Will it Be the Skyhawks again?
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I honestly don't know... They do have pieces in place with many returning and some newcomers filling the void of those leaving but it's so hard to continue the dominance they have over the last two years... I think two teams that could challenge them this year in what was the Central Region are Hermitage and Manchester.
It is still real early, I'm not too sure about Varina ( of course they are 6A) this coming year but, I think Highland Springs (returns a lot!) will be in the mix again too! The only big question mark with HSHS will be who replaces DJ at QB and I hear there is one that could be throwing darts to some REAL GOOD ones in the backfield.....Don't count out Meadowbrook either (real young this past year).
Question for you guys? If you do not consider some other team getting significantly better this season, will Bird have what it takes to 3-peat? Basically I am asking, do they have quality replacements for the seniors and leaders they are losing? Like em or not, it's obvious they have the coaching to do it again.
I think it's too much to expect any school to repeat. That being said, the defending state champion is always at the top of my list of most likely team to win the state title.
My logic goes like this: There are about 56 teams per division in Virginia. If football wins were pure chance, we'd expect a team to repeat once every 56 state championship games. The actual number is more like 1 out of 6. So the defending state champion is 10 times more likely to win the state championship than your average team. I think you'd be hard pressed to find another statistic that correlates that highly. It's actually a pretty solid bet if you bet that at least one of the six will repeat in a given year.
If you have won two in a row, the probability that you win make it three is pretty good, too. It's actually like 1 in 5. If you win three in a row the probability you make it 4 is 50%.
All that being said, you're still talking about Bird (or any state champion) being much more likely to not repeat than to repeat. So, I think it would be foolish for anyone to say Bird should win the title, but I also think it'd be foolish not to make them an early favorite, along with several other schools that are consistent winners. I think it's about time a Stafford County school breaks through and wins one. I also like some of the schools just North of Richmond. You know the best teams out of southeast Virginia will be able to play. No reason to think Briar Woods is going away, either.
If anyone wants to know the scuttlebutt I'm hearing...it's that Bird has all the holes plugged with talent, I trust my sources, but it's hard for me to believe. Last year's Bird team had more pure athletic talent than any team I've seen them with. They just didn't have a weak guy on the field anywhere. I find it hard to believe they can replace that level of talent, so we'll see. I will say that they think they've got another great QB for next year.
Winning a state championship is HARD. I've been with programs in various sports over the years that I thought had a chance and it was never to be. No matter how talented you are, no matter how great your coach, or wonderful your program, or brilliant your scheme, it's all gotta go right. If you're not deep, an injury or two does you in. Coach's wife files for divorce and suddenly you're genius offensive coordinator is distracted. Kids move away, quit playing football because somebody told them to focus on basketball, etc. etc.
The expected wins formula Rod Johnson and I came up with last year, which actually did a pretty admirable job as a preseason predictor says these are the top twelve teams for next year.
13.03 Lloyd C. Bird
12.90 Briar Woods
11.32 Stone Bridge
10.16 Hermitage
9.87 Salem
9.68 North Stafford
9.16 Massaponax
8.86 Tuscarora
8.48 Broad Run
8.39 Hampton
8.06 Highland Springs
7.97 Atlee
The whole system is at this link
Rating System
My logic goes like this: There are about 56 teams per division in Virginia. If football wins were pure chance, we'd expect a team to repeat once every 56 state championship games. The actual number is more like 1 out of 6. So the defending state champion is 10 times more likely to win the state championship than your average team. I think you'd be hard pressed to find another statistic that correlates that highly. It's actually a pretty solid bet if you bet that at least one of the six will repeat in a given year.
If you have won two in a row, the probability that you win make it three is pretty good, too. It's actually like 1 in 5. If you win three in a row the probability you make it 4 is 50%.
All that being said, you're still talking about Bird (or any state champion) being much more likely to not repeat than to repeat. So, I think it would be foolish for anyone to say Bird should win the title, but I also think it'd be foolish not to make them an early favorite, along with several other schools that are consistent winners. I think it's about time a Stafford County school breaks through and wins one. I also like some of the schools just North of Richmond. You know the best teams out of southeast Virginia will be able to play. No reason to think Briar Woods is going away, either.
If anyone wants to know the scuttlebutt I'm hearing...it's that Bird has all the holes plugged with talent, I trust my sources, but it's hard for me to believe. Last year's Bird team had more pure athletic talent than any team I've seen them with. They just didn't have a weak guy on the field anywhere. I find it hard to believe they can replace that level of talent, so we'll see. I will say that they think they've got another great QB for next year.
