Will Rogers and stats...

[dawgstudent]

let's look at Mike Leach at WSU. I'm not saying Will Rogers is not playing well but using the stats of a Mike Leach QB is fool's gold.

3-9: 3800 yards in 2012
6-7: 4600 yards in 2013
3-9: 5600 yards in 2014
9-4: 5000 yards in 2015
8-5: 4700 yards in 2016
9-4: 4700 yards in 2017
11-2: 4800 yards in 2018
6-7: 5600 yards in 2019

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/washington-state/

Will is on pace for 4362 yards. Yards are 2nd nature to a QB in the Mike Leach system. It's like Tony James being the NCAA leader in kickoff returns yard when he played for MSU. That's not a good thing that he got so many chances to return kicks.

 

[The Peeper]

Until you score, completion % and total yards don't mean squat, nothing, nada, naught, zip, diddly, etc.......

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

I do agree with your general point that passing yards aren’t the end all be all of this offense. But you throw up those team’s records and totally ignore WSU’s defenses. Some of those teams with losing records and big time passing yards actually had really good offenses.

In 2012 WSU was terrible- but in 2013, 2014 and 2019, offense was not the problem. The reason those teams had losing records is because they were awful on defense.

2013- 97th in PPG allowed
2014- 117th in PPG allowed
2019- 93rd in PPG allowed

If you want to correlate passing yards and total yards to anything to determine offensive success, correlate it to points scored, not wins and losses. Because defensive performance goes into that as well.

2013: 54th in total offense, 52nd in scoring offense. This team scored as well as it moved the ball. The defense just sucked.

2014: 7th in total offense, 46th in scoring offense. This offense moved the ball better than it scored, but when you are 117th in scoring defense, offense isn’t the issue.

2019: 7th in total offense, 11th in scoring offense. Again, the offense was great. WSU went 6-7 because their defense sucked.

Over time, the teams that can move the ball and generate explosive plays are the teams that score the most points. Even though we aren’t scoring much yet, it is a good sign that we are competent at moving the ball.

We just need to be more explosive and stop shooting ourselves in the foot.

 

[ckDOG]

Square peg, round hole.

I keep seeing folks comparing Will to MSU historical QB. You simply can't compare a Mike Leach QB, who will accumulate the stats from 75% of the offensive plays minimum, to the historical MSU QB would would be contributing to far far less. It just doesn't make sense.

Tracking Will's QBR and team PPG is a better way to gauge his performance vs the "HE'S SETTING SO MANY MSU RECORDS!!1!" approach. Sure, he's racking up a lot of yards between the 20s with 1-5 yard passes, but we stall. Why? Some of that is an o-line set up for pass blocking and not doing a good job at mauling folks at the goal line. Some of that is the easy throws that Will thrives on being taken away from having less space to work.

He's still a young sophomore. He will get better as he gains confidence. I think he can take the next step, but patience from most folks in the last third of the season. Risk free playing time for Robertson will be mighty tempting after game 8 if the offense doesn't have a better 2nd third of the season.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Basically, here is what you are saying:

Just because Leach’s offenses rack up big passing yards does not mean the team wins.

Here is what I am saying:

True, passing yardage in and of itself does not lead to wins. But if we can get Leach’s offensive production from 2013-2019 at WSU, we will be more successful because our defenses should be better… At least as long as we continue to recruit that side of the ball well and have a good DC.

We are moving towards that offensive output quickly from a yardage standpoint. It just needs to translate to points on the board, then the wins will come.

 

[MSUDC11]

I do agree with your general point that passing yards aren’t the end all be all of this offense. But you throw up those team’s records and totally ignore WSU’s defenses. Some of those teams with losing records and big time passing yards actually had really good offenses.

In 2012 WSU was terrible- but in 2013, 2014 and 2019, offense was not the problem. The reason those teams had losing records is because they were awful on defense.

2013- 97th in PPG allowed
2014- 117th in PPG allowed
2019- 93rd in PPG allowed

If you want to correlate passing yards and total yards to anything to determine offensive success, correlate it to points scored, not wins and losses. Because defensive performance goes into that as well.

2013: 54th in total offense, 52nd in scoring offense. This team scored as well as it moved the ball. The defense just sucked.

2014: 7th in total offense, 46th in scoring offense. This offense moved the ball better than it scored, but when you are 117th in scoring defense, offense isn’t the issue.

2019: 7th in total offense, 11th in scoring offense. Again, the offense was great. WSU went 6-7 because their defense sucked.

Over time, the teams that can move the ball and generate explosive plays are the teams that score the most points. Even though we aren’t scoring much yet, it is a good sign that we are competent at moving the ball.

We just need to be more explosive and stop shooting ourselves in the foot.

Elephant in the room, we currently rank higher in scoring offense (75th) than we do in scoring defense (80th).

 

[philduckworth]

Leach could win at MSU if he would makes some adjustments but he chooses not too. It's that simple.

 

[dawgstudent]

Elephant in the room, we currently rank higher in scoring offense (75th) than we do in scoring defense (80th).

