Why did Conner Powers drop so low in the draft?

[fishwater99]

Looks like he would have made more money by going pro last year.. Anyone?

 

[Todd4State]

because he forfeited his draft leverage by coming back as a senior.

His choices at this point are to sign with the Padres, or an Indy ball team.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

?

 

[KurtRambis4]

is in what kind of money he gets. His staying longer really doesn't change his draft spot.

 

[Todd4State]

Because they can draft you lower and thus offer you less money and teams know that you are not likely to sit out a whole year, and they get a quality player "below slot".

That's why most people either leave after high school or after three years of college- because in most cases that's the best offer that they are going to get.

Now, if you are a junior and you are drafted in say, the 45th round, coming back to school probably would benefit you. Basically, Conner was gambling that he would have a huge year, and be a top 10 round pick, and it didn't happen even though he had a very good year.

 

[patdog]

A senior's 100% signabilty status (and on the cheap) makes him if anything a higher draft pick, not a lower one. No team is going to wait to take a player they want becuase there are 29 other teams thatcould take him before that team drafts again. What round you draft a player in has nothing at all to do with what you have to offer him. In almost every case, college seniors get about 1/2 the signing bonus that non-seniors drafted just before and just after them get. Teams don't wait to draft seniors, they go ahead and draft them and then lowball them, knowing the player has no other option.

 

[paindonthurt_]

[No message]

 

[bill brasky.sixpack]

Mississippi State first baseman Connor Powers was an 11th-round pick last year and had a better season for the Bulldogs in 2010, yet he dropped 10 rounds to the 21st round. It's just the worst profile to have, it seems, to be perceived as a stiff, righthanded-hitting, righthanded-throwing first baseman. Powers' lack of defensive tools mitigates his power, as he hit 46 homers the last three seasons, including 16 in his .379/.483/.696 2010 season.

And there you have it, should have signed last year.

 

[paindonthurt_]

[No message]

 

[bill brasky.sixpack]

A senior signs for 2000 dollars unless they are drafted in the first round, and being a Senior doesn't hurt your draft stock, the reason Powers fell in the draft are for the reasons outlined above.

 

[Todd4State]

A senior's 100% signabilty status (and on the cheap) makes him if anything a higher draft pick, not a lower one. No team is going to wait to take a player they want becuase there are 29 other teams thatcould take him before that team drafts again. What round you draft a player in has nothing at all to do with what you have to offer him. In almost every case, college seniors get about 1/2 the signing bonus that non-seniors drafted just before and just after them get. Teams don't wait to draft seniors, they go ahead and draft them and then lowball them, knowing the player has no other option.

why so many college juniors were drafted in the first 10 rounds? Teams have to weigh a lot of things when they draft someone. If there is a junior that is a good player, that they really want and they are afraid that someone else will draft them, they will take them. To get a player that they really, really want- like a Corey Dickerson- they will draft them high because a lot of players like that will just go to college, and teams aren't going to waste a pick on someone that they aren't going to sign. That's why they research signability. Also, remember that a lot of college seniors do not have as high an upside as many college seniors, hence they had to come back. Teams also weigh how much they want to pay a player. If they draft a senior too high, then they risk having to pay more for that player. And they don't want to do that either. It's a lot easier to lowball someone when you can say- "Well, Conner, we know that we drafted you in the 26th round, but we feel like you're an 11th round guy, so we'll pay you like an 11th round pick"- and they'll figure out what the lowest paid 11th round guy is, and they'll pay him whatever that is.

Because remember- all of these players have agents now, and they're all trying to get as much as they can for their client as well.

It all comes down to money.

 

[Todd4State]

about it.

 

[patdog]

How many of those juniors do you see go back to school? Almost none. And it's pretty damn easy to lowball a senior who has no options no matter what round you draft him in. You can look it up. Signing bonuses for seniors average about 1/2 the going rate for whatever round they're drafted in. Seniors literally get lowballed every time. And I mean every single time. If teams were waiting to draft seniors instead of going ahead and drafting them and then lowballing, you'd see exactly the opposite. You'd see seniors getting the going rate for the round they were drafted in.

 

[Steakonastick]

i think alot of it is, the older you get and the longer you play your overal ceiling lowers. They have seen what you can do, and the more games they see the more likely they are to project you. and you stuck having to sign pretty much what ever they offer. I also think what hurt conner was his power numbers during sec games this year were not great. Seems he killed pitching before the sec but was average during the sec. You gotta think how many 6'2 230 pound right handed first basemen there are with good power numbers but not great. also its hard to make it big playing first base unless your a sure fire stud. Its the easiest postion to move somebody to if they can hit but are a defensive liability at their position.

