Pete Thamel outlines Duke's path to College Football Playoff hopes

Duke fans were pleasantly surprised by head coach Manny Diaz‘s success in his debut campaign last season. While they’re excited to see what Diaz can achieve in his second year at the helm, almost none of them expect the Blue Devils to make the College Football Playoff. However, ESPN’s Pete Thamel believes a Duke CFP appearance might not be a complete pipe dream.

“If Duke is able to get by Illinois, there is a path there for them to be in the thicket of College Football Playoff contention,” Thamel said. “Tulane is a difficult game on the road, as Manny [Diaz] mentioned, but Tulane is not what they were. They lost a lot.

“… It gets harder and harder by the year to project what these teams are gonna look like because there’s so much personnel. And I’m not making an excuse, I’m just saying like it’s less linear, one year to the next. But if you go past Tulane, all of a sudden, you got NC State at home, you’re at Syracuse, you’re probably favored at Cal, Georgia Tech at home, and then they go to Clemson, November 1. That game could have significant stakes.”

Duke posted a 9-3 regular-season record last season, far exceeding oddsmakers’ expectations. After the season, Duke starting quarterback Maalik Murphy unexpectedly entered the transfer portal. Alas, Manny Diaz and Co. didn’t waste anytime replacing the standout QB.

Just two days after Murphy entered the transfer portal, Tulane QB Darian Mensah committed to Duke. Mensah was excellent for Tulane last season, tallying 2,723 passing yards and 22 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions.

The Blue Devils will need Mensah to find similar success in the 2025 campaign if they want to have a chance at reaching the CFP. Thamel believes the outcome of Duke’s Week 2 showdown against Illinois will be telling for the rest of the Blue Devils’ season.

“One thing Illinois has always done is it’s tested you on both of your lines, especially since Bret Bielema has been there. So it will be a significant test,” Thamel said. “The path is there for nine-win Duke to be better. They felt like they could be better at quarterback than they were with Maalik Murphy.

“They felt like the offense could get unlocked a little bit. You got to give them credit for going out with aggression, both financially and just with intentionality in the portal, to go do that. And yeah, it could pay off very early.”