Athlon Sports assesses Billy Napier's hot seat temperature entering 2025

Billy Napier already saved himself from the hot seat he was on last fall around mid-September or mid-October. He’s still technically on one in general, though, going into year four for him in Gainesville.

Athlon Sports named 13 head coaches, plus some honorable mentions, on the hot seat in their preview of the upcoming season in college football. Napier had his name on it with the publication, while noting what he did to end last season, emphasizing what he needs to do this year at Florida.

“(AD) Scott Stricklin gave Napier a vote of confidence in early November, and the Gators responded with a four-game winning streak that included victories over LSU and Ole Miss to finish the year, cooling the pressure a bit. However, with a full offseason to develop (QB) DJ Lagway, Napier can’t afford to take a step back in the win column,” they wrote.

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Looking back, Napier was on one of the hotter seats in the sport coming into last season, being 11-14 through two years as head coach of the Gators. The possibility of his firing, whether midseason or after, then got very real over the first month and a half of the season with a 1-2 start with losses to No. 19 Miami and Texas A&M and being at 3-3 halfway through after an overtime loss at Tennessee. However, the second half of that season likely saved his tenure, for at least another season, being competitive in a loss to Georgia while getting wins over Kentucky, No. 22 LSU, No. 9 Ole Miss, at Florida State, and then Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl to finish at 8-5.

The biggest piece of that turnaround was the insertion of Lagway as QB1 following the season-ending injury for Graham Mertz. Lagway, while dealing with some injury issues of his own, would flash some of his Five-Star+ potential as the No. 1 QB recruit in 2024, completing 59.9% of his throws for 1,915 yards, 12 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He’ll now lead what should be the best team yet in this tenure for the Gators with returners, among others on the offense and defensive lines, like RB Jadan Baugh, WR Eugene Wilson III, DE Tyreak Sapp, and DB Jordan Castell. They’ll be joined by one Top-125 transfer in WR J. Michael Sturdivant (UCLA, Cal) as well as a Top-10 recruiting class incoming.

With that, Napier will be expected to post a consecutive winning record and again be multiple games over .500. Athlon Spots even has the Gators, as a potential long shot to win the national title, in their Preseason Top-25 at No. 11 overall. That said, Florida will have a difficult schedule again, being just the inverse one to last season, with road games against the Tigers, Hurricanes, Aggies, and Rebels, home games versus the Longhorns, Volunteers, and Seminoles, and the neutral-site matchup against the ‘Dawgs in Jacksonville on November 1st.

Napier ended up off of his hot seat with their final seven games making up for a lot that happened in the previous 31. Still, if the Gators aren’t around where they were by the end of last season either in record or with their play, he could end up right back on it down in The Swamp.