Winning a state championship is HARD. I've been with programs in various sports over the years that I thought had a chance and it was never to be. No matter how talented you are, no matter how great your coach, or wonderful your program, or brilliant your scheme, it's all gotta go right. If you're not deep, an injury or two does you in. Coach's wife files for divorce and suddenly you're genius offensive coordinator is distracted. Kids move away, quit playing football because somebody told them to focus on basketball, etc. etc.
The expected wins formula Rod Johnson and I came up with last year, which actually did a pretty admirable job as a preseason predictor says these are the top twelve teams for next year.
13.03 Lloyd C. Bird
12.90 Briar Woods
11.32 Stone Bridge
10.16 Hermitage
9.87 Salem
9.68 North Stafford
9.16 Massaponax
8.86 Tuscarora
8.48 Broad Run
8.39 Hampton
8.06 Highland Springs
7.97 Atlee
The whole system is at this link
Rating System
I'm trying to find the words for what I think of your formula. For every negative, I see a positive. Paradox? Conundrum? Parallax?
Your rational of the mathematical results, as well as the duplicity of the reality, leave a lot of room to justify the eventual outcome. Having said that, your formula speaks for itself. Your methods do remove much of the bias from emotion, and any lack of uniform and in depth knowledge of all teams, from the top to the bottom.
Kind of a cold impersonal way to make predictions. For sure not as much fun as an emotional argument. But, probably a lot more accurate.
I would like to discount the "better chance of winning because they have won in the past", but, it factors in by proxy, the consistently good programs.
Well done.
Now, do YOU think Bird will get it done again?
I say yes.
Your rational of the mathematical results, as well as the duplicity of the reality, leave a lot of room to justify the eventual outcome. Having said that, your formula speaks for itself. Your methods do remove much of the bias from emotion, and any lack of uniform and in depth knowledge of all teams, from the top to the bottom.
Kind of a cold impersonal way to make predictions. For sure not as much fun as an emotional argument. But, probably a lot more accurate.
I would like to discount the "better chance of winning because they have won in the past", but, it factors in by proxy, the consistently good programs.
Well done.
Now, do YOU think Bird will get it done again?
I say yes.
I think they have the best of any team in the state in 5A.
1) I know they are going to go in the playoffs with a nice seed.
2) Once you get to the playoffs, you know they'll be a tough out. It's been a decade since someone truly "manhandled" them in a playoff game.
3) They've got confidence on their side. They learned how to play from behind in the final two weeks of the playoffs this year. I think that's a big plus for the program.
4) Losing your all time single season rushing champ and your all time everything leading passing champ would normally make me believe that we should expect a big fall, but every year we hear about how much Bird is losing. I don't know when the last time was I heard anyone say, "Wow Bird's returning almost everyone!"
I really hear great things about the kid who seems next in line for QB slot. Their back up running back last year (who broke his collar bone during the season) was cranking out big runs before his injury. So I don't think they really miss a beat there.
I do think Hermitage is going to be really hungry, and they've got a program that's been on par with Bird for several years now as the teams have split playoff games over the last 4 years. The Dominion didn't have anyone that really could stand up to Bird last year, but we know Manchester and Cosby (and always another good team) will be much improved. Meadowbrook, Springs, Matoaca and Atlee are teams I look to be really good in 5A.
I have only heard smidgens about who's got what coming back next year, but It doesn't seem to matter with some of these schools, you know they'll have eleven great players on the field every year.
I also think that 7-3 game with Salem was the best statement an old Eastern Region team made all year. "Overlook our best team in 5A at your peril." Salem really had the best of Bird for most of that game (at least their defense did). So even though some of us looked at 5A as a soft spot for much of the Eastern Region, it's going to take a lot more years of the Central Region Champ winning that semi-final game before I'll look at the winner from the Richmond area as a favorite there.
Briar Woods, North Stafford and 'Ponax all probably could have won a state title had the ball bounced a little differently down the stretch. I say your state champ comes from one of these 8 schools. Odds are just me musing...nothing scientific.
Bird 7:1 (29 in a row)
Hermitage 8:1 (Should have beaten Bird, and won first state title in 2012)
Hampton 8:1 (Tradition)
North Stafford 8:1 (They've been too good the last three years--play a tough schedule--a real threat)
Highland Springs 10:1 (Big underachievers in playoffs, if they get the psychology of the post season down they're dangerous)
Meadowbrook 12:1 (Great coach, they were young last year so look out)
Salem 12:1 (I was so impressed by the way they played against Bird--very overlooked team last year)
Briar Woods 12:1 (I don't think you go to four straight championship games, and drop very far, regardless of how great your star player was that graduated).
