Greg McElroy makes the case for Michigan State to make a bowl game

Outside of a surprise 11-2 record in 2021, Michigan State has had a losing mark in their other four seasons in this decade, including last year in the Spartans’ debut year under Jonathan Smith. However, going into his second season in East Lansing, Greg McElroy thinks that the Spartans will go bowling again for the first time since 2021.

McElroy recently tiered the Big Ten during an episode of Always College Football. Michigan State was his lone team in tier four, entitled “Bowl Bound” behind the “Spoilers” in tier three and those with “Work To Do” in tier five, as part of that ranking.

“These are teams that we expect to get to the postseason. We expect them to be bowl-bound,” said McElroy. “But, what will they be able to do?”

Again, a lot has changed over the past four seasons for the Spartans. Things turned drastically, on and off the field, coming out of the tenure of Mel Tucker and into Smith’s time leading a program overhaul last offseason. That went into last season where Michigan State won just two of their final nine to finish 5-7. Now, though, in Smith’s second year, McElroy thinks the Spartans start to see more of the turnaround that he proved he could do at his previous stop at Oregon State.

“Michigan State? I love Jonathan Smith, will continue to love Jonathan Smith,” McElroy said. “They kind of hit rock bottom a couple of years ago – one of the worst programs in school history, one of the worst seasons in school history. But you got think this group is going to be much, much better here in the years to come.

“This is a pretty significant transition and you would hope that this is a year where you can get that second-year jump from what we’ve seen from Jonathan Smith in the past.”

That has to start on offense for the Spartans after having two of the nation’s worst units the past pair of seasons, averaging just 17.6 points and 311.9 yards per game. That led McElroy to look at QB Aidan Chiles to make the developments many have expected from him, now as a third-year player in college and second as a full-time starter, as well as some of the pieces around him like his two returning pass-catchers and a re-worked offensive line.

“Aidan Chiles, he is the centerpiece. He’s their quarterback. He was a five-star guy,” McElroy said. “Like I said, Aidan Chiles. He’s the straw that stirs the drink. As a true freshman at Oregon State, there’s a lot of things to like. Last year, there were some parts of his game that you appreciated. He was willing to stretch the field, but he’s got to be better from a situational standpoint. He’s got a big arm. He can throw the ball down the field. He’s pretty elusive. His ability to scramble could be a big difference.

“Seems like it’s time for him to take the next step and maybe this will be the group that can do it. They were one of the worst offenses in the country two years ago. Last year, it wasn’t a whole lot better,” McElroy added. “You’ve got Nick Marsh back at wide receiver. That’s massive. You’ve got Jack Veiling, who was an All Pac-12 player at Oregon State a couple years ago. Those are your three pieces that you’re going to be building around. You’ve got a lot back on the offensive line as well.”

Then, defensively, McElroy noted the need to find some new names for that group having lost four of their top-five in tackles and their three leaders in sacks. That could be the difference-maker for them, especially if the offense doesn’t come along and isn’t any better than it’s been recently.

“If you look at the defense, they have not been quite the same. That’s going to be one thing that they really have to figure out because you lose some real star power in the front seven defensively,” McElroy said. “If they can get that star power back, then Michigan State maybe has a chance to make a little noise, maybe knock off some of these teams that have high hopes this upcoming season.”

However, as is the case for a lot of these teams toward the back of the tiers, Michigan State has a schedule that McElroy thinks lowers their ceiling to not much more than .500. That’s with a non-conference game against Boston College, a team which beat them a year ago out of the ACC, and a conference slate featuring seven of the dozen teams in the tiers ahead of them per McElroy’s rating with five of those seven being contenders to be in or win the CFP.

“They go to ‘SC. Penn State’s at home, Michigan’s at home. At Iowa, at Minnesota. Against UCLA. At Nebraska. Western Michigan, Youngstown State both come to them and then Boston College comes to them as well. They go to Indiana on October 18th,” McElroy said. “So, very difficult spot.”

Michigan State is projected here to be improved, possibly posting its second-best record of the past eight seasons in total going back to 2018. Still, that might only mean so much in what’ll be year two under Smith.

“They are the sole team in the Big Ten in tier for where I think they’ll go bowling but, beyond that, it’s going to be hard for me to envision this as a significant surge,” said McElroy.