Who has the more difficult remaining schedule?

[dawgstudent]

I've been hearing that we have the more difficult schedule between the two of us. I put ? where it looks like it's not a definitive win. If Ole Miss was playing Arkansas at home, it would be a definitive W but on the road - I'm still unsure. So with that being said, they have 4 questions marks. We have 2 with one more game to be played. And yes, I am biased.

10-25-14	at Louisiana State	?
11-1-14	AUBURN	?
11-8-14	PRESBYTERIAN	W
11-22-14	at Arkansas	?
11-29-14	MISSISSIPPI STATE	?

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10-25-14	at Kentucky	W
11-1-14	ARKANSAS	W
11-8-14	UT-MARTIN	W
11-15-14	at Alabama	?
11-22-14	VANDERBILT	W
11-29-14	at Ole Miss	?

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[tenureplan]

They have to play us so theirs is more difficult.

 

[Hammer Down]

@ UK is not a definitive win for us, in my opinion.

They have their toughest games at home, while we have ours on the road. They have a much easier path.

 

[dawgstudent]

I could be persuaded on the UK game for us. But the other games - there are question marks for Ole Miss if they win or lose.

 

[MadDawg.sixpack]

I agree DS but the general feeling among the bearhsharks is that LSU will be a walk in the park and Arkansas will be just as easy. Only two games left on the bearsharks schedule which will be a challenge according to Neal McReady - Auburn and MSU - both at home.

 

[cofreb]

As it stands today,

I've been hearing that we have the more difficult schedule between the two of us. I put ? where it looks like it's not a definitive win. If Ole Miss was playing Arkansas at home, it would be a definitive W but on the road - I'm still unsure. So with that being said, they have 4 questions marks. We have 2 with one more game to be played. And yes, I am biased.

10-25-14	at Louisiana State	?
11-1-14	AUBURN	?
11-8-14	PRESBYTERIAN	W
11-22-14	at Arkansas	?
11-29-14	MISSISSIPPI STATE	?

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10-25-14	at Kentucky	W
11-1-14	ARKANSAS	W
11-8-14	UT-MARTIN	W
11-15-14	at Alabama	?
11-22-14	VANDERBILT	W
11-29-14	at Ole Miss	?

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Ole Miss would be favored in all 4 (albeit by less than a TD in all but maybe Ark), while MSU would likely be a slight dog at Bama and at Ole Miss, so I guess you'd say MSU has a tougher remaining schedule, but it's really just how the homes/aways fall. Tough sledding for both of us, if either of us make it through to Atlanta, we definitely earned it.

 

[OzarkaNSW]

thats cool but Neal McReady is still a tool

 

[Reb_Among_Dogs]

OM opp MSU opp Difficulty
Auburn @Bama MSU
@Arkansas Arkansas OM
@LSU @Kentucky OM
MSU @OM MSU


Presbyterian, UT Martin, and Vandy should be auto wins, so they don't really factor in. So, it is 2-2 as far as difficulty, but MSU has 3 away games remaining, including 2 against remaining SECW contenders.

Ole Miss only has 2 away games, and both of the remaining contenders are at home.Eye-test (or human logic)-wise, MSU has a slightly more difficult remaining schedule. Even though UT Martin and Vandy are auto wins, still having 6 games left instead of 5 also adds a little bit to the difficulty.Numbers wise (from FootballOutsiders),

MSU has a tougher path to the crown LINK (that is last week's, he updates on Wednesdays). Ole Miss has 0 games that it has less than 50% probability of winning. MSU has 1 (@Bama). Plus, Ole Miss has a 70% chance of winning the Egg Bowl (by last week's numbers, it will be slightly higher this week).

 

[Coast Dawg]

10-25-14	at Louisiana State	?
11-1-14	AUBURN	?
11-8-14	PRESBYTERIAN	W
11-22-14	at Arkansas	?
11-29-14	MISSISSIPPI STATE	?

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10-25-14	at Kentucky	W
11-1-14	ARKANSAS	W
11-8-14	UT-MARTIN	W
11-15-14	at Alabama	?
11-22-14	VANDERBILT	W
11-29-14	at Ole Miss	?

