Duke 2025 win total: Greg McElroy previews Blue Devils' mark of 7.5 wins

The Duke Blue Devils caught many experts around the country by surprise in 2024, going 9-4 and making the Gator Bowl. Now, head coach Manny Diaz is looking to find a way to replicate that kind of success in the 2025 season.

College football analyst Greg McElroy broke down Duke’s current win total of 7.5 games on Always College Football. While that’s below their nine wins from last season, amid some roster turnover, it’s going to be interesting to see if Diaz is going to go be able to go over that number.

“One of the great stories of the college football season last year was Manny Diaz leading Duke to a nine-win first year,” Greg McElroy said. “And, in those nine wins, six of those nine wins came in one-score games. They were a remarkable 6-1 in one-score games last year, but there are pieces to replace and there are things to figure out. Their win total isn’t too bad. They can certainly get there, but it will be very, very difficult I think when looking at the entire picture.”

Last season, Duke brought in transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy. He’s moved on, though, and now the Blue Devils are turning to Darian Mensah. That’s, perhaps, the most high-profile roster change, but it’s far from the only one, which makes Duke a tough team to judge for Greg McElroy.

“Elon, UConn, Virginia, and Wake Forest are the four that absolutely have to be won. If they’re going to eclipse their win total and get anywhere near matching where they were last year, they have to win those four games. Then, you have a bunch of toss-ups. Because I only look at this schedule and I only see two losses right now. That’s against Illinois on September 6th and that’s at Clemson on November 1st. So, that means you’ve got two losses,” McElroy said.

“So, 10 other games are up for grabs, including four that we’ve already chronicled as Ws… Now, here’s your toss-ups. You’ve got to win a handful of these. At Tulane. I think Tulane, Darian Mensah, your quarterback, who transferred from Tulane. He’s now going back to New Orleans to take on the Green Wave. That’s one where I’d give Duke a slight edge but not a significant edge going into this season. You got NC State at home. You’re at Syracuse. You’re at Cal. You have Georgia Tech at home. Then, you’re at North Carolina. Anybody’s guess as to what North Carolina might be this year because I, certainly, am having a hard time finding out what they might look like and what they could potentially accomplish, but it’s anybody’s guess. It’s a rivalry game. It’s on the road. So, we’ll put it in the toss-up category.”

In essence, McElroy thinks the schedule comes down to those toss-up games. Since the majority of those games are on the road, it’s actually going to come down to how the Blue Devils play away from home. A poor showing on the road and getting over 7.5 wins is going to be very difficult.

“So, you’ve got to win four of those games to get over that win total of 7.5 for the Duke Blue Devils. Either way, I think there’s a lot of reason to believe that they can get those games,” McElroy said. “But they’re going to have to play well on the road because if you look at that toss-up category, four of those six games are on the road. The two at home, against NC State and against Georgia Tech, both those teams I think have a chance to be improved from where they were a year ago.”

Duke is going to open the season on August 28th against Elon. That’s one of those games that McElroy expects the Blue Devils to win. After that, ACC play begins on September 20th against NC State for one of those toss-up games.