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North Carolina Football: ESPN releases game-by-game predictions for every UNC game in 2022

James Fletcher IIIby: James Fletcher III07/26/22jdfletch3
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Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

After losing starting quarterback Sam Howell to the NFL, North Carolina has watched a battle for the successor. As Jacolby Criswell and Drake Maye compete for the job, the rest of the Tar Heels roster looks to bounce back from a 6-7 record in 2021 and cement their place high in the ACC standings.

With Josh Downs returning on offense and Tony Grimes returning on defense, there is plenty reason for optimism amid the massive amount of turnover and outside distraction dominating the offseason headlines around the ACC.

ESPN’s FPI projections for North Carolina

Florida A&M (Home): 8/27 at 7:15 p.m. on ACC Network

ESPN FPI win probability: 99.6%

Appalachian State (Away): 9/3 at 11:00 a.m. on ESPNU

ESPN FPI win probability: 62.4%

Georgia State (Away): 9/10 at 11:00 a.m. on ESPNU

ESPN FPI win probability: 83.4%

Notre Dame (Home): 9/24 at TBD on TBD

ESPN FPI win probability: 43.3%

Virginia Tech (Home): 10/1 at TBD on TBD

ESPN FPI win probability: 86.0%

Miami (Away): 10/8 at TBD on TBD

ESPN FPI win probability: 28.1%

Duke (Away): 10/15 at TBD on TBD

ESPN FPI win probability: 87.9%

Pittsburgh (Home): 10/29 at TBD on TBD

ESPN FPI win probability: 62.1%

Virginia (Away): 11/5 at TBD on TBD

ESPN FPI win probability: 68.2%

Wake Forest (Away): 11/12 at TBD on TBD

ESPN FPI win probability: 48.5%

Georgia Tech (Home): 11/19 at TBD on TBD

ESPN FPI win probability: 85.2%

NC State (Home): 11/25 at TBD on TBD

ESPN FPI win probability: 62.2%

North Carolina starts the season with an FCS opponent before two non-conference road games against regional schools. The Tar Heels then face their toughest non-conference opponent when Notre Dame travels to town. They avoid Clemson in the conference late but must face reigning division champions Pittsburgh and fast-rising Miami on the way to a potential conference title.

The Tar Heels are favored in nine of their 12 games entering the season although the algorithm changes the odds as the season progresses.