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At LSU is tougher than At UK (MSU's favor by a lot)
At Ark is tougher than having Ark at home (MSU's favor)
Auburn at home is easier than at Bama (Bear's favor)
Non Conference doesn't matter... a wash
The extra game is Vandy at home (slight Bear's favor just because it is an SEC team... even though the worst one)
Egg Bowl in Oxford (Bear's favor).

So I think it is nearly the same difficulty for both.

 

[KentuckyDawg13]

Not exactly what you asked, but Bama's schedule is setup nicely for them to take the West. Sure, they play at LSU (post bye week) and home with MSU/Auburn, but the way they played Sat it may be a cakewalk for them now.

Hope I am wrong.

 

[bulldogbaja]

I've been hearing that we have the more difficult schedule between the two of us. I put ? where it looks like it's not a definitive win. If Ole Miss was playing Arkansas at home, it would be a definitive W but on the road - I'm still unsure. So with that being said, they have 4 questions marks. We have 2 with one more game to be played. And yes, I am biased.

10-25-14	at Louisiana State	60%
11-1-14	AUBURN	50%
11-8-14	PRESBYTERIAN	100%
11-22-14	at Arkansas	75%
11-29-14	MISSISSIPPI STATE	50%

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10-25-14	at Kentucky	75%
11-1-14	ARKANSAS	60%
11-8-14	UT-MARTIN	100%
11-15-14	at Alabama	40%
11-22-14	VANDERBILT	90%
11-29-14	at Ole Miss	50%

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I put percentages that either State or OM wins. If you add these up, we have an average of 69% chance to win the remaining games, and Ole Miss has an average of 67% chance.
You could argue they they are more than 50% likely to beat Auburn, or more than 60% likely to beat LSU, but that's how I see it (Auburn is a very good team, and 60% going into Death Valley at night is actually incredibly generous to the rebs, considering opponents have something like a 7% win rate there over the last few years.)

 

[dawgstudent]

So you think Ole Miss has a better chance of winning at Arkansas than State does playing Arkansas at home?

 

[bulldogbaja]

No... Not sure why that made sense...

 

[Amadden0408]

I don't get the concern with Kentucky. I've watched five of their games in part, including Florida, South Carolina, UL Monroe, Vandy, and LSU. I see a team with a weak offensive line that was dominated at times by UL Monroe and Vanderbilt, who only scored 17 points at home against Vanderbilt, and ran a gimmick offense for the majority of their yards against South Carolina. The LSU game was a bit of an anomaly considering the special teams points they gave up, but still, to give up 40 points to a team that is as one-dimensional offensively as LSU is a major issue. I think those factors combined with Collins getting 2 weeks to prepare for their gimmicky offense will add up to a dominating win. If LSU can dominate them up front like they did, then we should be able to take it to another level against them.

 

[engie]

Not exactly what you asked, but Bama's schedule is setup nicely for them to take the West. Sure, they play at LSU (post bye week) and home with MSU/Auburn, but the way they played Sat it may be a cakewalk for them now.

Hope I am wrong.

Getting MSU off LSU sets up nicely for them?

 

[Reb_Among_Dogs]

I've been hearing that we have the more difficult schedule between the two of us. I put ? where it looks like it's not a definitive win. If Ole Miss was playing Arkansas at home, it would be a definitive W but on the road - I'm still unsure. So with that being said, they have 4 questions marks. We have 2 with one more game to be played. And yes, I am biased.

10-25-14	at Louisiana State	89.2
11-1-14	AUBURN	76
11-8-14	PRESBYTERIAN	-
11-22-14	at Arkansas	93.1
11-29-14	MISSISSIPPI STATE	69.2

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10-25-14	at Kentucky	95.9
11-1-14	ARKANSAS	95.8
11-8-14	UT-MARTIN	-
11-15-14	at Alabama	65.9
11-22-14	VANDERBILT	98.6
11-29-14	at Ole Miss	30.8

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For a better reference, I put in Bill Connely's win projection numbers in the tables. As you can see, that is an average of 81.875% for Ole Miss and 77.4% for MSU.

Fan-wise, we see LSU as being, well, LSU, while the numbers see Ole Miss (and MSU) being much better than them this year. Sure, the numbers don't play the game, but it shows that really all LSU has in its favor is home field (which some argue doesn't play as big of a role as most think when the teams are not evenly matched).