Let's throw Tuscarora in as a wild card.
1) I know they are going to go in the playoffs with a nice seed.
2) Once you get to the playoffs, you know they'll be a tough out. It's been a decade since someone truly "manhandled" them in a playoff game.
3) They've got confidence on their side. They learned how to play from behind in the final two weeks of the playoffs this year. I think that's a big plus for the program.
4) Losing your all time single season rushing champ and your all time everything leading passing champ would normally make me believe that we should expect a big fall, but every year we hear about how much Bird is losing. I don't know when the last time was I heard anyone say, "Wow Bird's returning almost everyone!"
I really hear great things about the kid who seems next in line for QB slot. Their back up running back last year (who broke his collar bone during the season) was cranking out big runs before his injury. So I don't think they really miss a beat there.
I do think Hermitage is going to be really hungry, and they've got a program that's been on par with Bird for several years now as the teams have split playoff games over the last 4 years. The Dominion didn't have anyone that really could stand up to Bird last year, but we know Manchester and Cosby (and always another good team) will be much improved. Meadowbrook, Springs, Matoaca and Atlee are teams I look to be really good in 5A.
I have only heard smidgens about who's got what coming back next year, but It doesn't seem to matter with some of these schools, you know they'll have eleven great players on the field every year.
I also think that 7-3 game with Salem was the best statement an old Eastern Region team made all year. "Overlook our best team in 5A at your peril." Salem really had the best of Bird for most of that game (at least their defense did). So even though some of us looked at 5A as a soft spot for much of the Eastern Region, it's going to take a lot more years of the Central Region Champ winning that semi-final game before I'll look at the winner from the Richmond area as a favorite there.
Briar Woods, North Stafford and 'Ponax all probably could have won a state title had the ball bounced a little differently down the stretch. I say your state champ comes from one of these 8 schools. Odds are just me musing...nothing scientific.
Bird 7:1 (29 in a row)
Hermitage 8:1 (Should have beaten Bird, and won first state title in 2012)
Hampton 8:1 (Tradition)
North Stafford 8:1 (They've been too good the last three years--play a tough schedule--a real threat)
Highland Springs 10:1 (Big underachievers in playoffs, if they get the psychology of the post season down they're dangerous)
Meadowbrook 12:1 (Great coach, they were young last year so look out)
Salem 12:1 (I was so impressed by the way they played against Bird--very overlooked team last year)
Briar Woods 12:1 (I don't think you go to four straight championship games, and drop very far, regardless of how great your star player was that graduated).
Let's throw Tuscarora in as a wild card.
I think you might be right about Tuscarora being a sleeper. 90 player roster last season, and not that many seniors.
I think Hampton will not be a serious threat again this coming season. Something is wrong down there. I don't know what, but in think it's more than just a lull in talented players.
Meadowbrook will be improved, for sure. They have a couple of really good players returning. But, I don't think they will be a serious threat to go far in the playoffs, assuming they get there.
Hermitage, yeah. I've heard an alumni talking, and he seems to think they will be really tough this fall.
Highland Springs I don't think is a serious contender, nor Matoaca.
But, the truth is, I think Bird has the third championship to lose. But, any of the North teams mentioned above has an excellent chance of being the one that stops their reign.
What kind of experienced players does Salem have returning.
I think Hampton will not be a serious threat again this coming season. Something is wrong down there. I don't know what, but in think it's more than just a lull in talented players.
Meadowbrook will be improved, for sure. They have a couple of really good players returning. But, I don't think they will be a serious threat to go far in the playoffs, assuming they get there.
Hermitage, yeah. I've heard an alumni talking, and he seems to think they will be really tough this fall.
Highland Springs I don't think is a serious contender, nor Matoaca.
But, the truth is, I think Bird has the third championship to lose. But, any of the North teams mentioned above has an excellent chance of being the one that stops their reign.
What kind of experienced players does Salem have returning.
Gilliam, question for you.
How did you come up with the value of the different multipliers in your formula?
This post was edited on 4/18 9:04 PM by DinwiddieProud
How did you come up with the value of the different multipliers in your formula?
This post was edited on 4/18 9:04 PM by DinwiddieProud
Salem has loads of experience returning on both sides of the ball. QB and RB were 10 graders last year. About 8-9 starters returning on both sides of the ball including star DE Trevon Hill. I'm sure Bird fans remember him. In my eyes the Sundevils are the favorites or at least have as good of odds as anybody. They had Bird beat last year before the Skyhawks pulled it off at the last minute. So I would give them the nod in the rematch this year because they will have more experience than Bird.