Missouri Tigers Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

Veteran college football writer Phil Steele provided his forecast for the Missouri Tigers ahead of the 2025 season. Missouri could be in a good spot due to a talented defense, but there are some questions on offense.

Eli Drinkwitz has had some talented teams at his disposal, particularly over the last two seasons. But, as Steele pointed out, Missouri’s talent might be at its best in the Drinkwitz era.

Can this team truly contend for the SEC? Missouri might not be in the upper tier of the conference, but they’ll surely be a competitive squad.

Missouri Offense

Steele calls for Missouri to be better than anticipated on offense. This is the side of the ball that needs more work, but there’s plenty of promise.

“In 2023, Mizzou had 434 yards per game and 32.5 points per game,” Steele wrote. “Last year, they lost AA RB Schrader and QB Cook was banged up and they dropped to 390 ypg and 28.9 ppg. This year, they lose their QB, top two RBs and all three starting WRs, plus 3 starting OL. You would expect a big step back with those type of losses but they bring in some solid portal additions. OC Kirby Moore will mold a productive offense and have them better than expected and my computer is calling for 364 ypg and 26.1 ppg.”

Missouri Defense

This is an elite defense based on the numbers. So going into 2025, if you face the Missouri defense, you might have problems.

“In ‘23, ten of top 13 tacklers returned to the Death Row defense,” Steele wrote. My computer called for them to allow 335 ypg and they allowed 336! Last year they lost their DC but made a solid hire in Corey Batoon, whose South Alabama defense held foes to 70 ypg below their average (14). They did lose 5 NFL DCs (1, 2, 3, 5, 5) and figured to take a step back but my computer said they would allow just 322 ypg and 22.7 ppg. They opened with B2B shutouts for first time since Don Faurot’s team did it in 1935. The Tigers nearly hit the numbers on the head with 318 ypg and 20.4 ppg! This year they have 9 starters back and have 0 players lost to the draft and this should be one of the nation’s best defenses.”

Missouri 2025 Forecast

As far as how Missouri finishes this season, it’s fair to expect 10 wins again. But will they actually reach that mark for a third straight year? Steele has a little skepticism.

“The Tigers had been exactly .500 in the four years spanning 2019-22,” Steele wrote. “Eli Drinkwitz had 15 returning starters in ‘23 for his most veteran team. Their Vegas Over’Under win total was 6.5 and a lot of factors were pointing up. At 4-0, Missouri was ranked for the first time since 2019 and had a great year, only losing to LSU and Georgia in close game and beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl for an 11-2 and No. 8 AP Finish! Last year, the Tigers drew the best schedule of the SEC and faced 6 teams that had a first year HC while avoiding Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU. They did rate a -5.0 on my SMI, had 4 Net Close wins (all signs pointing down). They were favored in 10 games and suffered blowout losses to A&M and Bama …(but finished with a) 10 win season and were No. 22 AP.

“(Missouri) is 10-1 in one score games the last two years. It is the third time in Missouri history they have B2B 10 win seasons. The Tigers open with 6 home games but I think it will be tough to make it 3 straight years of 10+ wins. Drinwitz has called this his ‘most talented’ team and they do have one of the nation’s top defenses.”