Almost double. Lucky guess I suppose.
Multiple sources. Waiting for Elon to confirm or deny
Last edited:
Why does SPACEX do the things it does?
- Thread starter firegiver
- Start date
Multiple sources. Waiting for Elon to confirm or deny
Yeah... Fatpiggy has a long history of making bets then not paying up. His current username came about when he lost a bet as Olefastball and changed his name rather than paying up.
Data centers, in space, only make sense if its serving a functionality that cannot be done here on earth.
The costs, again, make NO SENSE. Saving on energy? Pfft how much do you think it costs to put that equipment into orbit?
I assure you they have done the cost analysis. It’s not like Fatpiggy is coming up with the numbers.
and what are the numbers on the cybertruck?
Where are we with SpacX manned mission to the moon?
How about we weigh those numbers against what is being said. At no point have I heard an argument that actually makes any sense.
The cybertruck doesn’t sell great, but that is irrelevant to this conversation.
SpaceX manned mission to the moon? I won’t pretend to know. Maybe it’s behind schedule, but at the same time they are ahead of almost everyon else. Maybe one other company is competitive with them. But competition is good.
Those ideas are irrelevant to space data centers. You are arguing against me, I get it because I’m presenting the argument, but im not the one making g the calculations. I could easily say “what about Starlink ?” Starlink is easily the most important because it pays the bills and it is a smashing success. Don’t leave those numbers out of your weighting. Cybertruck would have a very small weighting compared to Starlink. You don’t have to get a home run on everything, even the very best batters bat around .350
I’m just relaying the message that very bright people, much brighter than us combined, say that this is probably going to be the solution.
On the surface, to my simple mind, it makes sense to me.
We don’t have enough energy on earth for the data centers. Their calculations say it’s going to be better to do it in space. I won’t pretend to know if they are right or wrong (Musk,Bezos, Huang, Natella et al) but I would expect they have done the calculations to know that it is viable. I agree nothing is guaranteed and there is of course risk to everything.
edit: I suppose nuclear may be better but it’s 1) far riskier 2) time consuming and 3) probably more expensive
Last edited:
you are making my point for me. My point being that Musk says a lot of ********.
Not good news for TSLA. TSLA trades around 200X FWD earnings and a lot of that is the Elon premium. Now that there is another vehicle to carry the Elon premium, perhaps a more exciting vehicle, it will be hard for TSLA to maintain the 200X fwd earnings.
For this reason i have exited almost all of my TSLA position.
For this reason i have exited almost all of my TSLA position.
Because Elon exaggerates(lies) as often as he speaks.
If you have any faith in his announcements you are going to be very disappointed.
ahem.... don't look behind the curtain
SpaceX’s Satellites Are Falling From the Sky Every Single Day
If Starlink continues scaling up operations, there could be as many as five of these satellites raining down on us daily.
www.popularmechanics.com
No one has said it couldn’t work. It’s just stupid to even try. Even dumber than putting data centers in the ocean.
Maybe that's why SpaceX will IPO at $1.5 trillion. Will present a good short opportunity for you.
Fools are determined to be fools. Trying to stope them from being so is futile. - Elon
It's like he is speaking directly to you and firegiver.
Totally wrong. He needs the cash to fund X ai because he can’t raise enough money for it to compete with OpenAI Anthropic and Google.
Notice that Twitter is amplifying all his sycophants. And those sycophants receive money from engagement. It’s like your boy Tim Pool. He will say whatever Russia wants his to say as long as those checks keep coming in.
Dude, you were just amplifying the guy who was dead wrong yesterday. You were dead wrong on the Tim Pool thing.
Well fool me once right?
"We will have FSD cars by the end of 2017. Im confident" Elon Musk
"We are building the new roadster NOW" Elon Musk 2017
"The cybertruck can withstand a bomb"
"Tesla Semi trucks will be more cost effective than rail" Elon Musk
"We will build a hyperloop from vegas to LA" **** became a fuckign tunnel people drive you through in cars... and its a 1 mile tunnel. https://www.popsci.com/technology/hyperloop-test/
and on... and on... and on...
https://www.maxim.com/rides/elon-mu...ctually-fly-and-hit-60-mph-in-under-1-second/
Now he says it will fly....
jesus guys... this dude's full of ****.
FSD - He was wrong on the timeline. Same with roadster. But it is done now so i will give him leeway.
But you are almost as bad.
He never said cybertruck can withstand a bomb
He never said that about trucks and rail
and he never said he was going to build a hyperloop.
If I am wrong, please provide the direct quote where he said it so i can be corrected.
His timelines are off, and i forgive him for that. I am willing to look past his timelines not always being dead on. The feats he has accomplished are worth giving him leeway on the timeline.
So he may be a little late on space data centers but you an bet your bottom dollar they will happen.
But you are almost as bad.
He never said cybertruck can withstand a bomb
He never said that about trucks and rail
and he never said he was going to build a hyperloop.
If I am wrong, please provide the direct quote where he said it so i can be corrected.
His timelines are off, and i forgive him for that. I am willing to look past his timelines not always being dead on. The feats he has accomplished are worth giving him leeway on the timeline.
So he may be a little late on space data centers but you an bet your bottom dollar they will happen.
That has nothing to do with musk and his cons, but since you brought it up….