 

[HueFreeze]

i'll go from this angle the vaunted landshark d ...awesome run d that has stopped the 10,13,14 ranked SEC run o is about to get test by the best 3 run o in the west ...advantage dawgs

we will beat the rebs, even more bias that ds ...advantage dawgs

death valley sat night (haven't won their since 1991, 2-21 against top 25 teams) > holy **** we number 1 in the country playing at bama ...advantage dawgs

there's only 1 thing left to do then ...win the whole 17ing thing! #majorleague

 

[patdog]

I don't get it either. I think we win something like 41-13.

 

[os62]

No... Not sure why that made sense...

^^^^ Closet Rebel fan*****

 

[johnson86-1]

Ignoring the Egg Bowl, they have more chances to lose but at Bama is probably harder than Auburn at home. I think Auburn is a better team than Bama and I still think bama may actually be a good bit weaker (not sure how much of A&M was A&M giving up) although I'm obviously less sure about that now than I was a week ago.

They can lose to LSU although I think it's unlikely. Arkransas is a dangerous game for them,. Auburn is a game where I think they would lose if they were playing away and still have a better than even chance to lose at home.

For us, I think Arkansas at home is less dangerous than LSU or Arkansas away. Bama away is probably as tough or tougher than Auburn at home.

I don't think there's any doubt though that if I had the opportunity to swap schedules with them, especially getting them at home, at this point in the season, it'd be a no brainer to take theirs.

 

[Hammer Down]

For a better reference, I put in Bill Connely's win projection numbers in the tables. As you can see, that is an average of 81.875% for Ole Miss and 77.4% for MSU.

Fan-wise, we see LSU as being, well, LSU, while the numbers see Ole Miss (and MSU) being much better than them this year. Sure, the numbers don't play the game, but it shows that really all LSU has in its favor is home field (which some argue doesn't play as big of a role as most think when the teams are not evenly matched).

MSU has a 65.9% chance of going into Tuscaloosa and winning, but yet a 30.8% of going to Oxford and winning? This Bill Connely dude is smoking crack.

No offense to you man, but we do NOT have DOUBLE the chance of beating Alabama than Ole Miss. Any rational, level headed person knows that going to Oxford will be easier than going to Tuscaloosa, for the 2014 version of Mississippi State. That's not a knock on Ole Miss, I think you guys are easily favored in that game. I just think the percentages should be swapped, then lower our percent of winning in Oxford to about 40.

 

[Hammer Down]

I don't get the concern with Kentucky.

1 - We are now the hunted.
2 - I'm certain this will be their best atmosphere of the season thus far.
3 - Our current success vs. them plus what I hear out of our camp tends to make me think we bring our C game.
4 - SEC game on the road.

Many look at UK's loss at LSU and write them off. Our players probably are doing the same, which falls into #3 above. But good teams that are building will have those games. Still doesn't mean they aren't very dangerous at home. And the difference between this game, and the Alabama/Ole Miss road games, is that I feel we will be 'up' for those games.

 

[MedDawg]

If we can't beat UK easily, then we need to stop talking about championships

and enjoy our Chick Fil A Bowl game, because there's no way we lose to UK then win at Bama and at OM, and Arkansas at home may be doubtful. By easily I mean beating UK by at least 15-20 points, not by 30-40 points.

To have a chance at Bama and at OM, our team has to be good enough to beat Kentucky easily and Arkansas fairly easily.

So THAT'S why we ignore UK in the championship talk between MSU, OM, and Auburn. And yes, our players and coaches cannot ignore UK. I'm assuming they are treating this like a difficult matchup.

 

[Reb_Among_Dogs]

MSU has a 65.9% chance of going into Tuscaloosa and winning, but yet a 30.8% of going to Oxford and winning? This Bill Connely dude is smoking crack.

No offense to you man, but we do NOT have DOUBLE the chance of beating Alabama than Ole Miss. Any rational, level headed person knows that going to Oxford will be easier than going to Tuscaloosa, for the 2014 version of Mississippi State. That's not a knock on Ole Miss, I think you guys are easily favored in that game. I just think the percentages should be swapped, then lower our percent of winning in Oxford to about 40.

