Jay Bilas provides murky outlook on Alabama's path to the Final Four

After the NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed, Nate Oats was honest. His expectation moving forward is to make the Final Four. Alabama has a veteran group a year removed from getting there and their head coach expects to be in San Antonio the first weekend of April.

ESPN’s Jay Bilas is not totally convinced Alabama can get there. He picked Duke to win the East region and went on The Paul Finebaum Show to discuss the Crimson Tide on Mondy. Health is a big storyline moving forward, mainly Grant Nelson after his knee injury vs. Florida in the SEC Tournament semifinal.

“Alabama hasn’t played great lately by SEC standards,” Bilas said. “But what I would tell you is that if they were in the ACC playing that way, they would have won all but one of those games. I think Alabama is very, very capable when healthy… Of the guys they’ve been playing with all year, if Nelson is not healthy, that takes away their best shot blocker, their best rebounder, and maybe their best driver outside of Mark Sears. It would limit them.”

Bilas also mentioned the long-term issues Alabama has dealt with. Latrell Wrightsell and Houston Mallette have been out for long stretches and are not expected to return. Freshman Derrion Reid has been missed too.

Reid did play in Nashville against Kentucky but sat out the following day. He was a huge part of Alabama’s defensive identity when healthy and has been dearly missed. Nobody is doubting the offensive capability coming from Oats’ squad but finding a way to improve on defense could be the difference.

“Really, the difference between Alabama in a Final Four and not, is not going to be offense,” Bilas said. “It’s going to be the way the way they defend. If they defend at a higher level, which they’re capable of — they’re not going to turn around and be the University of Virginia, 2019 — if they can get a little stingier on the defensive end, I think stepping out of the conference and playing against some new faces is going to serve them pretty well.”

Alabama will face Robert Morris on Thursday with Saint Mary’s or Vanderbilt waiting on the other side. If seeding holds, Wisconsin would be the Sweet Sixteen matchup before potentially facing Duke in the Elite Eight.

The Blue Devils have injury concerns of their own, mainly star Cooper Flagg. But Bilas sees the matchup as too much for Alabama once there, giving Duke the advantage if they meet up.

“If and when they play Duke in an Elite Eight game, Duke can match them talent-wise. They play a little bit of a different style, Cooper Flagg is healthy. I think Duke’s just a little bit better.”