What MSU & OM benefited from last year

[FreeDawg]

Is much harder this year and fans of both schools are overlooking it. We're talking Auburn and Arkansas. Everyone just thinks they will suck again. Those were teams that flat out quit last year. Lets look at some notes

Auburn
-4 year recruiting avg is 9.25. Plenty of high end talent.
-Throw out the Cam year and Malzahn's offense still averaged 30 ppt w/****** QBs @ Auburn
-Ellis Johnson SEC defenses have been really good (21 ppg avg at MSU & USC last 4 years)
-MSU & OM play them @ Auburn. MSU gets them on a 3 game home stretch (should be 2-0). OM gets them after a Bama trip and Auburn gets a bye the week before to prepare.
-Tre Mason was a 1k yard rusher
-the secondary is all back & loaded

Arkansas
-4 year recruiting average is 26.75. Far from a decimated roster
-Beilema went 68-24 at Wisconsin and 3 consecutive Rose bowls (last 3 years). Dude can coach, especially w/not elite talent
-MSU plays them @ LR. MSU has never won there.
-they return the favorite for the Rimington Trophy
-they return arguably the best DE combo in the SEC: Smith & Flowers combined (15.5 sacks, 23 TFL, & 26 QB hurries)
-great 1-2 punch at RB including the #1 HS RB from last year, Alex Collins
-top 4 WR return combined 54 rec


Im not saying MSU and OM will lose these gams but they will be 10x tougher this year. To act like these 2 programs aren't going to be refocused is stupid. There's also a sentiment that LSU will suck. Their 4 year recruiting average is 8.25 and Mett is coming to his own. My main point is the Western Division ceiling is still sky high w/Bama and A&M right under them. The floor will be raised with Auburn and Arky getting their act together. Our margins in the middle got much tighter.

 

[dawgstudent]

I honestly think Arkansas will be down again. For what Billemia(sp) is trying to run - it won't be successful initially at Arkansas. And I dare say - it won't ever be successful b/c I don't think you can run an LSU/Bama type of offense at Arkansas.

 

[FreeDawg]

I honestly think Arkansas will be down again. For what Billemia(sp) is trying to run - it won't be successful initially at Arkansas. And I dare say - it won't ever be successful b/c I don't think you can run an LSU/Bama type of offense at Arkansas.

Even if Bielema doesn't immediately make them a bowl team, they will still be much better than the John L Smith train wreck they were last year. Their key is starting 4-0. It's all their non-conference games. They open w/ULL and Hud and also get USM in game 3

 

[chew1095]

I agree 100% DS. I dont think the Billemic experiment is going to work at Arkansas. Remember, this guy was bitching about Urban's recruiting tactics in the Big 10.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Where are you getting Auburn's secondary is loaded? The whole team had two interceptions last year...TWO! And one of them was by a linebacker. The other was against Alabama A&M. It was from a safety, meaning the CBs totaled zero picks on the year. The depth chart might be filled with juniors and seniors, but this is basically the same group who gave up 220 yards a game and 20 TDs, and one of the biggest criticisms of Chizik (himself a DB coach) was the poor tackling Auburn has had the last three seasons, including the DBs. Not to mention the CBs are now coached by Melvin. I'll let you decide if Banks and Slay developed because of Melvin or in spite of him.

 

[FreeDawg]

Whitehead and McNeil are their 2 returning safeties and tackle leaders. They return all their top 4 CB's. all these guys were top prospects. Tons of talent back there. You cannot base anything on that defense last year going forward. They had absolutely quit. Ellis Johnson will have that unit 10x better.

 

[chew1095]

I dont give a damn what Whitehead was ranked in high school or that he was committed to us for a brief spell, he is terrible. I agree more with DawgatAuburn on this, there is very little about Auburn's experienced secondary that worries me, especially in light of who is coaching them. My concern with Auburn is being able to keep them from scoring.

 

[FreeDawg]

As an MSU fan that saw an Ellis Johnson led defense with half the talent, overcome a Woody McCorvey offense to the tune of an 8 win season... I'd say you are underestimating them, which is why I posted the thread

 

[chew1095]

As an MSU fan, I never underestimate anyone. We may very well lose to Auburn, but I doubt real seriously it will have anything to do with their secondary.

