ESPN analyst Joe Fortenbaugh predicts whether LSU will surpass 8.5 win total in 2025

FanDuel has set the 2025 win total for LSU at 8.5 wins. As Brian Kelly enters Year 4 in Baton Rouge, the question is whether or not his early success was a fluke and if he can lead the Tigers to a successful run this year.

ESPN’s Joe Fortenbaugh is locking in his prediction. The betting expert has LSU reaching their over, but with a caveat as it pertains to their opening showdown with Clemson.

“Win total is 8.5. I bet the over,” Fortenbaugh proclaimed. “Last year was the time to sell high; they were coming off that surprising 9-3 season. Now, we want to buy low at 8-4. [Garrett] Nussmeier’s back. Tied for second in Heisman Trophy odds right now at 9-1. 31 games of experience, which is huge.

“I do think the more prudent approach here is to wait until they lose to Clemson in Week 1, then buy in at the distressed price. Yeah, I said it.”

So while Fortenbaugh thinks LSU will fall in Week 1, he does believe they’ll get to nine wins regardless. That would certainly put them in the College Football Playoff conversation, which is where Kelly is expecting to end up in 2025.

Last year, the Tigers went 9-4, winning the Texas Bowl in the process. While it’s been a solid first three seasons for Kelly, LSU hasn’t made the Playoff since it won the national championship in 2019. That’s something fans in Baton Rouge are hoping will change.

A loss to Clemson in Week 1 wouldn’t doom LSU. Opening games have been an issue for Kelly and the Tigers anyway. LSU is 0-3 against marquee non-conference opponents in their first game of the season under Kelly, losing to Florida State twice and USC last season.

Part of what led to pushback against Brian Kelly in 2024 was that his former team, Notre Dame, played in the College Football Playoff and eventually made it to the national championship. There, the Irish came up short but it also didn’t make for a favorable comparison for Kelly when compared to what he’s done at LSU. The Tigers were playing in the Texas Bowl, but there is still plenty to take moving forward from that.

Time will tell if Joe Fortenbaugh is right or if Brian Kelly and LSU falter in 2025. The Tigers have a lot of hype entering the year, so anything less than sustained success would be disappointing in Baton Rouge, for sure.

— On3’s Dan Morrison contributed to this article.