell does this logic not apply to State.
Click to expand...
And why can't that argument be made for Utah State? If it's common for teams to not be on top of their game in week 1, wouldn't that also apply to Utah State?
 
P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
55,861
24,805
113
that the defending national champions really are a very mediocre, maybe even a bad,football team right now. I do think they'll probably get a little better later in the season, but we really should win this game by a couple of TDs at least.
 
G

gravedigger

Redshirt
Feb 6, 2009
1,654
0
0
both the straight up and the ats records.

first listed is the straight up...(he was 2nd worst)
second list is ats he was 19-20-2 (again, 2nd worst)
 
S

studentdawg87

Redshirt
Feb 24, 2008
1,094
0
0
He spent the entire fall last year writing about how we would get in trouble for the Cam Newton ordeal.
 
R

Rosebowl.sixpack

Redshirt
Jul 20, 2011
163
0
0
The only reason I believe Auburn will improve more from week 1 to week 2 than a lot of of teams is because they start a lot of younger inexperienced players. Based on their recruiting classes over the past couple years, most of these young guys now getting to play were highly sought after recruits. In my opinion, there is a big difference between game 1 and game 2 for young guys that may have just had the first start of their careers. Every game they play they will get a little more comfortable. Honestly, I am glad we are getting them now rather than later.

On the flip side, we are a veteran team. A veteran team would be more consistent in the first game because they have been there before, thus the improvement from week 1 to week 2 would not likely be as great as a young team who is now more comfortable after getting their first starts under their belts.
 
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