Does scoring defense include the 42 points that are not on the defense? Kickoff returns, fumbles, pick 6's?

 

[8dog]

The stats includes the 2 TDs against Memphis and the 1 against LT that were Def/ST. Take that out and we are top 50 And NC St scored a garbage time TD. The defense is doing fine especially when you consider it lost its 3 best players and then lost Jordan Davis. Because of that we have no pass rush if we just send 4.

 

[paindonthurt_]

Defensive stats
2012 - 426 yds/gm
2013 - 458
2014 - 442
2015 - 423
2016 - 416
2017 - 314
2018 - 346
2019 - 457

If we continue to get better on offense, which we are showing progress whether people are smart enough to see it or not, and the defense just holds serve, we can win games with Mike Leach.

I mean the point of any offense is to move the football and score points.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Elephant in the room, we currently rank higher in scoring offense (75th) than we do in scoring defense (80th).

Yeah, a few reasons for that IMO…

1) Most importantly we have very little pass rush right now. This is far and away our biggest issue defensively. We miss Jordan Davis and Wheat/Brule have been underwhelming to this point based on expectations. They have not been bad, but we need those guys in the backfield more.

We are having to do everything we can to put pressure on QBs, which is leading to our weakest position group getting put on an island and leads to big plays. Which brings me to…

2) We are not very talented at safety. We are better than a year ago but still need to improve. That starts with cutting out the multiple busted assignments per week, which really doesn’t have much to do with talent. Coaching needs to improve at safety, IMO.

3) Lastly, in fairness we have played better offenses than most everyone else. Again we have the toughest SOS in the SEC to this point, and a lot of that is due to us seeing pretty good offenses.

La Tech is a good CUSA offense, and we also gave up a pick six and some short fields that game.

NC State is not explosive, but they are a solid offense. We can shut down offenses like this that don’t really beat you over the top.

Memphis is putting up 39 per game and we did a great job defensively here. Two non-offensive TDs in this game are counting against the defense. We gave up another TD on a drive that started inside our own 40, and their FG came after an onside kick. The 98 yard TD drive was really the lone bad spot in this game.

LSU has a sneaky good passing game, and the big play killed us. It would also help if we didn’t gift first downs on special teams and give up short fields once again.

Basically our defense hasn’t been lights out, and there are some serious weaknesses if you can throw deep. But we have really not been as bad as the scoring defense rank would indicate.

 

[Go Budaw]

Elephant in the room, we currently rank higher in scoring offense (75th) than we do in scoring defense (80th).

That’s very much an issue. We’ve given up an alarming number of game changing chunk plays for a team that allegedly has talent and a solid scheme that we do. Say what you want about the offense, but our talent there is bottom 2 or 3 in the SEC at every position except for Cross and the WR’s. That certainly isn’t the case on defense.

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

Leach could win at MSU if he would makes some adjustments but he chooses not too. It's that simple.

I think that narrative is not 100% true anymore. Faulk and Hadad said the splits on Oline had changed against LSU. State made a concerted effort to run the ball. I did not notice if there were any new running plays. He’s not completely changing his offense, but they are making tweaks.

 

[mcdawg22]

We had more total yards in 2014 (6679, 3030 rushing) than any Mike Leach team at WSU.

 

[MSUDC11]

The stats includes the 2 TDs against Memphis and the 1 against LT that were Def/ST. Take that out and we are top 50 And NC St scored a garbage time TD. The defense is doing fine especially when you consider it lost its 3 best players and then lost Jordan Davis. Because of that we have no pass rush if we just send 4.

Would you not have to take similar things into context for other teams? I can't imagine we are the only team that has allowed non-offensive or garbage time TD's.

 

[8dog]

Absolutely. Probably a better way to frame it is we are giving up 20 ppg. Regardless of where that ranks thats plenty to keep us in games. In reality they did enough to win the Memphis game. We should be 3-1. LSU wasnt our best effort but again its not a talent laden group. The front 7 is not great. And the safeties arent good either.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Would you not have to take similar things into context for other teams? I can't imagine we are the only team that has allowed non-offensive or garbage time TD's.

The best way to look at it is actual defensive performance metrics.

We are 16th in CFB Outsiders defensive efficiency.
We are 37th in defensive net points per drive.

Any way you slice it, we are a good defense with a couple of deficiencies that keep it from being elite.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

We had more total yards in 2014 (6679, 3030 rushing) than any Mike Leach team at WSU.

Mike Leach has had more wins in a season (11, twice!) than any Mississippi State team ever.

See how easy this is.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

We had more total yards in 2014 (6679, 3030 rushing) than any Mike Leach team at WSU.

Yes, we had a great offense in 2014. Dak was a great QB. Dan Mullen is a great offensive coach who would still be coaching here if he wanted to be.

Not sure what point you’re trying to make? People are capable of appreciating Mullen and also thinking Leach will ultimately have good offenses as well. It’s not an either/or deal.

FWIW, Mullen did have some bad offenses here too. Let’s not act like every season he had here was 2014.

 

[57stratdawg]

Bart and Charlie said PFF rated Will Rogers the #1 Offensive Player in the SEC over the weekend. His trend right now is very encouraging.

