Greg McElroy breaks down path for Louisville to reach College Football Playoff

The expanded College Football Playoff has allowed more opportunities for teams to make it to the field and compete for a national championship than ever before. 2025 is going to be a highly competitive season and one in which teams that haven’t made the field before, like the Louisville Cardinals, feel they have a shot to compete.

Ahead of the season, analyst Greg McElroy shared the path Louisville would need to take to make the Playoff on Always College Football. It’s one that starts with quarterback Miller Moss.

“They had a really solid season last year,” Greg McElroy said. “Jeff Brohm does an amazing job. I don’t think anybody’s going to push back on that. I like the addition of Miller Moss. Now, you look at what they had last year in Tyler Shough, he was outstanding. Was rewarded with a second round pick from the New Orleans Saints and is likely to be a Day 1 starter for the Saints here this season. But Miller Moss, at times, big key there, at times has been very, very solid.”

Moss comes as an experienced transfer from USC. Last season, in nine games, he’d complete 64.4 percent of passes for 2,555 yards and 18 touchdowns to nine interceptions. He also would rush for two touchdowns during the season.

“There have been flashes of brilliance by Miller Moss, best exemplified by what he did in the 2023 Holiday Bowl, where he threw six touchdowns. This is an offensive system that is geared toward the quarterback. The good news is, they don’t have to put it all on Miller Moss’ shoulders,” McElroy said.

“This is an exceptionally good running back duo. You might have one of the best running back tandems in the entire country. Isaac Brown was the ACC Rookie of the Year last year, went for over 1,100 yards, 11 touchdowns. He’s widely considered one of the best backs in college football. You also have Duke Watson, who I think can take some of the load off from time to time. This is a great one, two punch and the offense should be centered around how often those guys are getting touches and how good they’re going to be running the football.”

While offense has always been a strength of Brohm, the Louisville defense could be a concern. McElroy highlighted that the biggest concern is the secondary, but if that gets patched up, then they should be in good shape.

“The defense was kind of the biggest question mark. You look at what they have back at the linebacker spot, they should be pretty good. You also look too at what they’ve done from a transfer portal standpoint. Looks like things should be pretty good there on the defensive side. So, you look at the back end, that’s the big concern. I think Louisville’s secondary, especially at corner, they’ve lost several impactful defensive backs to graduation and to the Transfer Portal. So, they’ve got to rebuild that unit, but they feel pretty confident based on what they have,” McElroy said.

“Also really bullish on what they have at wide receiver… This should be a really good offense across the board. It’s just can they get back to playing high level defense, like they did a couple of years ago in route to a possible College Football Playoff berth.”

If there is a major concern about Louisville, it doesn’t have anything to do with the roster itself. It’s actually the schedule they play. McElroy is seeing this as one of the most difficult in the ACC, which is going to create potential pitfalls.

“This is a very difficult schedule in the ACC. They have Clemson. They go to Miami, they go to SMU, they go to Virginia Tech, they go to Pitt. Those are very, very difficult games, with four of the aforementioned five on the road. You also get James Madison, who, while not in the Power Four,” McElroy said. “We have seen James Madison elevate at times against top-level competition. They beat North Carolina last year and hung 70 points in that performance. They also get Kentucky at home. There’s some more manageable games on the roster too, with BC, Virginia, Bowling Green, Eastern Kentucky, California. They get some manageable games in there as well, but this is a very, very difficult schedule.”

One benefit of the 12-team Playoff format is that it allows for teams to trip up and still be competitive for a spot. So, even if Louisville isn’t perfect through that stretch, as long as they remain competitive in the ACC, then they have a shot to make the field.

“If they could get through that five-game stretch with those four road games and Clemson at home,” McElroy said. “They can get through that stretch 3-2, that’d be pretty remarkable. I’m not sure they can, but they certainly have the potential if they can improve defensively to be in the mix and make every single one of those games highly competitive.”

Louisville opens the season on August 30th against Eastern Kentucky. ACC won’t start up until September 27th with a road game against Pitt.