 

[FreeDawg]

Fair enough. For the record, Auburn's secondary being the strength of the defense isn't a unique idea by me. Pretty much every pre season preview says the same. That's where they have the most experience.

I would compare it to how bad our secondary was in '08 under DC Charlie Harbinson. Under Torbush (who I think was very avg) the next year we saw a big improvement.

 

[chew1095]

Admittedly, I have not done as much pre-season previewing as I have in recent years. I just hope to God we have whatever issues we had last year cleaned up. I got so damn sick of seeing "less talented" players trotted out there for meaningful snaps, looks of befudlement on all of our coaches faces, and the lack of effort. If you are going to preach relentless effort, you damn sure better demonstrate it.

We need an identity on defense. I want the defense to piss and **** fire. I want Nickoe to get a 15 yarder on the opening defensive series against OSU (unless it costs us). I want to get pressure with 4 DL. I want to look like we know how to cover WRs. I want to see sound tackling...

Is this asking too much? Probably so.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Chaney, Titus Brown, Kyle Love, Pegues, AJ, Dominic Douglas, Fitzhugh, etc......that was a pretty talented bunch. Ellis had a lot to work with.

 

[Heawww]

Fair enough. For the record, Auburn's secondary being the strength of the defense isn't a unique idea by me. Pretty much every pre season preview says the same. That's where they have the most experience.

So was ours last year. Without the DL it doesn't matter.

I would compare it to how bad our secondary was in '08 under DC Charlie Harbinson. Under Torbush (who I think was very avg) the next year we saw a big improvement.

Put the crack pipe down. Our secondary was HORRIBLE in 2009. I don't care what the stats say. We didn't start to get better until they inserted Banks/Broomfield halfway through the season. All I remember is Toast and Anderson running backwards down the whole field vs. LSU and Georgia Tech.

 

[FreeDawg]

Ellis had talent that year. Perhaps "half the talent" wasnt the appropriate way to phrase that. He also has talent at Auburn too. My overall point is that folks think since Auburn struggled last year, this year will be more of the same. I know how I feel about Malzahn as an OC and Jihnson as a DC. There will be big improvement

 

[seb304]

I would compare it to how bad our secondary was in '08 under DC Charlie Harbinson. Under Torbush (who I think was very avg) the next year we saw a big improvement.

Maybe my stats are wrong, but I see that we gave up 176.6 passing yards per game in 2008 (good for 4th in the conference). In 2009, we gave up 220 passing yards per game (good for 11th/12).

ETA: I see we gave up 13 TDs and had 8 INTs in '08. 18 TDs vs. 17 INTs in '09. That might account for some of the difference, but I remember our 2009 defense being fairly easy to move the ball against through the air.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

There may be some improvement, but I have never thought Ellis Johnson was anything special. He's good, but no better than dozens of other DCs. He looked good here because the rest of the team was so bad. He had very good talent to work with at USC and turned in some very good defenses there. He doesn't have near that talent at Auburn that he had at USC. We'll see how he does. I have no doubt they will be better, but I don't put the ceiling very high for them.

 

[Heawww]

^^ And this is also the guy that got on the sheep in 2009 for saying we would go to Auburn and beat them in Mullen's first year. His quote was, "They are still Auburn". And it certainly applied to the tune of a 49-24 beat down. So, I'd say he knows a little bit about the war tigers. If he says they won't be that great, it confirms my opinion that they won't be that great.

 

[Sutterkane]

Arkansas, I think we will get blown out. Yes we've never won there, but when was the last time it was even close? 2001? We've lost by 2 TDs or more every year there since.

I think the Auburn game will be another 2011 like game where we both score a lot and they wind up winning late.

 

[Shamoan]

auburn may have a 1000 yard rusher, but they dont have the type talent that traditionally expose us. no legitimate threat at qb (which diminishes the wr threat), a downgrade at rb....nobody scares me in that regard...dyer was much more of a threat, and if your best tacklers on the team are in the secondary, generally, that is not a good thing. put me in the camp that thinks we could lose to auburn, but i dont think they have a talent advantage on the field. they simply dont have they type of offensive weapons....but with the malzahn offense, that may quickly change....but that is yet to be seen and they have a massive gap to close to even make them moderately competitive.

arkansas....will struggle. hope we can get over the state of arkansas hump....if we dont do it this year, this streak will continue for a while because this arkansas team is turrble and petrino did no favors in recruiting.