 

[mcdawg22]

My point was, agreeing with what DS said, offensive effectiveness can't be judged by QB stats alone. I was surprised and I'm sure many here would be, that we had any offense that had more yards than Leach ever had at WSU. We averaged more yards per play in 3 of 5 years between 14 and 18.
'14 MSU 6.5 WSU 5.9
'15 6.24 5.69
'16 5.95 5.94
'17 5.44 5.65
'18 5.99 6.04
avg 6.02 5.84
If you knew that we averaged more yards per play than WSU in both of our prime years congrats. I found that surprising.
Another random stat I found which was unusual and isn't a part of this discussion. The 2 years the Leach averaged the most PPG in his career he had his only teams with more than 1500 yards rushing. I found that interesting.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

This defense is nothing to brag about either. I don't know why everyone wants to act like it is. They are good 9 out of 10 plays. But the tenth play is usually a 64 yard touchdown

 

[patdog]

Say what? He wasn't even the #1 QB in Davis Wade Stadium Saturday.

 

[Go Budaw]

This defense is nothing to brag about either. I don't know why everyone wants to act like it is. They are good 9 out of 10 plays. But the tenth play is usually a 64 yard touchdown

Yes. Very Grantham-esque. Watching that QB for La Tech house one against us made me want to vomit.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

What we typically consider a good defense at State would allow us to win every game we scored 28 points in. But this one is susceptible to the long play passing or running

 

[mcdawg22]

What we typically consider a good defense at State would allow us to win every game we scored 28 points in. But this one is susceptible to the long play passing or running

While I realize that many teams have padded stats against weaker opponents (not us), there are 9 teams in the SEC averaging better than 32 PPG. The game has changed. Just for a reference, we arguably had the best D in the country in 2018 and we averaged 30 PPG on offense.

 

[philduckworth]

I think that narrative is not 100% true anymore. Faulk and Hadad said the splits on Oline had changed against LSU. State made a concerted effort to run the ball. I did not notice if there were any new running plays. He’s not completely changing his offense, but they are making tweaks.

Faulk and Hadad were wrong. The splits did not change.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

That defense in 18 allowed 13.2 points per game. Second only to Clemson. I was mostly referring to points allowed by a good Miss State D. Im not going all the way back to JLD but we could. But it is a different game in 99. Not so much from 2018.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

Statistically he was. More yardage, completions, time of possession. Everything but the most important stat

 

[paindonthurt_]

We rushed the ball 26 times and I’m willing to bet you don’t know if the splits changed or not.

 

[patdog]

Yards per attempt and TD:Int ratio went heavily to the LSU QB. I'll take that every time.

 

[patdog]

25 times, 1 was a sack. But, yeah, I'm encouraged by that stat.

Edit: Should give credit for a couple of forward pitches to the RB that were effectively runs, so 27 attempts.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

Heavily ? The facts are Johnson was 17 of 27 for 280 yards. 4 td and 1 interception. Rogers was 47 of 62 for 371 yards with 3 to and 1 interception. Also, just for fun, Price rushed 13 times for 51 yards and Dillon Johnson rushed 8 times for 51 yards. Our defense did give up a couple long pass plays for TD so his avg was higher per pass. Were it not for running into each other and blown coverages I seriously doubt it would have been. But of course we woulda won the game if we gave up one less TD. Im sure you will take that all day too

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

We rushed the ball 26 times and I’m willing to bet you don’t know if the splits changed or not.

I’m almost positive he is right. The splits did not look any tighter from what I could see watching in the stadium or on replay.

Steve said he talked to someone (insinuated a staff member) who said the splits were not tighter against LSU. If anything, they may have been a little wider.

 

[patdog]

10.4 ypa vs 6.0. That’s a huge difference. 4:1>3:1, especially when 2 of the 3 came after the game was effectively over.

 

[57stratdawg]

That’s the difference between throwing into 7 or 8 man zones and Arnett’ bold strategy of only covering 3 out of 4 receivers on a play.

 

[Cooterpoot]

The air raid is fools gold. It's a ball control offense. We'll be rebuilding with a new coach in a couple years unless we're content with 5-6 wins.

 

[patdog]

So? The fact remains, LSU's QB and WRs won that game for them. They were by far the most dominant position groups for either team in the game. If LSU’s QB is 6.0 ypa, we win easily. If Rogers is 10.4 ypa, we run easily.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

Point made. Defense got burned in the passing game yet again.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

The air raid is fools gold. It's a ball control offense. We'll be rebuilding with a new coach in a couple years unless we're content with 5-6 wins.

Is Foxhall still an awful pitching coach? And Lemonis’s teams are fundamentally unsound and he won’t get off his bucket?

https://www.elitedawgs.com/showthread.php?86769-Foxhall-is-garbage&highlight=Foxhall

https://www.elitedawgs.com/showthre...one-of-his-hunches-tomorrow&highlight=Lemonis

Just want to make sure we still have a competent baseball staff. Have we ever had a coach that was actually good in your mind?