Brian Kelly hot seat: Why Vanderbilt loss created 'inflection point', exposed major misstep

By losing at Vanderbilt on Saturday, LSU fell to 5-2 overall, likely needing to win out to even potentially make the SEC Championship and definitely needing to in order to be in the College Football Playoff. Now, having lost two of their last three to be in that position, Josh Pate wondered what the future is for Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge.

On ‘Josh Pate’s College Football Show’ on Sunday, Pate reacted to the 31-24 loss for No. 10 LSU on the road to No. 17 Vanderbilt. He realizes how far off the standard this is for the Tigers, which brings about the question of if Kelly is the next coach in the sport to find himself on the hot seat.

“Think about what we’re talking about here now. This is supposed to be a national championship caliber program. This year, this team this year, was supposed to be an SEC, national championship caliber team. And they’re having to fight just to stay in it, at Vanderbilt. And that’s no disrespect to Vanderbilt. It is an indictment on where LSU’s team is this year,” said Pate. “So, where’s the program? Where are things with Brian Kelly?”

Frankly, Pate was the latest put much of this on the offensive output by LSU, coached by OC Joe Sloan. The Tigers are posting 25.6 points and 366.6 yards per game this season, both of which are by far the fewest of the tenure and the program’s current fewest since 2009. That, in the end to Pate, falls on Kelly for promoting him to the position, with yesterday’s loss reflecting a change in the school’s trajectory that will center on what’s done with positions on the staff moving forward, specifically when it comes to the future for the head coach himself.

“I didn’t beat around the bush with this last week – I kind of did, only because I don’t like making definitive statements on this stuff, because very, very frequently, it’s not definitive. It’s fluid,” noted Pate. “I was getting some pretty strong indication last week that this Vanderbilt game was very, very important for Brian Kelly’s future down there. Well, they lost it. Then they flew back home. So now, what’s the situation with Brian Kelly? Well, I viewed yesterday sort of as an inflection point…Brian Kelly wasn’t going to lose the Vanderbilt game and then lose his job the next day. But what I believe is, there’s some things coming down the road for Brian Kelly that were put in motion yesterday.”

“What I suspect is going on is, you’ve got maybe an athletic director, and maybe a head coach, and maybe some other power players who sit down, kind of a meeting of the minds, and you assess the situation. This happens frequently. It’s not an LSU thing. And, it’s pretty obvious that there are some fundamental flaws here. It’s very obvious that there was a hire at offensive coordinator, for a guy probably not qualified to hold that job. Now, I like Joe Sloan, as a person. I like him. I have very, very much been hesitant to throw Joe Sloan under the bus because, number one, Joe Sloan is working from a kind of hamstrung position himself, but, number two, if you think Joe Sloan is the worst offensive coordinator in history, he didn’t hire himself is my point. So, I really stop short of throwing people under the bus when they’re underachieving if we’re not going to acknowledge who put them in the position they’re in. So, that’s Brian Kelly,” Pate said. “You could come back at me from 50,000 feet and say, ‘You know, Josh, if you’re going to be critical of that move, don’t you have to give credit for Blake Baker at defensive coordinator? Or Austin Thomas where he is? Or even a number of really good moves they’ve made lately?’. Well, if you’ve also listened to this show, I’ve been careful how I’ve worded that, because I haven’t really given Brian Kelly credit for those moves because they weren’t Brian Kelly’s moves. They were organizational moves. This right here is a Brian Kelly move. So, Brian Kelly has pressed the wrong buttons down there. He’s pressed some right ones – dude, I’ve been a big supporter of Brian Kelly, okay, so everyone knows that about me. I’ve been called a Kelly homer on this show. But, for that crowd out there that just wanders ferally around the internet that thinks we never criticize anyone? Well, this is Brian Kelly criticism.”

“I imagine, if I know Brian Kelly from a distance like I think I do, that Brian Kelly is presented with the fact that his offensive coordinator is not good enough, his offensive product is not good enough and, while his job is not immediately in jeopardy, he needs to make changes. Especially if they lose this Saturday, he needs to make changes. Now, he could either make those changes, or he could look and say no. And, frankly, I don’t know which direction he’ll go. But I do think that’s the situation down there right now. I do think that’s the dynamic down there right now,” continued Pate. “I think Brian Kelly, if we gave him this microphone, would have a pretty strong case for why he thinks there’s a million other problems down there that aren’t related to Joe Sloan. But, at the end of the day, offensive coordinator is an issue there, and there’s a little stubbornness, probably, from the head of that program to admit that. And, I don’t really know where it’s going to end.”

As for what could lead to an actual firing of Kelly, with a buyout of around $52 million, Pate isn’t sure what it would take for them to actually do that, especially with no current leadership set for the school at LSU. Still, he isn’t dismissing it altogether, especially if they continue to disappoint to whatever extent the rest of this season, with several coaches having already been fired elsewhere, regardless of buyouts, already midseason. And, if they do that, he also warns them to have someone in mind before doing so.

“The LSU situation is very unique,” explained Pate. “They don’t have a president right now, so, even if you wanted to fire Brian Kelly, who in the world is going to fire him? Who’s going to sign off on it? I think they’ll have one in there by, like, mid-November. But, are we really saying, ‘Welcome, New President! Pull this lever and get rid of our head coach’. That stuff is easier said than done.”

“However, remember the climate that we’re in. We’re in a climate where we’re going to see big-time moves all over the place…There is a world where LSU does make this move. But, not right now. There need to be more losses. If there are wins instead of losses, it’s a moot point. I don’t think there will be wins, unless there are fundamental changes made about the offensive structure of that team, and I question whether Brian Kelly will be willing to make those moves, therefore, that’s why I think the losses will come,” Pate said. “Here’s what I think it comes down to, if it comes to that. LSU needs to be aware of what they already have in hand, if they make a move…LSU needs to be smarter than that. LSU is one of the best jobs in America. LSU? Some people would call it the best job in college football. It is a slam dunk, top-five job in college football. And, I said it about Florida, and I will say it even more emphatically about LSU. I think you’d be fairly shocked, given the right circumstances, as to who would take that job if offered. It’s not open right now. And, they’re 5-2, with their playoff destiny in their own hands.”

As for where things actually go off the field for the Tigers, Pate isn’t yet sure, although questioning what the product can continue to be under Kelly. That’s before even concerning himself with the on-field issues, with him, while noting that they’re still in some form of a playoff mix at this moment, expecting at least two more losses this season for LSU.

“They’re not out of anything. It’s a very weird situation right now. LSU is 5-2. If they win out, they’re in the playoff. They may be in Atlanta. But, even if they’re not because they’ve got two conference losses, they’d be in the playoff. I mean, what are we going to do? Fire a guy, who, for all we know, could be headed to the playoff?” said Pate. “I don’t think they are, because I don’t think they’re done losing. But, they haven’t lost yet, so all that action is forced in the future. A&M comes in there Saturday, they go to Alabama after the bye, Arkansas is one of the offenses I’d least like to face right now, and then they go to Oklahoma to finish the season. There are probably more losses coming here…I think they’re going to go 8-4. That’s where I think they’re going to finish up. It’s not good enough, shouldn’t be good enough.”

“It’s very shaky times down in Baton Rouge right now,” stated Pate. “When it comes time to be critical of LSU, I never shy away from it, and it is for a selfish reason because I badly want LSU to win. And I will not lie and pretend like everything is okay when it’s not. Everything is not okay at LSU. It hasn’t been for a while. I just question the long-term sustainability. That’s what I question.”