 

[Todd4State]

How many of those juniors do you see go back to school? Almost none. And it's pretty damn easy to lowball a senior who has no options no matter what round you draft him in. You can look it up. Signing bonuses for seniors average about 1/2 the going rate for whatever round they're drafted in. Seniors literally get lowballed every time. And I mean every single time. If teams were waiting to draft seniors instead of going ahead and drafting them and then lowballing, you'd see exactly the opposite. You'd see seniors getting the going rate for the round they were drafted in.

I don't understand what point you're arguing about because I've already said that seniors that go back to school usually aren't as good a lot of times, and I am saying that they get lowballed. One reason TO draft a senior lower is TO lowball them.

 

[patdog]

One reason TO draft a senior lower is TO lowball them.

You'd be an idiotto wait to draft a senior to get him in a lower round so you can lowball him. Because some other team will draft him in the round he belongs in and lowball him anyway. Connor Powers wasn't drafted in the 21st round because he was a senior. He was drafted in the 21st round because MLB had him pegged as a 21st round prospect. He'll get offered about 1/2 what the 21st round juniors will be offered.

 

[fishwater99]

is in what kind of money he gets. His staying longer really doesn't change his draft spot.

He sure did drop in the draft this year compared to last..

 

[o_1984Dawg]

The logic just doesn't work. You're making it seem like the Padres just called dibs and everyone else just had to let him slide to the 21st round. Nobody's going to negotiate with a senior by telling him they think he was 15 rounds better than he was drafted. They'll say you're a 21st rounder. Here's what 21st rounders get. Take it or wait a year. And he'll take it. No choice.

 

[KurtRambis4]

he dropped was because of the other people in the draft, not because he was a senior.

 

[Todd4State]

One reason TO draft a senior lower is TO lowball them.

You'd be an idiotto wait to draft a senior to get him in a lower round so you can lowball him. Because some other team will draft him in the round he belongs in and lowball him anyway. Connor Powers wasn't drafted in the 21st round because he was a senior. He was drafted in the 21st round because MLB had him pegged as a 21st round prospect. He'll get offered about 1/2 what the 21st round juniors will be offered.

but they have to make the player feel like they are getting a good deal. That's all I'm saying. Because both sides are trying to get the best deal possible- which means that the Padres want Powers as cheaply as possible, and Powers wants the best deal for himself. So, the Padres are going to make it look like he is getting a good deal- and telling them that they are paying above slot for him is one way of doing it. That's the key- they're "telling him"- that doesn't mean it's true.

I'm not saying that MLB teams draft seniors just to lowball- honestly, they lowball just about everyone- or just because they are seniors. Those are but two of the many factors that go into it. It's a big picture thing. Teams draft college juniors and high schools seniors higher because they know that they have to offer them more money because of their leverage. That's why they spend higher picks on them- because if they're going to offer a guy more money, and it's a really good player that a team really wants, you might as well spend a high pick on them. They do draft seniors lower because there is much less risk because teams do not want to waste draft picks in the middle rounds that they are going to have to fight to sign. Drafting a guy like Conner Powers in the 21st round is a whole lot safer than drafting Daryl Norris and having to overpay to sign him.

And I am being very general here- there are cases where guys do increase their draft position- but that's the general idea.

I hope that cleared some things up.

 

[Todd4State]

The logic just doesn't work. You're making it seem like the Padres just called dibs and everyone else just had to let him slide to the 21st round. Nobody's going to negotiate with a senior by telling him they think he was 15 rounds better than he was drafted. They'll say you're a 21st rounder. Here's what 21st rounders get. Take it or wait a year. And he'll take it. No choice.

but that's not what I meant. Let me say this- regarding seniors and calling dibs- these teams also run the risk of losing a senior if they wait too long and they may lose a player that they really like. It's no different than any other draft. That is the risk that they take and it could blow up in their face.

I do agree that it is likely that he will take whatever the Padres offer, but there will still be some negotiating going on. It won't be a knock out drag out into Sept thing, but some negotiating nonetheless. I read about a Cardinals draft pick that sat out a year after being drafted in the 22nd round and re-entered the draft this year, and he got drafted 10 rounds lower. I'm not saying that is a normal thing to have happen or that is what Conner will do, but while these players don't have the leverage of college juniors, they do have options- not great ones, but options nonetheless.

And before someone says it- yes, Conner would be a fool to not sign with them.