 

[FreeDawg]

Petrino's last 2 years his composite ranking was 27 & 21. It's weird how there's this perception that he was a bad recruiter. He wasnt elite but not bad either. Bielema's first class was a composite 23. That's after the shambles he inherited.

 

[Shamoan]

agreed, but in the sec, if you arent pulling in top 20 classes, you get labeled as a defective recruiter. one thing that petrino did exceptionally well was get elite system guys. the offensive skill players that could run his system like clockwork and execute to his expectations. petrino largely said "screw defense, let me get a qb that can do exactly what i ask and a hand-full of wr's that can get separation and catch everything thrown their way". unfortunately, there are some guys that often get labeled as bad recruiters in our league, when in reality, they are bringing in classes far better than the school deserves...certainly historically speaking. still, this league and division are brutal, so things like that rarely get recognized. its not good enough for state to pull in a top 25 class when that places them 10th in the league and 5th or 6th in the division.

 

[121Josey]

Wrong on all accounts

There may be some improvement, but I have never thought Ellis Johnson was anything special. He's good, but no better than dozens of other DCs. He looked good here because the rest of the team was so bad. He had very good talent to work with at USC and turned in some very good defenses there. He doesn't have near that talent at Auburn that he had at USC. We'll see how he does. I have no doubt they will be better, but I don't put the ceiling very high for them.

Name me 12 other DC's that have the resumé of EJ? There are only 10 teams in the Top 10 every year and that list doesn't very much from year to year. You're crazy if you think "dozens" are better than EJ. Most of the (NLF) players mentioned above was maximized by EJ putting people in the right position and adapting his scheme (he was the one who moved Pegues to safety). Spurrier was a mid-level SEC team until EJ came. It only took them a year before they were a Top 10 defense (and this was before they started recruiting the Clowneys of the world). I'm willing to say that EJ has as much if not more talent at AU than anytime at USCe. Ya'll act like South Carolina is a recruiting wonderland equal to places like Florida, Alabama, and Louisiana.

And just because a player sucks under one coach, doesn't mean that he will not get better under the next (Relf is one example)

 

[stinkfoot]

I agree about EJ. Also, he has always had a bend but don't...

There may be some improvement, but I have never thought Ellis Johnson was anything special. He's good, but no better than dozens of other DCs. He looked good here because the rest of the team was so bad. He had very good talent to work with at USC and turned in some very good defenses there. He doesn't have near that talent at Auburn that he had at USC. We'll see how he does. I have no doubt they will be better, but I don't put the ceiling very high for them.

break defense that tends to stay on the field a while. You can move it on him but its tough to score. When you couple that with Malzahn's hurry up offense w/ a qb that can't throw, you have to believe those guys will need to be in very good shape. Plus they lost some talent and now their offense will have been hurry up, pro-set, and back to hurry up in three years, which has got to be difficult.

 

[121Josey]

auburn may have a 1000 yard rusher, but they dont have the type talent that traditionally expose us. no legitimate threat at qb (which diminishes the wr threat), a downgrade at rb....nobody scares me in that regard...dyer was much more of a threat, and if your best tacklers on the team are in the secondary, generally, that is not a good thing.

AU has one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation. The problem is that they didn't let him run. That will change under Malzahn.

Who is the downgrade at RB? Tre Mason is back - and he did rush for 1,000 yds last year in a defunct offense.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Everyone also needs to familiarize themselves with Camerson Artis-Payne. http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2013/06/espn_analyst_ranks_auburns_cam.html

 

[121Josey]

Given an average secondary, it wouldn't take AU long to be a dominate defense if they start this DL from Day 1

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[Heawww]

AU has one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation

Wow. You just continue to get worse.

The rest of your post was stupid too, but I just want to clue in on the quote above.

 

[121Josey]

Wow. You just continue to get worse.

The rest of your post was stupid too, but I just want to clue in on the quote above.

Thanks for reading. Time for meds.