Why does SPACEX do the things it does?
- Thread starter firegiver
- Start date
I don’t have time to watch 44 minutes but ….
Do you remember how long it took Amzn to be profitable? I don’t, but it was 15-20years. Lots of analysts thought it would go bankrupt. Is that the point of the video?
Guest
Try 9 years. You really should listen more and talk less.
Secondary offering, but yes. He’s doing this because he needs to inflate the valuations because he has so much leverage across all his businesses. In particular he is falling behind on Xai which is generating very little revenue and he needs to keep borrowing. The circular financing of AI is child’s play compared to his portfolio. Teslas bubble popping would literally break him.
The banks will happily accommodate this because they want his dealflow so keep him in good graces. Other investors will do a bad deal because they want access to his dealflow. Space x will be a massive IPO if it ever goes public, but good luck getting a $800B valuation at IPO.
It will probably double that at IPO.
I don't think the whole SpaceX will IPO, I think they will spin off Starlink. Starlink generates about $13B a year in cash flow as it is right now. Has a lot of room to grow.
If you think Xai is bad check out ChatGPT!
Double? You are crazy. Outside of Aramco, which trades on the Saudi exchange, the largest IPO of all time was Alibaba at $167B.
Starlink had $2B in recurring rev last year and got to CF break even this year. It grew 94% last year (reportedly).
Open AI will be over $20B in recurring rev by end of year, which was almost 4x the previous year.
Xai is approx $350M in recurring revenue, up from $100M last year.
Sorry you were right i meant revenue not cash flow.
Revenue this year expected to be $13 - $15 Billion from Starlink. Should hit 10 million subscribers in the spring.
If the whole SpaceX, and not just Starlink, were to IPO today I would not be shocked if it doubled. The Elon premium is real. It would also probably cause Tesla to sell off some imo.
I think they will spin Starlink off mid to late next year.
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They already said they are targeting a 2H26 IPO. He probably wants to get liquidity before the Dems take over congress and start investigating him.
Nice that all the dems want to do is slow things down. I think that is one of the main reasons that they won't win going forward. Bet against Elon at your own peril.
Nevertheless, Elon is on the up and up so it won't matter.
Space data centers will be necessary to power AI. Either that or modular nuclear reactors. Probably both.
We are in for a hell of a ride over the next 10-20 years. Exciting future.
We are in for a hell of a ride over the next 10-20 years. Exciting future.
SpaceX said they'd be landing people on the Moon this year. If Nasa had these types of failures, they'd have been shut down by congress.
SpaceX is buying FLEETS of CyberTrucks. XAi is buying FLEETS of CyberTrucks. Its circular accounting... of course he's using more accounting tricks to inflate the valuation of SpaceX so that he can sell the shares to his other companies. Wheres the actual revenue folks?
SpaceX is buying FLEETS of CyberTrucks. XAi is buying FLEETS of CyberTrucks. Its circular accounting... of course he's using more accounting tricks to inflate the valuation of SpaceX so that he can sell the shares to his other companies. Wheres the actual revenue folks?
100% people are still waiting on their roadsters, people are still waiting on their semi's.... hyperloop anyone? Dude talks a huge amount of bull ****.
SpaceX had plans to launch rockets on the HOUR. It can barely reuse rockets after 3 months. It can't achieve what it was contracted to do by t he US government as it pertains to moon missions and it will never get to Mars at this pace. Their methodolgies (agile bs fail fast) has never worked in the space industry and it will continue to have issues. They took existing Nasa technologies off the shelf and launched their satellites to LOW orbit. But actually launching TONS to orbit? They've never done it with starship. Starship1 was supposed to launch 50 tons, its done none. Starship 3 was supposed to launch 200 tons to orbit, it can't even get to orbit..... I recommend people look into the actual proposed mission plans for their moon mission. Its dumb. Launch a rocket to refuel a rocket... which means refueling in space... which hasn't been done before with rocket fuel....
They are 3 years behind on their timeline and just pushed it out another 2-3.
Eh, Astranis will eat into its starlink biz.
Well nasa went to the moon in the 60’s and can’t figure out how to get back. Elon and SpaceX are the best.
I asked an industry expert about this (Zuck pays this guy to advise on their data center strategy), and he laughed at how ridiculous this premise is. His response was that there is plenty of cold weather in Canada if we need to find some place for a data center. He similarly laughed at the idea of having data centers under water.
Photonics and other technologies will address these issues far better than training astronauts to maintain data centers.
