Billy Napier hot seat: Why Florida coach's firing isn't inevitable after win over Texas

Many were ready to declare Billy Napier done at Florida prior to a huge upset victory against No. 9 Texas this past week. Some still are, but not college football analyst Josh Pate.

Speaking on Josh Pate’s College Football Show, he spoke about the general narrative that existed going into that game. He also laid out how Napier could save his job again much like he did a season ago.

“The overwhelming narrative around Billy Napier was it’s a forgone conclusion he’s gonna lose his job,” Pate said. “I bought that last year and then he didn’t lose his job. So then we came into this year and it started again and I’ll repeat what I’ve heard on the show. So last week I told you that’s what I’m hearing. It’s a forgone conclusion. But then, you’ll notice that I followed it up with, ‘I don’t know if I share that belief’ because if he’s still there then he’s still got an opportunity to win.

“The crazy thing that can happen when a team does not quit on a coach and they’re really talented and take pride in their performance like Florida does, is they can mess around and win games. So if it’s a forgone conclusion he’s gonna be gone eventually, he needs to be gone immediately or else you’re gonna screw around and let him win games again. Now, I like Billy Napier, so I hope he wins every game he coaches.”

Napier is a mere 21-22 at Florida since he took over in 2022. His only winning record was an 8-5 finish from last year that he needed four straight wins at the end of the season to accomplish. That plus a Gasparilla Bowl win ended up being what ultimately bought him more time.

However, after starting off 1-3 and losing against USF, Napier found his seat growing hotter. This week’s win will take a little bit of that pressure off, and if more follow, watch out.

“I had a buddy text me this morning, actually like 10 of them, saying ‘This just prolonged the inevitable right?'” Pate said. “That’s the general consensus: this just prolonged the inevitable. I don’t know that. You don’t know that. We can think. We can assume. We can guess. How do you know it prolongs the inevitable? Or, in other words, are you telling me that if he doesn’t lose another game he’s still gone?

“Because if you can’t tell me that, then it’s not inevitable because you don’t know what the results are gonna be. I’m telling you, if you didn’t watch Florida yesterday and you just saw the final score, that team is still fighting for him just like they did last year.”

Continuing, Pate laid out a tough road ahead for Florida. Three of the Gators’ next five games come against top 10 opponents in Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss. They also close out the year against Tennessee and Florida State.

That could spell disaster for Florida or it could mean they go on the run of a lifetime and wind up in the SEC title game. Although that latter scenario is unlikely, it’s not impossible, and thus it’s not inevtiable that Billy Napier is gone.

“They’ve still got a lot of tough teams, but here’s what that also means: they’re playing a bunch of teams that are right in the thick of the SEC Championship race,” Pate said. “Before people just say they’re out of the SEC Championship race, no they’re not. They’ve got one conference loss. Their losses are USF and Miami. You may think the first of which was inexplicable, and I agree with you. But it doesn’t count against your conference record.

“So they’re just one of a few teams with a conference loss. Now, they’ve got a much tougher conference slate still to go and yesterday could be a one off. All of these things are possible, but I’m not in the camp that this just prolonged the inevitable. If Billy gets fired, he gets fired. That’s not inevtiable to me.”