Paul Finebaum explains why he's pretty confident in Alabama in CFP vs. Oklahoma

Paul Finebaum believes there’s a level of uncertainty when it comes to Alabama at the moment. Still, as the College Football Playoff approaches, the longtime SEC voice believes the Crimson Tide are better positioned than many think heading into their rematch with Oklahoma.

Speaking Monday on McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning, Finebaum said he’s “cautiously confident” Alabama can flip the script against the Sooners after dropping a regular-season meeting in Tuscaloosa back on Nov. 15.

“I am cautiously confident,” Finebaum said. “It’s always difficult to gauge which Alabama team will show up. I just felt like watching the first Oklahoma game again, there were just so many places in that game that Alabama threw it away, and I didn’t think Oklahoma was the better team. I just thought Alabama couldn’t shoot straight.”

Alas, Alabama enters the CFP as the No. 9 seed and will travel to Norman to face No. 8 Oklahoma in a first-round matchup with major implications. The Tide’s inclusion in the 12-team field came with plenty of controversy after a lopsided loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, a result that ultimately pushed Notre Dame out of the Playoff. 

Still, the committee favored Alabama’s overall résumé, setting up a high-stakes postseason rematch. Finebaum acknowledged the concern surrounding Alabama’s performance in Atlanta, but he believes the extra time and the urgency of the moment will make a difference.

Finebaum on Alabama: ‘I feel pretty confident’

“I feel pretty confident that, even after the debacle in Atlanta a week ago, that they will be in better shape physically, and most importantly, maybe even mentally, to go out there and win the game,” Finebaum said.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma has had Alabama’s number since joining the SEC. The Sooners are 2–0 against the Tide since last season, including a dominant 24–3 win in Norman in 2024 that kept Alabama out of the Playoff altogether. That history looms large, but Finebaum sees the upcoming matchup as a different scenario entirely.

This time, the stakes are even higher. The winner will advance to the CFP quarterfinals to face No. 1 Indiana, fresh off their Big Ten Championship victory over Ohio State. For Alabama, it’s a chance to erase recent frustrations against Oklahoma and reaffirm its place among the sport’s elite. For Oklahoma, it’s an opportunity to prove those wins weren’t a fluke.

Either way, Finebaum believes Alabama understands what’s on the line. That awareness could be the deciding factor when the Tide and Sooners meet again under the Playoff spotlight.