Plenty of cold weather, sure. 24-hour sunlight with no clouds, i don't think so (surprised an industry expert would dismiss this?). Of course, in the winter months Canada barely gets any sunlight at all. In space you get 24 hour sunlight that is much stronger and you don't have to worry about cooling. And supposedly it will be much cheaper.
Additioanlly, there are now several companies other than SpaceX saying this will be the future, including google, amzn, msft, openAI, and NVDA.
Astronauts will not be needed to maintain the data centers. Supposedly they will require very little maintenance. And if they do require maintenance I would think robots could do it.
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is this a troll? It has to be right? Because anyone, who's ever worked with a data center knows, you sometimes have to physically attend to the data center. Parts fail.
This data center in space would be the most costly data center ever created. Why? because 30% more sunshine? Isn't there someone here with some common sense on data centers who can weigh in here? I've worked for years in them.
We went to the moon half a dozen times, but haven't been back since because our elected leaders didn't see any value in returning. It has nothing to do with not being able to "figure out how to get back."
Yeah, the people who have solved self-driving cars, landing rockets the size of multi-story buildings on boats the size of a raft in the middle of the ocean, building data centers in record time, should surely be dismissed by people who have worked in data centers for a few years.
Many of our elected leaders don't know what a woman is. I don't think your argument is saying what you think it is.
Solar is not a great solution for powering a data center. Maybe it works in space, but you would need specialized PV and someone to maintain them.
The colder the weather, the less energy you need for cooling. But geothermal and nuclear are far more sensible options than trying to put a data center in space. It’s a waste of resources to even try this.
They haven’t solved self-driving cars (Waymo has ftr) but yes, and while landing the rocket was an incredible feat, the reality is that the parts arent as reusable as musk would like to think.Yeah, the people who have solved self-driving cars, landing rockets the size of multi-story buildings on boats the size of a raft in the middle of the ocean, building data centers in record time, should surely be dismissed by people who have worked in data centers for a few years.
And the only reason he built his data center in record time is because he broke laws by not getting permits and violating environmental requirements. Thats not innovation.
They have indeed solved self driving cars. I just used it about 10 minutes ago. Exited my driveway, drove to the kids school, and returned home into the driveway while pushing one button. It's done. I won't argue that point any longer. I see it and use it daily, it's done.
I find it funny that people dismiss the space data centers. It's been said the calculations are there by multiple credible people aside from Musk. You know, people who have accomplished things like Bezos and Huang. In addition to multiple other credible people. The calculations are there, the physics are there, the engineering is there. It will happen. Maybe not in 3 years, i'll give you that much, but it will easily happen during my lifetime. Probably less than 10 years.
Yes, I think our leaders made a massive mistake cutting space funding. You'll never see me arguing against the benefits of space exploration/etc. It's the next logical leap of mankind and I think if we had spent the last 50 years actively pursuing it (both privately and publicly), then we'd probably already have a base on the moon and have probably walked on Mars.
I see your point and am not arguing you are wrong, but when they cut NASA funding we made some pretty giant leaps. It probably ushered in making reusable rockets reality at a minimum.
Well, they don't have self driving cars, not full self driving.Yeah, the people who have solved self-driving cars, landing rockets the size of multi-story buildings on boats the size of a raft in the middle of the ocean, building data centers in record time, should surely be dismissed by people who have worked in data centers for a few years.
They didn't land a rocket the size of 'multi-story' building on a raft in the middle of the ocean. The falcon 9 is 12 feet tall.
Also, they took that tech from Nasa. They did it in the 70s. Not the 'on the raft' part. But the rest they did a long time ago.
Anyway, we know you like to sand bag because of all the 'great things' musk has been associated with, but yes, this is objectively stupid. Just like SpaceX's refueling stage plan for travel. Because, it will be expensive and things will go wrong.
Which NASA funding cut? The biggest cut came before we even landed on the moon, but it was around ~1975 it went below 1% of our national budget, and never rose above it again, iirc, and has currently gotten down to around .30-.40% of our budget. Personally, I think we need a healthy combination of public support/money as well as private investment to see the best gains in space exploration. THAT, I think, is one of the biggest reasons we have reusable rockets right now. Gov't funding to allow a private entity to roll the dice and spend on R&D is the safest path forward, imo.
They do have full self driving cars, you just don't know it yet. I'm done arguing that point, I use it everyday. Just because you don't acknowledge it doesn't mean it's not there.
Hate Musk all you want. China is already doing it as posted above. Bezos is in on it. Huang is in on it. Nadella is in on it. Page and Brin are in on it. So forgive me if I dismiss your findings. I'm going with the smart people.
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