Tim Pool's Claim of Shots Fired at His House Can't Be Substantiated, Cops Say
Conservative commentator Tim Pool says someone opened fire on his West Virginia home last week ... but, we've spoken to police, and they say they can't corroborate his story.
www.tmz.com
This guy's only a PhD in machine learning. Where as fatpiggy quote tweets fanboys.
The fanboys like Bezos, Huang, Pinchar, Musk. Those fanboys have never done anything and probably messed up their calculations
Bezos has never built anything so he probably has no idea.
It's clear to me, that when MOST of your money is tied up in stocks, that it because VERY lucrative to hype up pie in the sky goals and pretend that its totally going to happen. Thus the stocks go up, thus you can get bigger loans for doing more things.
Watched the whole thing and he has some interesting points. But he does not say it won't work, he just points out the engineering challenges. And at the end (16:05) he says "I have a long history of consistently choosing the wrong tech companies to work for and missing the big boat, so you probably shouldn't trust everything i say"
He does a good job of illustrating the problems and it is a good video. Thanks for sharing.
Another analysis that comes to the conclusion:
"Here's the headline result: it's not obviously stupid, and it's not a sure thing. It's actually more reasonable than my intuition thought! If you run the numbers honestly, the physics doesn't immediately kill it, but the economics are savage. It only gets within striking distance under aggressive assumptions, and the list of organizations positioned to even try that is basically one.
That "basically one" point matters. This isn't about talent. It's about integration. If you have to buy launch, buy buses, buy power hardware, buy deployment, and pay margin at every interface, you never get there. The margin stack and the mass tax eat you alive. Vertical integration isn't a nice-to-have. It's the whole ballgame."
This analysis concludes you must be vertically integrated to make it make sense. SpaceX and Blue Origin come to mind.
Economics of Orbital vs Terrestrial Data Centers
"Here's the headline result: it's not obviously stupid, and it's not a sure thing. It's actually more reasonable than my intuition thought! If you run the numbers honestly, the physics doesn't immediately kill it, but the economics are savage. It only gets within striking distance under aggressive assumptions, and the list of organizations positioned to even try that is basically one.
That "basically one" point matters. This isn't about talent. It's about integration. If you have to buy launch, buy buses, buy power hardware, buy deployment, and pay margin at every interface, you never get there. The margin stack and the mass tax eat you alive. Vertical integration isn't a nice-to-have. It's the whole ballgame."
This analysis concludes you must be vertically integrated to make it make sense. SpaceX and Blue Origin come to mind.
Economics of Orbital vs Terrestrial Data Centers
He says clearly in the opening he thinks they will fail.
Lets be honest, this isn't door dash, this is space computers. And for all the reasons he stated, its extermely unlikely the math makes sense. Remember, this is all predicated on future technology... Spaceshp hasn't carried ANY WEIGHT into low earth orbit, let along 100 tons.
The high earth orbit required, would mean the solar panels will fail quickly due to radiation. The cooling system will require energy, it wont be passive, and the GIANT monstrocity of array of panels will need a thruster system to maintain its orbit. Theres so many reasons why this complex feat will fail.
I'd compare it to the hyperloop. On the back of the napkin after a couple pints it sounds good. But when you actually realize how DANGEROUS it is and how prone to failure it will be, people back off. Hyperloop raised a lot of money and all these same people you are saying are 'experts' and have 'done the numbers', well they lost millions on the hyperloop. Which is officially a dead project now.
12:18 - "Do they have enough margins to make this viable? That's a good question."
13:00 - "That's not to say this can't happen, I'm just saying they need to think about scale if they are going to beat the data centers on the Earth."
13:40 - "This is largely predicated on current AI technology, maybe something changes."
14:35 - "I don't want you to take away from this I'm super negative on the whole thing because i would really like to see a future with space industry happening."
15:55 -"Would I invest in a company like Lumen Orbit, probably not because of the time scale for their work is too long"
He may say in the open he things they will fail (Lumen Orbit) but he sure has a lot of qualifiers as I have pointed out above. He is also only talking about Lumen Orbit and not a SpaceX or Blue Origin who have different cost structures.
As far as failure goes you point out a couple of projects that have failed (so far). Hyperloop failed but so did a Gaving Newsomes high speed rail project. But what about all the projects that have not failed? Self driving cars? (Waymo since you hate Tesla) Reuseable rockets? Satellite internet? Humanoids? Failure is OK. Shoot for the stars and you may land on the moon.
13:00 - "That's not to say this can't happen, I'm just saying they need to think about scale if they are going to beat the data centers on the Earth."
13:40 - "This is largely predicated on current AI technology, maybe something changes."
14:35 - "I don't want you to take away from this I'm super negative on the whole thing because i would really like to see a future with space industry happening."
15:55 -"Would I invest in a company like Lumen Orbit, probably not because of the time scale for their work is too long"
He may say in the open he things they will fail (Lumen Orbit) but he sure has a lot of qualifiers as I have pointed out above. He is also only talking about Lumen Orbit and not a SpaceX or Blue Origin who have different cost structures.
As far as failure goes you point out a couple of projects that have failed (so far). Hyperloop failed but so did a Gaving Newsomes high speed rail project. But what about all the projects that have not failed? Self driving cars? (Waymo since you hate Tesla) Reuseable rockets? Satellite internet? Humanoids? Failure is OK. Shoot for the stars and you may land on the moon.
Honestly would be a much better bet to invest the capital in quantum computing instead of space data centers. But musk is an engineer at heart and will always want to do what’s cool instead of what makes the most money.