He goes based strictly on numbers. So, he doesn't really care about the name of the team. The numbers tell him that Ole Miss is a much better team that Bama this year, and MSU is also a much better team than Bama.

And his numbers have been pretty spot on this season (i.e. teams with a 60%-70% chance of winning are winning 62% of the time, etc for the other ranges).

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Getting to the Egg Bowl, I think both teams can expect about the same number of wins. Presbyterian and UTM are 99% wins, as is Vanderbilt. At Kentucky for us and at Arkansas for UM are probably about the same odds. That leaves Arkansas and at Alabama for us, and Auburn and at LSU for UM. We'll be a large favorite, but not a lock, over Arkansas and an underdog against Bama. Let's say 75% against Arkansas and 40% against Bama. I'd say that UM is a 60% favorite over LSU and a 55% favorite over Auburn. You'd get the same number of expected wins, 1.15, for each team, but we only have a 30% chance of coming out of those two games undefeated whereas UM would have a 33% chance of coming out of both of their games undefeated. In other words, it's better to play two games where you're favored a little than to play one game where you're a big favorite and one where you're an underdog.

In the end, though, the Egg Bowl being in Oxford means we have the harder path.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

Those numbers are skewed pretty badly. I'd take the underdogs in every one of those games, save Vandy, without thinking twice if anyone gave me those odds.

 

[patdog]

He goes based strictly on numbers.

One thing people always seen to overlook when looking at a computer-based ranking system. The system is only as good as the formula behind it. And in a lot of cases, that formula is ********. Garbage In Garbage Out.

 

[Hammer Down]

He goes based strictly on numbers. So, he doesn't really care about the name of the team.

That is my point. He needs to introduce a little common sense into his numbers, then he'll have something. The only time the numbers will mean anything is after the entire season. And even then, you can really only get good comparisons within conferences, where the competition was mostly equal.

I like to use numbers to confirm or deny my eyeball test/gut feeling. Just gives you another wavelength in which to ponder.

 

[Reb_Among_Dogs]

Those numbers are skewed pretty badly. I'd take the underdogs in every one of those games, save Vandy, without thinking twice if anyone gave me those odds.

So you'd take Kentucky, Arkansas, and Bama over MSU?

 

[o_1984Dawg]

At the odds reflected by those percentages? Absolutely.

95.8%? That's better than 20 to 1 odds for UK and Arkansas. You'd have to be crazy not to lay money on either of them to beat us if someone gave you those odds.

66% would put Bama at 2 to 1 in Tuscaloosa. Easy bet there too.

To beat OM based on those whack numbers, you're looking at 9 to 1 for LSU, 3 to 1 for Auburn, 13 to 1 for Ark, and 2 to 1 for State. Same story.

 

[Reb_Among_Dogs]

At the odds reflected by those percentages? Absolutely.

95.8%? That's better than 20 to 1 odds for UK and Arkansas. You'd have to be crazy not to lay money on either of them to beat us if someone gave you those odds.

66% would put Bama at 2 to 1 in Tuscaloosa. Easy bet there too.

To beat OM based on those whack numbers, you're looking at 9 to 1 for LSU, 3 to 1 for Auburn, 13 to 1 for Ark, and 2 to 1 for State. Same story.

Those aren't equivalent to betting odds.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

Sure they are. Doesn't account for the juice but it's pretty close. Your guy's numbers are way off.

If you want a different view, here's a table correlating point spreads with winning percentage. State and OM are 14 and 3.5 point favorites this weekend, respectively. 14 pt favorites win 85.1% of the time and 3.5 pt favorites a whopping 60.6%. Compared to your 95.9% and laughable 89.1%. That's a big difference.

 

[TBone.sixpack]

That is how I feel about it as well. Everyone is looking for a reason to replace us now. Have a bye week and a strong Bama showing and we are no longer the team playing the est football in voters eyes. Hell even Mariotta jumped Dak. Lose to UK and this magical ride is over.

 

[Reb_Among_Dogs]

Sure they are. Doesn't account for the juice but it's pretty close. Your guy's numbers are way off.

"My guy" is the one behind S&P+.